Andrey Martynov 1, René Laprise 1, Laxmi Sushama 1, Katja Winger 1, Bernard Dugas 2. Université du Québec à Montréal 2

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1 CMOS-2012, Montreal, 31 May 2012 Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation Andrey Martynov 1, René Laprise 1, Laxmi Sushama 1, Katja Winger 1, Bernard Dugas 2 1 Université du Québec à Montréal 2 Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Environnement Canada

2 Outline Introduction - Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 - CORDEX - CRCM5 contribution to CORDEX: a summary Reanalysis-driven CRCM5 runs: - Goals - Configuration - Continent-scale performance - Subdomains: annual temperature and precipitation cycle - North American Moonsoon - Great Plains Low Level Jet Summary

3 Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 Based on LAM configuration of GEM used for NWP - Combination of Meso-Global and Regional (15 km) Physics - Libraries: Dynamics GEM_3.3.3 & Physics_ Kain-Fritsch deep & Kuo transient shallow convection - Sundqvist large-scale condensation - Correlated-K solar and terrestrial radiations - Subgrid-scale mountain gravity-wave drag & Low-level orographic blocking - TKE planetary boundary layer and vertical diffusion Modifications: - Land-Surface Scheme: CLASS_3.5 - ECOCLIMAP: distribution of sand and clay and formulation of bare soil albedo - Elements of CLASS_3.6: - Sturm et al. snow thermal conductivity - Snow albedo refreshment threshold - Peatlands - Interactive thermodynamical 1D lakes (Flake, Hostetler)

4 The COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) In this project a number of GCM climate scenarios/predictions derived from the CMIP5 set of integrations are downscaled over a range of limited-area regions (Jones 2009). The project is based on numerous regional Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) The results are supposed to be available for the 5th IPCC Assessment Report - i.e. in summer CORDEX simulation domains (resolution: 0.44 ): South America, Central America, North America, Europe, Africa, West Asia, East Asia, Central Asia, Australasia, Antarctica, Arctic, Mediterranean. Total simulation period : The CORDEX project Boundary forcing: - ERA40/ERA-Interim reanalysis for control simulations, - GCMs from the CMIP5 set of integrations for present+future climate. Project participants choose the simulation domains and forcing datasets. Standardized sets of output data are uploaded to the CORDEX web site in the NetCDF format.

5 CRCM5 contribution to CORDEX: a summary Two simulation domains: North America and Africa For each domain: - ER40 / ERA-Interim driven runs ( ) - 2 GCM-driven runs: CanESM2-CCCma and MPI-ESM-LR ( ) - 1 member for each domain/gcm forcing pair 4 principal articles: 1 published, 3 in preparation

6 It is important to assure that RCMs, used for climate predictions, are able to adequately reproduce the current climate. Therefore, reanalysis-driven control runs are foreseen in the CORDEX specifications. The present work is aimed at assessing the ability of CRCM5 in simulating key elements of the present climate of North America in ERA-Interim-driven simulation ( ). To achieve this, CRCM5 reanalysis-driven runs 1. The continent-scale multi-annual seasonal means of near surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with observation and reanalysis data; 2. The annual cycle of near surface air temperature and precipitation is compared with observation data for several subregions; 3. The ability of CRCM5 to reproduce the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), the Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ), and related precipitation patterns is compared to reanalysis and observation data.

7 Simulation period: Simulation settings Boundary forcing: ERA40 ( ), ERA-Interim: Simulation grid: rotated lat-lon, horizontal resolution: 0.44 Domain size: , free zone: Nesting: atmospheric LBC, ocean SST & SIC (where available) No spectral nudging CLASS soil settings: 26 layers, going up to 60 m depth Peatlands Only every 5th grid point displayed Interactive lakes: FLake lake model, realistic lake depth (limited by 60m).

