SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia: A Regional Initiative to Provide Regional Climate Change Information and Capacity Building
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1 SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia: A Regional Initiative to Provide Regional Climate Change Information and Capacity Building Liew Ju Neng SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia School of Environment and Natural Sciences Faculty of Science and Technology National University of Malaysia 14 Countries, 18 Institutions involved in the project ( Workshop for Capacity Building on Climate Change Impact Assessments and Adaptation Planning in the Asia-Pacific Region, January 2016, Manila.
2 Projected Mean Surface Temperature & Mean Precipitation by end of 21 st Century The temperature increase during the last 100 years was about 0.8 o C. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
3 Background Local climate projection facilitate local CC impact assessment. Global > Local scale cascading of modeling processes. Uncertainties are introduce at each modeling levels. Run multiple downscaling simulations and create ensemble with uncertainty ranges.
4 Courtesy: F. Giorgi
5 CORDEX domains East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia
6 Critically lack of studies on impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia region Table 24.2 IPCC AR5 WGII The amount of information supporting conclusion regarding observed and projected impacts (Chapter 24 (Asia), IPCC WGII AR5 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
7 Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) Initial Member Countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand First Workshop hosted by VNU Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam, 2-3 Aug 2012
8 SEACLID/CORDEX SEA objectives Create a platform for scientists (especially young scientists) within and outside the SEA region to collaborate on issues related to regional climate downscaling; On a task-sharing basis, carry out a joint regional climate downscaling activity over a common SEA domain with RegCM4 (and other RCMs) using a number of CMIP5 GCMs and RCP scenarios; Collectively analyze model performances, create an ensemble of regional climate projection scenarios for the SEA region, and establish a web portal and data center for efficient data dissemination (ESGF); Narrow knowledge gaps related to regional climate change in SEA by increasing peer-review scientific and policy-relevant publications and strengthen research capacity and capability, particularly in numerical regional climate modeling.
9 Malaysia The Philippines Vietnam Indonesia SEACLID/CORD EX Southeast Asia Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR UK Australia Sweden South Korea Hong Kong Germany Japan
10 CORDEX-SEA Domain (finalized) East-West : ~81.14 E to ~ E North-South : ~15.04 S to ~ N Grid : 0.22 x 0.22 Complexity: Scattered land mass distribution. Deep-convection. diurnal cycle. strong intra-seasonal and inter-annual modulation. Observation data scarcity.
11 GCMs, RCMs, RCPs and Country Assignments Country GCM Institution & Country developed the GCM RCP RCM Vietnam CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Philippines HadGEM2 Hadley Centre, UK RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand MPI-ESM-MR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand EC-Earth EC-Earth consortium RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Indonesia CSIRO MK3.6 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia IPSL-CM5A-LR Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia GFDL-ESM2M GFDL, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 South Korea HadGEM2-AO Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF Sweden CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RCA3 Sweden HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO, UK RCP8.5,4.5 RCA3 Australia CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5 CCAM Australia CCSM4 NCAR, USA RCP8.5 CCAM Australia ACCESS1.3 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5 CCAM Hong Kong SAR CCSM4 or CESM NCAR, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF United Kingdom HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 PRECIS Germany MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 ROM Japan MRI-AGCM3.2 Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Japan RCP8.5,4.5 NHRCM
