Future Projections of Global Wave Climate by Multi-SST and Multi-Physics Ensemble Experiments. Tomoya Shimura
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1 Future Projections of Global Wave Climate by Multi-SST and Multi-Physics Ensemble Experiments Graduate School of Engineering, Nobuhito Mori, Tomohiro Yasuda and Hajime Mase Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
2 Future Projection of Global Wave Climate Ensemble projection of future change in mean significant wave heights from 5 studies (20 members). Future Present (%) Wang and Swail (2006) Mori et al. (2010) Hemer et al. (2012) Fan et al. (2013) Semedo et al. (2013) M. Hemer et al. (2013, Nature Climate Change) : Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble
3 Future emission scenario Methodology Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Climate Model (AOGCM) Atmospheric GCM Wave Model Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Surface Wind
4 Future emission scenario Methodology Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Climate Model (AOGCM) Atmospheric GCM Wave Model Sea Surface Temperature (SST) 4 future SST conditions times 3PPE = 12 ensembles Surface Wind
![Main finding Future changes in MSWH in summer (JJASON) at the North Pacific SST ensemble Perturbed Physics ensemble [%] Variation of SST is major uncertainty source of summertime wave climate in NP](/docs-images/85/92109206/images/5-0.jpg "There is the robust relationship between future change pattern of SST and summertime wave climate Relative growth of mean wave height under so-called cluster3 SST condition through change in typhoon")
5 Main finding Future changes in MSWH in summer (JJASON) at the North Pacific SST ensemble Perturbed Physics ensemble [%] Variation of SST is major uncertainty source of summertime wave climate in NP There is the robust relationship between future change pattern of SST and summertime wave climate Relative growth of mean wave height under so-called cluster3 SST condition through change in typhoon characteristics. The results are consistent with COWCLIP studies
6 Outline of Model
7 Model description Surface Wind Atmospheric GCM MRI-AGCM3.2H Spatial resolution 60km SST HadISST1, Cluster 0, 1, 2, 3 Cumulus convection scheme Yoshimura (YS) Arakawa Schubert (AS) Kain-Fritsch (KF) Global wave model Wave Watch III Spatial resolution 1 Directional resol. 15 Frequency band Hz Physics SST\ Present Climate ( ) Physics SST\ YS AS KF HadISST1 HPA_YS HPA_AS HPA_KF Future Climate ( ) YS AS KF c0 HFA_YS_c0 HFA_AS_c0 HFA_KF_c0 c1 HFA_YS_c1 HFA_AS_c1 HFA_KF_c1 c2 HFA_YS_c2 HFA_AS_c2 HFA_KF_c2 c3 HFA_YS_c3 HFA_AS_c3 HFA_KF_c3
8 4 future SST conditions Future Present (Murakami et al., 2012) C0 (CMIP3 mean) C1 (BCCR BCM2.0 GISS AOM INM CM3.0 IPSL CM4 CCSM3.0 CNRM CM3 MIUB ECHO-G) C2 (CGCM3.1 T47 CGCM3.1 T63 MPI ECHAM5 MRI CGCM2.3 MIROC3.2h MIROC3,2m) C3 (CSTRO Mk3.0 UKMO HadGEM1 GFDL CM2.0 GFDL CM2.1 UKMO HadCM3) C0 : Mean of 18 CMIP3 models (A1B scenario) C1 3 : Clustered SST of 18 CMIP3
9 Future Projections Results Mena Significant Wave Height (MSWH)
![[m] Maximum difference of](/docs-images/85/92109206/images/10-1.jpg "future change among 12")
10 Future change in annual MSWH Ensemble mean future change [m] Maximum difference of future change among 12 experiments [m]
11 Future changes in MSWH in JJASON at the North Pacific 3 cumulus convection scheme YS AS KF 4 SST future conditions c0 c1 c2 c3 [%]
12 Future changes in typhoon frequency (YS) c0 c1 c2 c3 [number/season]
13 Contribution of typhoon change to future change in MSWH MSWH (H m ) MSWH generated by TC events(h tt ) MSWH under non-tc (H nn ) TC frequency (r tt ) H m = H tt r tt + H nn (1 r tt ) Future change in MSWH ( H m ) Component of H tt (C HHH ) Component of H nn (C HHH ) Component of r tt (C r ) Residual component (C ) Waves generated by Typhoon event H m = C HHH + C HHH + C r + C
14 Contribution of typhoon change to future change in MSWH C0 C1 C2 C3 (1) H m (2)C r (3)C HHH (4)C HHH [m]
15 Comparison with COWCLIP studies Hemer et al. (2012) Fan et al. (2013) Mori et al. (2010) Semedo et al. (2013) HE12(1) HE12(2) FA13(1) FA13(2) MO10 SE13 Scenario SRES A2 A1B A1B A1B SST MPI ECHAM5 CSIRO MK3.5 GFDL CM2.1 CMIP3 mean CMIP3 mean ECHAM5 MRI ECHAM5 AGCM CSIRO CCAM GFDL HiRAM and WW3 AGCM3.1S AGCM Coupled Wave WW3 SWAN WAM SST cluster c2 c1 c3 c0 c0 c2 Maximum difference of future changes in MSWH in JJASON across ensemble members This study COWCLIP
16 Future changes in MSWH at WNP 12 members of present study and 6 members of COWCLIP studies YS AS KF c3 Present study c3 c3 COWCLIP FA13(1)
17 Discussion: SST-MSWH Y. Fan et al. (2013, J. Clim.) SST GFDL CM2.1 UKMO HADCM3 MPI ECHAM5 CMIP3 ensemble (C3) (C3) (C2) (C0) Future change in typhoon frequency no change decrease West Pacific C3 C3 C2 C0 Future change in typhoon frequency depends on SST. Future changes in MSWH under SST cluster3 are larger than cluster0 or 2, due to difference of future change in typhoon frequency.
18 Representative character of SST clusters region1 region2 Green: c1 Blue: c2 Red: c3 region2 Relative warming within region1 18 letters (A-R) : 18 CMIP3 models under A1B 2 letters (S, T) : 2 models under A2 used by HE12
19 Summary Future change in summer MSWH at WNP depends on SST condition significantly, through future changes in typhoon characteristics. There is the robust relationship between future change pattern of SST and summertime wave climate in WNP. Relative growth of mean wave height under SST cluster3 condition. The results were supported by COWCLIP studies. Other study also indicted that uncertainties in SST changes are major source of future projection. The Northern Hemisphere jet stream changes (Delcanbre et al., 2013, J.Clim.)
20 The end
21 Model Validation Mean SWH HPA_YS ERA interim [m]
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