8 Air temperature: winter multi-annual seasonal means: 2m air temperature ( C), winter (DJF) CRCM5 ERA-Interim CRU 3.10 UDEL Ocean observation data: only available in ERA-Interim CRCM5 - ERA-Interim CRCM5 - CRU 3.10 CRCM5 UDEL Generally good qualitative agreement between CRCM5 and observation /reanalysis data over the continent. Notable difference between datasets Cold bias in WNA and Mexico

9 Air temperature: summer multi-annual seasonal means: 2m air temperature ( C), summer (JJA) CRCM5 ERA-Interim CRU 3.10 UDEL Ocean observation data: only available in ERA-Interim CRCM5 - ERA-Interim CRCM5 - CRU 3.10 CRCM5 UDEL Generally good qualitative agreement between CRCM5 and observation /reanalysis data over the continent. Notable difference between datasets Cold bias in Mexico and in Alaska in summer; weak warm summer bias in central US/Canada

10 Precipitation: winter multi-annual seasonal means: precipitation (mm/day), winter (DJF) CRCM5 CRCM5 - CRU 3.10 CRCM5 - UDEL CRU 3.10 UDEL CRCM5 - CRU 3.10, % CRCM5 UDEL, % Generally good agreement between simulated and observed precipitation Relative difference is large mostly in regions with weak precipitation

11 Precipitation: summer multi-annual seasonal means: precipitation (mm/day), summer (JJA) CRCM5 CRCM5 - CRU 3.10 CRCM5 - UDEL CRU 3.10 UDEL CRCM5 - CRU 3.10, % CRCM5 UDEL, % Generally good agreement between simulated and observed precipitation Relative difference is large mostly in regions with weak precipitation

12 Subdomains: Boreal Forest averaged annual cycle of 2m air temperature and precipitation: Boreal Forest Annual temperature cycle: well reproduced Precipitation: overestimated Annual cycle: generally correct

13 Subdomains: Deep South averaged annual cycle of 2m air temperature and precipitation: Deep South Annual temperature cycle: cold bias in winter Precipitation: well reproduced. Strong interannual variability of monthly means

14 North American Monsoon System averaged annual cycle of precipitation JJA CRCM5 precipitation 2m air temperature CRCM5 CRU3.10 The timing of NAM is well captured in simulations The CORE zone: fairly close to observations The AZNM zone: ~30% weaker than observed High interannual variability

15 Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ) averaged v-wind hpa, JJA CRCM5 ERA-Interim Cross-section of the v-wind, m/s Averaged between 30 N and 40 N

16 Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ): diurnal cycle Cross-section of the v-wind, m/s Averaged between 30 N and 40 N CRCM5 JJA ERA-Interim Mean V-wind, 30 N - 40 N, 95 W-100 W, hpa 0Z 06Z 12Z Precipitation diurnal cycle, JJA N - 40 N, 95 W W CRCM5 TRMM 18Z The location, structure and diurnal cycle of GPLLJ are well reproduced by CRCM5 The V-wind force in GPLLJ is overestimated in comparison with ERA-Interim data. The diurnal cycle of the GLPJJ-linked precipitation is different from that in the TRMM data: no precipitation maximum in late evening/midnight

17 Summary RCM-introduced biases in air temperature and precipitation are relatively weak: - Cold winter bias in mountainous and desert regions of Western and Central North America - Cold bias remains in summer in Mexico. - Precipitation is reproduced correctly or overestimated in most subregions - Substantial difference between observation datasets... The model is reproducing satisfactorily such complex phenomena as North American Monsoon System and Great Plains Low Level Jet. Some issues were identified: - Precipitation is underestimated in northern part of the NAMS regions - GPLLJ: correct diurnal cycle of the v-wind, but the precipitation cycle does not have the evening maximum. The ERA-Interim driven CRCM5 simulations for CORDEX demonstrate generally good performance over the North American CORDEX domain and provides a good basis for GCM-based climate change projections.

18 Thank you! Questions? For more details and discussion please come to our poster 3D8.6

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