12 CORDEX Southeast Asia Simulation Progress (1 st Jan 2016) Country GCM Baseline run Vietnam CNRM-CM5 Completed Completed RCP4.5 (continuous run until 2100) RCP8.5 (continuous run until 2100) Delayed by problem with boundary data Philippines HadGEM2 Completed 31 December March 2016 Thailand MPI-ESM-MR Completed Completed Completed Thailand EC-Earth Completed Completed Completed Indonesia CSIRO MK3.6 Completed Completed Completed Malaysia CanESM2 Completed Completed Completed Malaysia IPSL-CM5A-LR Completed 31 December 2015 Malaysia GFDL-ESM2M Completed Completed Completed South Korea HadGEM2-AO Completed Completed Completed Sweden CNRM-CM5 Completed Completed Completed Sweden HadGEM2-ES Completed Completed Completed Expected to start in January 2016 (BC has problem) Australia ACCESS1.3 Completed N/A Mid-March 2016 (slice run) Australia CCSM4 N/A N/A Mid-March 2016 (slice run) Australia CNRM-CM5 N/A N/A Mid-March 2016 (slice run) Japan MRI-AGCM3.2 Completed BC preparation BC preparation Hong Kong SAR CCSM4 or CESM March 2016 July 2016 December 2016 United Kingdom HadGEM2-ES X X Germany MPI-ESM-LR XX XX X (commitment continued but delayed due to PRECIS2) XX (commitment continued but progress no information provided yet)
13 Meetings / Workshops 1 st SEACLID / CORDEX SEA Workshop, Oct 2013, BMKG, Jakarta 2 nd SEACLID / CORDEX SEA Workshop, 9-10 June 2014, Ramkhamhaeng Univ, Bangkok 1 st SEACLID / CORDEX SEA Manuscript Writing Workshop, Aug 2014, NUM, Kuala Lumpur Proposal Preparatory Workshop of a Pilot Project on Impact Assessment on Rice using CORDEX SEA Product, Sept 2014, Ramkhamhaeng Univ, Bangkok
14 Meetings / Workshops WCRP CORDEX Science & Training Workshop in Southeast Asia, Nov 2014, Bogor, Indonesia WCRP ESGF Training Workshop for CORDEX Asia, 4-5 Dec 2014, Nanjing, China RegCM4 Workshop for Southeast Asia May 2015, Ateneo de Manila University
15 RegCM4 (ver ) Sensitivity Experiments Conducted by participating institutions from Southeast Asia region PBL: Holtslag (1990) Radiation: CCSM Large scale moisture: SUBEX (Pal et al. 20) Land-surface scheme: BATSe Cumulus parameterization: - Grell / Arakawa-Schubert (closure) - MIT Emanual - MIT (O) / Grell (L) - Grell (O) / MIT (L) - Grell / Fritch-Chappell (closure) 18 Simulations - Kuo Air-Sea flux parameterization: - BATSe - Zeng (iocnrough=1) - Zeng (iocnrough=2) Lateral boundary conditions: ERA Interim Run length: (20 years; 1989 is model spin-up) (To enable interananual responses to be evaluated)
16 Annual Precipitation Biases (vs CRU)
17 cont.
18 DJF Air-Sea Flux Grell AS MIT Eman Eman(l) Grell (o) Grell FC Grell (l) Eman (o) Kuo Convection schemes C ERAIN- APHRO Overall cold bias in model
19 Precipitation Searching for the Best Combination Physical Parameterizations Temperature Monsoon Circulation Count the frequencies of each of the 18 experiments appeared as the best 3 for each criteria
20 Scores of the experiments (higher the better) MIT Grell(L)/MIT(O) MIT & Grell(L)/MIT(O) performs better than the others, with MIT out performs Grell(L)/MIT(O).
21 Next tasks Complete the runs and gather all model outputs from modeling centers Perform overall analysis of all runs and understand model biases Establish ESGF node for Southeast Asia and disseminate the products to user community
22 Distribution of CORDEX via ESGF. Detail can be obtained from Southeast Asia node? Soon!!!
23 Next Workshops April 6-7, 2016 (Training workshop on Regional Climate Data Analysis depending of funding availability; VNU Hanoi University of Science / tentative on WRCP funding approval) April 8-9, 2016 (4 th CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop; VNU Hanoi University of Science) September 2016 (Final CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop; National University of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur)
24 Second Phase of CORDEX Southeast Asia submitted to APN for funding consideration Further downscaling to 3 km x 3 km resolution over key vulnerable areas to address IAV community needs for basin-scale assessment of climate change impacts Countries: Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines 3 GCMs, 2 RCMs, 2 RCPs RCMs will be forced using outputs from current phase of CORDEX Southeast Asia
25 Thank You
http://www.ukm.edu.my/seaclid-cordex/ Addressing future climate change information gaps and data needs in the Southeast Asia region through the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX
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