The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services - NCCS

Transcription

1 The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services - NCCS Extremes Products - Dissemination Eirik J. Førland, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Impact assessment consultation workshop, Budapest, 22. June, 2015 Foto: Einar Egeland

2 KRIGiS: Vulnerability / Impact Studies with a focus on: Tourism Critical Infrastructures Bunntekst Norwegian Meteorological Institute

3 TOURISM Førland et al., 2012: Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections. Tourism Management, 2012 Norwegian Meteorological Institute

4 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES Bunntekst Norwegian Meteorological Institute

5 Knowledge gap Climatologists knowledge Decision makers information needs

6 What do the users need??? Variables/ indices? Time horizon? Scales (time and space)? Uncertainty Temperature? Snow? Rain? Wind? Freezing degree days? Growing season? Droughts? 20 yrs? 50 yrs? 100 yrs? Regional values? Local values? one number? probability distribution? high/low? Monthly? Daily? Hourly? Return periods? Climatology? 6

7 Norwegian Center for Climate Services (NCCS): Provide decision makers in Norway with information relevant for climate adaptation User needs Extremes Hot days Heavy rainfall Products General projections Gridded maps Dissemination Communication with users From science to services

8 Norwegian Centre for Climate Services A cooperation between MET Norway Norwegian Water Resources and energy Directorate Uni Research (Bergen) The Norwegian Environment Agency is represented in the board 8

9 We need to plan for future climate change in some ways we are not even adapted to the present climate Meteorologisk institutt

10 Important user categories - 1: Governmental institutions and authorities: - National to municipality level - Roads, railways, coastal infrastructure etc. Sectors/Industries, e.g.: - Energy - Buildings - Health - Primary industries 10

11 Important user categories - 2: Climate impact research - Physical nature - Ecosystems - Society

12 Different users/different needs: The engineer needs one number : A design value to avoid this The municipality planner needs a map showing how close to a river to allow e.g. dwelling areas The impact researcher may need detailed and consistent climate projections of a number of variables or indices 12

13 Spatial resolution: Scales in space and time - Downscaling is important for most users - Applying both RCMs and ESDs is reassuring Time resolution: 13 - Global/regional models takes us down to hours, but minute values are used for calculating design values for precip. - Possible to take the last bit with empirical functions? mm years return period 1 min. 2 min. 3 min. 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 45 min. 60 min. 90 min. 120 min. 180 min. 360 min. 720 min min.

14 Bias adjustment Bias adjustment of climate projections is necessary for - Calculating indices like growing season, heating degree days etc. - Hydrological modelling, incl. snow conditions Bargains: - Reproducing present climate vs. keeping the climate signal - Taking care of the tails in the distribution vs. computer time ECH-B2 14

15 Examples of NCCS products 15 Norwegian Meteorological Institute

16 General projections: Temperature H M L Annual temperature (degc) Norwegian Meteorological Institute

17 Klimagrid v1.1 Temperature Residual interpolation: ^ n { α + α β ( ) + α β ( ) + + α ( )} t ( u0 ) = λ t(ui ) + i u0 2 2 u0... mβm u0 i= 1 Kriging (or any spatial interpolation method) External trend/drift (linear regression) 17 Correlation coefficients 0,400 0,200 0,000-0,200-0,400-0,600-0,800-1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LAT Month LONG ALT DEM_MEAN DEM_MIN Coefficients terrain 0,004 0, ,002-0,004-0,006-0,008-0, Month ALT DEM_MEAN DEM_MIN LAT LONG 0,2 0,1 0-0,1-0,2-0,3-0,4-0,5 Coefficients position Norwegian Meteorological Institute

18 Number of «Warm days» Tmean >20C Bunntekst Norwegian Meteorological Institute

19 Bunntekst Norwegian Meteorological Institute

20 General projections: Precipitation Annual precipitation Period: Norwegian Meteorological Institute

21 We need to plan for future climate;- but in some ways we are not even adapted to present climate! Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

22 Design values for rainfall (IDF-statistics) are freely available at the NIFS and NCCS web-sites ( Varighet (minutter) År ,4 8,1 9,9 13,5 15,4 16,9 20,7 23,4 28,5 34,6 41,5 5 7, ,7 18,8 21,4 23,1 26,7 29,5 35,4 41,9 50,1 10 8,7 12,9 16,3 22,4 25,5 27,3 30,6 33, ,1 55,3 20 9,9 14,7 18,7 25,7 29,3 31,2 34,4 37,3 44,3 51,8 60, ,3 15,3 19,5 26,8 30,5 32,5 35,6 38,4 45,6 53,1 62, ,5 17,1 21,9 30,1 34,3 36,4 39,3 42,2 49,9 57,9 67, ,7 18,8 24,3 33, ,2 42,9 45,9 54,2 62,6 71, ,9 20,6 26,6 36,7 41,8 44,1 46,6 49,6 58, ,9 22 Foto: Mai-Linn Finstad

23 1-h rainfall for return period 200 years

24 1-hour rainfall Oslo-Blindern Bunntekst Meteorologisk institutt

25 Climate factors for Norwegian regions: Element: Heavy* 1-day rainfall (0,05 %-value, i.e. 1-2 events/year) Time slices: From ( ) to day (*0,05 percentil) «Klima i Norge, 2009» RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Region Med L - H Med L - H Med L- H R1: Østfold 1,19 1,19-1,26 1,10 1,04-1,23 1,19 1,14-1,32 R2: Østlandet 1,14 1,08-1,19 1,11 1,04-1,19 1,17 1,14-1,30 R3: Sørlandet 1,11 1,05-1,19 1,08 1,01-1,15 1,14 1,11-1,23 R4: Sørvestlandet 1,18 1,09-1,23 1,06 1,03-1,13 1,16 1,11-1,22 R5: Sunnhordland/Ryfylke 1,14 1,03-1,26 1,07 1,02-1,12 1,14 1,08-1,21 R6: Nordhordl/ Sogn&Fj. 1,13 0,97-1,28 1,08 1,02-1,13 1,14 1,08-1,22 R7: Dovre/ Nord Østerdal 1,21 1,10-1,30 1,11 1,06-1,24 1,21 1,15-1,40 R8: Møre & Romsdal 1,14 1,01-1,31 1,10 1,02-1,13 1,18 1,04-1,21 R9: Inntrøndelag 1,20 1,06-1,29 1,13 1,03-1,18 1,22 1,11-1,28 R10: Trøndelag / Helgeland 1,14 1,01-1,33 1,11 1,04-1,14 1,21 1,10-1,24 R11: Hålogaland 1,17 1,08-1,23 1,13 1,07-1,19 1,23 1,09-1,30 R12: Finnmarksvidda 1,21 1,05-1,31 1,18 1,14-1,32 1,27 1,17-1,42 R13: Varanger 1,26 1,08-1,35 1,17 1,13-1,36 1,29 1,18-1,48 1,1 1,3 1,0 1,4 1,1 1,2 1,0 1,4 1,1 1,3 1,0 1, Meteorologisk institutt

26 Communication with key users is crucial! Meetings/seminars with homogeneous user groups Working together in projects to define the needs Collaboration on tailoring products 26

27 Communication with users 1. The Climate Watch : A three-level phone and service 2. Seminars/ meetings focused on specific user groups 3. Presently a web-site with limited contents, but a major activity is klima@met.no 27 Norwegian Meteorological Institute

28 Thanks for your attention!