Climate change projections for Ontario: an updated synthesis for policymakers and planners

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1 Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Climate change projections for Ontario: an updated synthesis for policymakers and planners Shannon Fera and Adam Hogg Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Adaptation Canada, April 2016

2 Outline What projections are MNRF currently using for summary reporting and analysis? What are Ontario s known climate trends? How are trends impacting Ontario s Natural Resources? How is MNRF accessing these projections? How can we improve our understanding of Climate Change to better manage natural resources?

3 Updating the 2007 report *Updated science from AR4 to AR5 models

4 Projections Currently Used By MNRF for Analysis and Reporting Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) climate projections Statistical downscaling method: relationship between GCM/local elevation and local station data 5 x 5 km grids Advantages: Less computationally intensive Quicker and easier to create derivative variables (e.g. frost) Disadvantages: Weather station density Does the statistical relationship developed using historical data will hold under the different forcing conditions of possible future climates?

5 How The Data Were Used Ontario relevant, created using GIS Primary watershed summaries Great Lakes sub-basin watersheds 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 8.5) Averages and ranges of projected temperatures and precipitation for each region Comparisons to historical trends The results were published in a public facing Climate Change Series Publication

6 Ontario s Climate Trends: Temperature Ontario temperatures are increasing Spring and winter show greater increases in temperature

7 Ontario s Climate Trends: Precipitation Ontario is getting wetter Winter snowfall increases in southern Ontario near the Great Lakes snow-belt areas, likely due to shorter Great Lakes ice season Winter snowfall in the north is likely decreasing [SOURCE: : Mekis & Vincent,

8

9 Winter warming is expected to exceed summer warming across Ontario For example, the Hudson Bay Basin is projected to experience between 3 and 9 C increase in average winter temperatures compared to between 2 and 5 C increase in average summer temperatures by the 2050s 9

10

11 Ontario is expected to experience overall increases in precipitation Parts of the nelson River Basin and Hudson Bay Basin may become drier while the Great Lakes basin may become progressively wetter by the 2050s More precipitation is projected in the winter; summers are projected to be drier on average. 11

12 Climate change stressors considered Warmer summers Increase in summer air, surface, water and soil temperatures Greater variability in summer temperatures and increases in severity and frequency of high temperature extremes Changing precipitation Spatial variability in change to precipitation Changes in timing of precipitation, with more winter precipitation (some times as rain or freezing rain) Changes in snow depth Warmer winters Less cold, shorter winter season Greater variability in winter temperature, more freeze/thaw events Changes in timing of shoulder seasons and timing of spring melt Extreme Events Higher rates of precipitation, including greater flooding frequency Increase in storminess (severe storms, wind/ice storms) Greater frequency of heat events and droughts Warmer water Increase in water temperatures inland and in Great Lakes and streams Changes to lake stratification and other chemical, physical or biological characteristics of water bodies Sea level rise Increase in water levels in oceans, including Hudson Bay Greater frequency of waves, coastal storm surges and extreme water levels at the shore

13 Impact of Climate Trends on Ontario ecosystems Polar bear Hudson Bay ice melting 1 week / decade earlier Less sea ice makes seals available for shorter period Boreal forest health Freezing damage due to spring temp. variability Bud damage affecting boreal species survival and growth Fire Longer fire seasons in northern Ontario Increase in lightening-caused fires in northwestern Ontario Fish range shifts Fish shifted north by 12-17km /decade in last 30 years Coldwater species (e.g. Brook Trout, Lk Trout, Walleye) most vulnerable Peacock et al Man et al Albert-Green 2013; Woolford et al Alofs et al

14 Improving Our Understanding of Climate Change to Better Manage Ontario s Natural Resources Increase station density Incorporation of precipitation models that better reflect Ontario s globally unique climate system Projections of frost Integration of improved precipitation models with federal drought mapping

15 Applications Summary report: publicly availably summary of key trends, presented by maps, graphs and charts Hard copy available from CC program Electronic available: cation_summary.php?pubid=59 Full data set: available to researchers and others undertaking analyses of specific impacts on natural resources

16 Summary Ontario is getting warmer, wetter and experiencing less precipitation as snow Wildlife, forests and fish are all impacted by this MNRF summarized, analyzed and interpreted CFS climate projections to inform the government and the public about potential impacts of climate change Focus should now be on: Improving the monitoring station network Frost projections Using improved precipitation models to generate MNRF relevant information

17 Questions? Ontario.ca Ontario.ca Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry

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