Ramesh Vellore. CORDEX Team: R. Krishnan, T.P. Sabin, J. Sanjay, Milind Mujumdar, Sandip Ingle, P. Priya, M.V. Rama Rao, and Madhura Kane

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1 Ramesh Vellore CORDEX Team: R. Krishnan, T.P. Sabin, J. Sanjay, Milind Mujumdar, Sandip Ingle, P. Priya, M.V. Rama Rao, and Madhura Kane Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 4th National Research Conference on Climate Change October 26-27, 2013

2 What is CORDEX? Impacts of changing climate at regional scales Global climate models (GCM) can provide us with projections of how the climate of the earth will change in the future. These results are urging the international community to take decisions on climate change mitigation. However, the impacts of changing climate, and the adaptation strategies required to deal with them will be more on a regional scale. This is where Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) has an important role to play providing projections with much greater (or finer) detail. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was launched by the World Climate Research Programme to create a framework for evaluating and comparing various RCD techniques that are in use all over the world for assessment of regional climate change. Further, the CORDEX community supports activities in developing regions and also provides opportunities for young scientists to enhance their knowledge base.

3 WCRP CORDEX South Asia led by CCCR, IITM COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment CORDEX South Asia South Asia

4 CORDEX-South Asia: Model Experiments Evaulation / Baseline run with ERA Interim boundary conditions ( ) Historical run ( ) Future projection : (e.g., RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 Scenario) Participating Modeling Groups LMDZ model (~ 35 km ) CCCR (IITM), IPSL RegCM model (~ 50 km) CCCR (IITM) HadRM3P model (~ 50 km) CCCR (IITM), Hadley Centre WRF model (~ 50 km) - CCCR (IITM), BCCR and TERI MRI model (~ 20 km) global model (MRI, Japan) RCA model (~ 50 km) Rossby Centre, Sweden COSMO-CLM (~ 50 km) University of Frankfurt, Germany CCAM model ( ~ 50 km) CSIRO, Australia

5 Understanding regional climate change over South Asia High resolution (~ 35 km) dynamical downscaling at CCCR, IITM Historical ( ): Includes natural and anthropogenic (GHG, aerosols, land cover etc) climate forcing during the historical period ( ) ~ 120 years Historical Natural ( ): Includes only natural climate forcing during the historical period ( ) ~ 120 years RCP 4.5 scenario ( ) ~ 95 years: Future projection run which includes both natural and anthropogenic forcing based on the IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 climate scenario. The evolution of GHG and anthropogenic aerosols in RCP 4.5 scenario produces a global radiative forcing of W m -2 by 2100

6 LMDZ grid setup for CORDEX South Asia (shaded region has grid-size < 35 km) Source: Sabin, CCCR, IITM

7 LMDZ representation of topography (m) and model grids over the South Asian region Western Ghats Himalayas USGS (~1 km resolution topography map)

8 PRITHVI (High Performance Computing System), IITM, Pune Configuration of PRITHVI, HPC at IITM: IBM P6 575 nodes totaling 117 numbers including the 2 nodes for GPFS quorum and one Login node. Each node is populated with 32 cores of IBM P 6 CPU running at 4.7 G Hz. Total of 3744 cores with Peak Performance of 70 Tflops. High end Servers P570 s, P550 s, 20 Visual Workstations. Interconnectivity using Infiniband Switches and Ethernet switches for Management purposes Total of 3 Peta Bytes of Storage including Online, Near-line and Archival Storage GPFS, Tivoli and other Management Softwares

9 Monsoon rainfall (JJAS) Zoom Zoom Zoom Climatological SST No Zoom Mean annual cycles of rainfall (mm day -1 ) and surface temperature ( o C) over the Indian landmass from the zoom and no-zoom runs No Zoom No Zoom

10 Temp Temp-Natural Surface Air Temperature RCP4.5 Global Mean Temp Temp-Natural RCP4.5 Global Tropics (30 o S 30 o N) RCP Temp Temp-Natural RCP4.5 Source: T. P. Sabin, CCCR, IITM South Asian Monsoon (70 o E 90 o E; 10 o N 25 o N)

11 Annual mean precipitation Global Tropics (30 o S 30 o N) RCP Precip 2.7 Precip-Natural JJAS precipitation South Asian Monsoon Region (70 90 o E; o N) RCP4.5 Precip Source: T. P. Sabin, CCCR, IITM Precip-Natural

12 Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events over India in a Warming Environment Time series of count over Central India Low and Moderate events Heavy events (>100 mm) Goswami et al., Science, 2006 Very Heavy events (>150 mm)

13 Limitations of coarse resolution climate models in capturing high intensity ( > 100 mm day -1 ) rainfall events > 100 mm day -1 over monsoon trough region High-resolution climate models effectively capture intense ( > 100 mm day -1 ) rainfall events over the Indian monsoon region and their change

14 Trend in number of extreme rainfall (> 100 mm day -1 ) events Source: Sabin, CCCR, IITM

15 Assam flood in August 2000 APHRODHITE WRF (10 km grid) simulations during monsoon breaks Composite during monsoon breaks Added benefit of high-resolution regional simulations - better support to hydrology models

Assessment of downscaling techniques and

regional climate projections and examine

CORDEX activity L 14 June 2013 L 15 June

16 Assessment of downscaling techniques and their products in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau region to understand uncertainties accompanying the regional climate projections and examine the feasibility of climate model results CORDEX activity L 14 June 2013 L 15 June 2013 Interactions between southward intruding mid-latitude troughs and monsoon lows 16 June June 2013 Courtesy: Ramesh Vellore

topography Hourly precipitation at Kedarnath Interactions

17 Uttarakhand heavy rainfall event (16-19 June 2013) 6 km grid Localized intense rainfall zones over the complex topography Hourly precipitation at Kedarnath Interactions between southward intruding midlatitude troughs and monsoon lows

18 WCRP CORDEX South Asia Training Workshop In partnership with CCCR-IITM, START, ICTP, CSAG, SMHI and ICSU- ROAP October 2012, Pune, India ml

21 Providing user-friendly regional downscaling products for South Asia. Announcement of CORDEX South Asia dataset dissemination: 12 Sept 2013 Courtesy: Sandip Ingle, Milind Mujumdar, CCCR

22 CORDEX South Asia multi-model data Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune CCCR Data Portal

23 Generation of CORDEX South Asia multi-model simulations at IITM and Partner Institutions - Evaluation run, Historical runs and future scenarios eg. RCP4.5 Multi-model approach to quantify uncertainties in regional climate projections Development of regional capacity - CORDEX training workshops proposed to be held in South Asia, East Asia and South East Asia in 2013, 2014 and 2015 Standardize the format of CORDEX South Asia model outputs from multi-model ensemble simulations Archival, management and sharing of CORDEX South Asia model outputs - Mechanism to consolidate model outputs from all partner institutions Framework for developing an ESG node at CCCR, IITM for CORDEX South Asia Framework for Evaluation of CORDEX South Asia model simulations. Develop synergistic linkage between climate downscaling and VIA user communities in Asia through direct user engagement

Extreme Weather Events Rainfall

Extreme Weather Events Rainfall R. Krishnan Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune Media briefing on climate change for South Asia Centre for Science and Environment