Climate Change Projections for Newfoundland and Labrador Implications for Our Economy. NEIA Conference October 10 th 2013.

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1 Climate Change Projections for Newfoundland and Labrador Implications for Our Economy NEIA Conference October 10 th 2013 Jackie Janes, ADM

2 Overview To provide a high-level overview of the climate change projections for Newfoundland and Labrador To provide key findings from the projections and how this information can be used by business for planning and decision-making

3 1. Introduction

4 Climate change is happening Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is growing Approaching dangerous levels Global temperatures are rising Temperatures at highest level in 4,000 years Provincial temperatures are rising Warmest years on record have occurred in the past 15 years Increasing number of hurricanes and tropical storms hitting the province

5 Temperatures in the province are rising and are at record levels Degrees Celsius Average 5 year temperature change, relative to average. Temperatures at highest level on record (since World War II) St. John's Gander Stephenville Goose Bay Source: Calculated from Environment Canada historical data. Actual temperature levels vary by location; however, deviation from the average is similar for each location.

6 We are subject to twice as many tropical storms and hurricanes now than in the past Average of 6 storms per 10 year period Average of 11.5 storms per 10 year period Tropical Storm Hurricane Includes tropical storms and hurricanes registered by the Canadian Hurricane Center, Environment Canada. Hurricanes includes those that made landfall only.

7 Why did we do this project? Because climate change is happening Changes will be significant over time, and will impact different interests in different ways Governments, businesses, communities and individuals need better information to plan for the future: Better information leads to better planning and better decision making Better decision making reduces risks and costs

8 What is the study about? Development of climate projections 19 climate variables projected (e.g. avg. temperature, max precipitation) Projections cover both Newfoundland and Labrador Projections for mid 21st century ( ) Down-scaled from global climate projection models 50 km by 50 km projection area 18 climate stations used for projections Site-specific data available Projections produced by MUN climatologist, Dr. Joel Finnis

9 2. Key Findings

10 Temperatures are projected to rise by between 2º and 4º C by mid 21st century Change in Degrees Celsius Winter Spring Winter Spring Summer Fall Summer Fall On a global basis, there is relatively little change across centuries. For example, scientists estimate that the temperature during the last Ice Age was only 5.5ºC lower than present temperatures.

11 Precipitation events, on average, will be more intense particularly during fall and winter Change in mm/day for those days with precipitation Winter Spring Winter Spring Summer Fall Summer Fall

12 Other Findings Temperature rise will mean fewer days with frost, meaning a shorter winter Temperature rise will result in more growing degree days, meaning longer growing seasons There will be more days with high levels of precipitation (10 mm or more) Maximum precipitation over a 3-day period is expected to increase in all The average dry spell is expected to decrease in most seasons Extreme precipitation events will increase for all locations

13 Example #1: Rising temperatures may increase the incidence of human illness from infectious diseases Average summer temperature on the Northern Peninsula is expected to grow by about 1.9 to 2.2 ºC by mid century May result in variations to patterns of diseases caused by bacteria, viruses and other pathogens carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and animals

14 Example #2: Warmer temperatures may increase aquaculture productivity but also bring risks to fish health Average temperature from spring to fall at Bay d Espoir is expected to grow by over 2ºC by mid century Warmer temperatures could result in warmer coastal waters shifting aquaculture productivity Warmer temperatures could also result in the increased detection of infectious pathogens and diseases harmful to fish health

15 Example #3: Impacts on transportation infrastructure from higher levels of precipitation Maximum potential rainfall over 3 days in St. John s is expected to increase by 7% to 8% Potential for more flooding from higher rainfall and higher amounts of snowfall from winter storms

16 Example #4: Reduced demand for energy in an isolated community Heating degree days correlates to the amount of heat available necessary to heat buildings in cold weather In Nain, the number of heating degree days is expected to decrease by about 12% by mid century

17 Example #5: The winter tourism season may shorten Average winter temperature in Gander and Corner Brook is expected to be at least 2.7ºC warmer by mid century Warmer winters will reduce the period of snow cover, potentially shortening snowmobile and skiing seasons However, due to increased temperatures, this may also extend the summer tourism season

18 Example #6: Agriculture and forestry productivity will improve, but also bring invasive species and pests Growing degree days correlates to the amount of heat available for industries such as forestry and agriculture In Grand Falls-Windsor, the number of growing degree days will increase by about 30% by mid century Will mean longer and more productive agriculture and forestry seasons, and a shift in vegetation types May also mean a later start to the big game hunting season, the presence of new species, and increases in pests

19 Example #7: Coastal erosion resulting from stronger storms Stephenville area is susceptible to coastal erosion Rate of coastal erosion is impacted by storm frequency and intensity Number of precipitation events with 10+ mm per year expected to increase from 47.3 to 51.3 by mid century

20 Example #8: Planning for extreme weather events for a town near a major river In Happy Valley-Goose Bay: For 1-in-2 year storms, precipitation is expected to increase by about 12% For 1-in-5 year storms, precipitation is expected to increase by almost 15% Currently, a 1-in-100 year storm is expected to bring 81.2 mm of precipitation over a 24 hour period by mid century, a 1-in-25 year storm is expected to bring this level of precipitation

21 3. Case Studies

22 Case Study #1: Rio Tinto Alcan INDUSTRY METALS & MINING EMPLOYEES 22,000 REVENUE US$60.32 BILLION ADAPTATION MEASURE Development of a climate change sensitivity framework BUSINESS BENEFITS Identification of potential risks Potential to gain a competitive advantage Demonstrating leadership in climate change strengthens our long-term competitiveness. - Nigel Steward, Vice President of Carbon, Energy and Climate Change (Rio Tinto Alcan)

23 Case Study #2: Coca-Cola INDUSTRY FOOD & BEVERAGE EMPLOYEES 6,300 in Canada PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 236 Single Servings (8 oz) ADAPTATION MEASURE Water Neutral Policy BUSINESS BENEFITS Maintaining Competitive Position We recognize that climate change has the potential to significantly affect the sustainability of our business and supply chain. - Nicola Kettlitz, President, Coca-Cola Canada

24 Case Study #3: Whistler Blackcomb INDUSTRY ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION EMPLOYEES 3500 REVENUE C$224 MILLION ADAPTATION MEASURE Diversification from a two to a four-season guest experience BUSINESS BENEFITS Expanded product offerings, reaching new customers What we build today must ensure climate change resilience tomorrow. - Arthur DeJong, Mountain Planner and Environmental Resource Manager, Whistler Blackcomb

25 4. Conclusion

26 Recap of findings Climate change is happening Temperatures are rising Precipitation amounts are increasing Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently This will have an impact on all businesses that operate in Newfoundland & Labrador

27 Resources Information will be available at TurnBackTheTide.ca and through the Water Resource Portal For further information please contact: Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading T. (709) E.

28 Thank You