Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future

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1 Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future Dr. Cameron Wake Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) University of New Hampshire 62nd Annual Meeting of the Northeastern Weed Science Society Philadelphia, PA 8 Jan 2008

2 Vostok Ice Core - Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) CO , , , ,000 Years before 2000 AD 0 Petit et al., 1999

3 Vostok Ice Core - Carbon Dioxide & Temperature Temperature 5 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) CO Temperature ( o C) , , , ,000 Years before 2000 AD 0 Petit et al., 1999

400 Clean Energy & Efficiency Current 200 400,000

4 Vostok Ice Core - Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 1000 Business as Usual Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) Clean Energy & Efficiency Current , , , ,000 0 Years Before 2100 AD IPCC 2001

Global Temperature 1880-2005 (meteorological stations) Temperature Anomaly ( o F) 1 0-1

5 Global Temperature (meteorological stations) Temperature Anomaly ( o F) Annual Mean 5-year Mean Year

Annual Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: 1900-2002 47

8 o F warming over 33 years 41 1900 1920 1940 1960 Year 1980 2000 Time-series

6 Annual Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: Temperature ( o F) o F warming over 103 years 1.8 o F warming over 33 years Year Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada

7 Winter Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: Temperature ( o F) o F warming over 103 years 4.3 o F warming over 33 years Year Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada

4.3 o F Winter Temperature Increase 43 Boston 42 Latitude ( o N) 41 40 New York

8 4.3 o F Winter Temperature Increase 43 Boston 42 Latitude ( o N) New York Philadelphia 39 Washington, DC Winter (DJF) mean Temperature ( o F)

9 Trends in Mean Winter Temperature ( o C/decade) Burakowski et al., 2008

10 Trends in Mean Winter Temperature ( o C/decade) Burakowski et al., 2008

11 Trends in Minimum Winter Temperature ( o C/decade) Burakowski et al., 2008

12 Trends in Minimum Winter Temperature ( o C/decade) Burakowski et al., 2008

13 Trends in Minimum Winter Temperature ( o C/decade) December January February March Winter Burakowski et al., 2008

14 Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation Trends: Percent Change in Extreme Precipitation Events The extreme precipitation trend was calculated from a linear regression of number of

15 Winter/Spring (1 Jan - 31 May) Center-of-Volume Dates All data from unregulated rivers; Hodgkins et al.,

Average Ice Out Day Trend 1925-2005 130 (27 Lakes) 120 Ice Out (Julian Day) 110 100 90 4.5 days earlier over 81 years 8.

16 Average Ice Out Day Trend (27 Lakes) 120 Ice Out (Julian Day) days earlier over 81 years 8.0 days earlier over 36 years Year Ice Out data from Hodgkins et al., 2002 and at:

17 Lake Champlain Ice-In Dates: days later over 190 years Ice-In (Julian Day) Year 33 times lake has not frozen over ( ) 78% since 1950; 54% since 1970 Data from NWS Burlington erh noaa gov/er/btv/climo/lakeclose html

18 Spatial Variation of Growing Season (28 o F) Trends % stations - longer growing season 20% stations - 20 days longer The growing season trend was calculated from a linear regression of annual average i l th f h t ti

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists Geographic Scope Nine Northeast

19 Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists Geographic Scope Nine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania Peer Review Climate Dynamics, papers in Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change, 2008

20 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

21 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Downscale Global Projections to Regional Level

22 Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Rising Annual Temperatures temperature change ( o F) observations higher emissions lower emissions Higher: o F Lower: o F 2 o F warming since 1970

23 Summer heat index: How hot summers will feel in Massachuttes

24 Increasing winter precipitation Winter Precipitation Change (%) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% OBS Higher emissions Lower emissions 1960s DROUGHT -40% As temperatures rise, more falling as rain, less as snow

expected to become more intense -periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become

25 Extreme Precipitation Events Increase Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast Under both emissions scenarios -rainfall is expected to become more intense -periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent Bridge over Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NH May credit: Associated Press

26 Reduced Snow on Ground Days

27 Projected Rise in Global Sea Level

28 Impacts on Agriculture Dairy Crops Pests & Weeds

29 Impacts on Agriculture: Dairy

30 Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Traditional Fruit Crops May Suffer in a Warmer Climate

31 Impacts on Agriculture: Weeds & Pests A Longer Growing Season Comes with a Price..

32 Greenland Ice Sheet Melting? Tipping Points?

33 What path will we take to the future? Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. Robert Frost

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack