An Introduc5on: Climate Change Adapta5on

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1 Dr. Joseph Hagg Science Officer Adapta/on Scotland An Introduc5on: Climate Change Adapta5on 13 th February 2013 contact:

2 Adapta5on Scotland Partnership: Increase the resilience of organisa0ons and infrastructure in Scotland to meet the challenges and opportuni0es presented by the impacts of climate change

3 Part One: An Introduc:on to Adapta:on

4 change is constant social poli5cal environmental climate economic legal technological

5 change is constant s 2050s 2080s 22 nd Century

6 change is constant s 2050s 2080s 22 nd Century

7 change is constant 1929 Clean Air (Scotland) Act Living Memory 1930s 1960s 1990s s M. Richardson Edinburgh City Archives capital collec:ons Billion Billion Billion Billion Billion Billion

8 change is constant 1929 Clean Air (Scotland) Act Living Memory 1930s 1960s 1990s s M. Richardson Edinburgh City Archives capital collec:ons Billion Billion Billion Billion Billion Billion

9 Adapta5on to Climate Change Adapta5on: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected clima:c change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportuni:es. Scotland s Climate Change Adapta:on Framework (2009) The climate is changing and we need to be ready adapta:on means we prepare for the future to deal with threats and take advantage of opportuni:es.

10 The Challenge The Vision The Journey How will our climate change? What impact will this have on us? What would a climate ready place look like? How do we get there?

11 The Challenge The Vision The Journey

12

13 The Challenge The Vision The Journey

14 The Challenge How will our climate change? What impact will this have on us? Climate Informa5on: Understanding Impacts: Risk Assessment:

15 The Vision What would a climate ready place look like? Our Response to the Challenge: What should we do??? Visions and Placemaking:

16 The Vision

17 The Vision

18 The Vision

19 The Vision

20 The Vision Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo- edited by Land Use Consultants

21 The Vision Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo- edited by Land Use Consultants

22 The Vision What would a climate ready place look like? Our Response to the Challenge: What should we do??? Visions and Placemaking: Link to Other Priori5es:

23 The Journey How do we realise the vision? What is the role of planning? What direct measures can planning take? How can planning support other ini5a5ves? How do we ensure on- the- ground ac5on?

24 what are we doing today? Presenta:on: Climate Informa:on (coming up) Ac:vity 1: Understanding Impacts The Challenge Ac:vity 2: Developing a Vision The Vision The Journey TAYplan Workshop 2 WARNING: This is an introduc:on to s:mulate thinking unfortunately adapta:on to climate change cannot be solved in a workshop!!

25 Part Two: Informa:on on Climate Change

26

27

28 Arc:c Sea Ice Minimum Jetstream North America 2012 Global Weather

29 We ve already seen the global climate change 4 3 Global Surface Warming ( C) Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR- 4

30 Recent change in mean temperature (1961 to 2006)

31 Recent change in rainfall (1961 to 2006)

32 Rainfall in 2012 Annual Spring Summer Autumn December

33 Rainfall has increased over the last 50 years... This increase is mostly due to heavier rainfall on wet days (rather than more wet days) Winter ( ) Source: CRU info sheet 15 Change in Total Precipita:on Change in Number of Wet Days Change in Average Precipita:on On Wet Days In London extreme rainfall events occurred once every 30 years before and once every 6 years since then... source: Lloyds (2010)

34 Are we adapted to today s climate? Adapta5on to Present Climate or Weather Adapta5on to Future Climate Change

35 Projec5ons of Future Global Climate Global Surface Warming ( C) High Growth (A2) Medium Growth (A1B) Low Growth (B1) Constant CO 2 (held at 2000 levels) Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR- 4

36 What do we know about Scotland s Future Climate? Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate and how humans are changing it and we con:nue to improve on this. Scotland has access to world leading informa:on the UK Climate Projec:ons - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. h`p://ukclimateprojec5ons.defra.gov.uk/

37 The key long- term climate change trends for Scotland are: Average summer is hojer and drier Average winter / autumn is milder and wejer Weather will remain variable (e.g. year- to- year), it may become more variable We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipita:on events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise

38 à hojer summers à à drier summers à à milder winters à 2050s

39 UKCP09: Probability Level 90% Projected Change in Mean Temperature (ºC) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 Jul likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 5 Jun 10% Aug change in mean temperature (ºC) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 hojer cooler

40 UKCP09: Probability Level 90% Projected Change in Mean Temperature (ºC) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 Jul likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 5 Jun 10% Aug change in mean temperature (ºC) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 hojer cooler

41 What difference do a few degrees make? Isle of Wight 2.6 C warmer in summer than the Dundee (in baseline ) 2050s So our summer temperatures may be more similar to those in southern England by the 2050s s... and unlike anything currently experienced in the UK by the 2080s

42 UKCP09: Probability Level 90% 60 Projected Change in Mean Precipita:on (%) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 we`er we`er Nov likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 50 Jan Feb 10% 40 Dec change in mean precipita:on (%) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct wejer drier drier

43 Changes in extreme rainfall

44 Are we loading the climate dice for extreme weather events?

45 The sea is rising... ITV 2008 Flood ITV 2008 Flood

46 UKCP09 Rela:ve Sea Level Rise Dundee 1.0 Relative Sea Level Rise (m) High Emissions (A1FI) Medium Emissions (A1B) Low Emissions (B1) 74.4 cm the range reflects scien:fic uncertainty in models High Emissions (A1FI) 0.0 Medium Emissions (A1B) Low Emissions (B1) cm Should we consider the upper es:mates from UKCP09?

47 Records from Tidal Gauges in Scopsh Ports Recent analysis of :de gauge records at Scopsh Ports indicates that sea level is now increasing around Scotland and the rate of sea level rise appears to be increasing since these recent trends would put Scotland on the 95% frequency high emissions of UKCP09 model outputs Rennie & Hansom (2010)

48

49 How does sea level rise impact on the coast? Sea level rise can lead to instability, erosion and reworking of coasts Rates of sea level rise >3-4 mm year can lead to widespread reorganisa:on of coastal landforms The response of a coastline will depend on the balance between sediment supply and sea level rise... retreat will occur when there is inadequate sediment supply to maintain the coast under condi:ons of sea level rise Most Scopsh coasts are sediment- supply limited due to terrestrial condi:ons (limi:ng erosion), natural coastal processes, and human altera:on of coastal sediment movement (breakwaters and embankments)

50 reworking??? complicated

51 The key long- term climate change trends for Scotland are: Average summer is hojer and drier Average winter / autumn is milder and wejer Weather will remain variable (e.g. year- to- year), it may become more variable We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipita:on events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise

52 - please contact us - adapta5onscotland@sniffer.org.uk Adapta5on Scotland Partnership:

GAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7

GAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7 FYE 09/30/92 JULY 92 0.00 254,550.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254,550.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254,550.00 AUG 10,616,710.31 5,299.95 845,656.83 84,565.68 61,084.86 23,480.82 339,734.73 135,893.89 67,946.95

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