Near future ( ) projection of the East Asia summer monsoon by an atmospheric global model with 20-km grid

Transcription

1 Near future ( ) projection of the East Asia summer monsoon by an atmospheric global model with 20-km grid Shoji KUSUNOKI Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Ryo MIZUTA, Mio MATSUEDA Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization (AESTO) The 10th "General Circulation Model Simulations of the East Asian Climate" (EAC) workshop Aug 2009, Yinchuan, China 1

2 20-km global atmospheric model Item Content Basic equation Hydrostatic, primitive Horizontal structure Spherical harmonics (latitude) and Fourie harmonics (longitude) Horizontal resolution 20 km, TL959 Vertical level 60, top at 0.1 hpa Time integration Semi-Lagrangian scheme, Yoshimura (2004) Shortwave radiation H20, O3, CO2, O2, Aerosol, Shibata and Uchiyama (1992) Longwave radiation H20, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, Shibata and Aoki (1989) Cumulus convection Prognostic of Arakawa-Schubert, Randal and Pan (1993) Boundary layer Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982), level 2 closure Gravity wave drag Orographic origin, Iwasaki et al. (1989) Cloud Cumulus, Large-scale condensation Precipitation process Prognose cloud water content Land surface Simple Biosphere (SiB) model, Sato et al. (1989) From 21 November 2007, the Japan Meteorological Agency is using the 20- km model as an operational global model for deterministic 9-day forecast. 2

3 Time-slice experiments Atmosphere-Ocean Couple Model, A1B Scenario High resolution Atmosphere model experiment WCRP CMIP km Predicted SST Atmosphere SST Atmosphere SST 20 km grid km Ocean SST Present Near future End of 21C Year 3

4 SST setting Observed SST 1979~2003 CGCM 20th Century ~2000 For each grid and each month CMIP3 CGCM A1B 2001~ CMIP3 CGCM Model Trend Warming ΔT years 25 years Projected warming by CMIP3 CGCM ΔT + CMIP3 CGCM Model trend 2015 ~ Detrended observed SST 1979~2003 = (2015~2039)-(1979~2003) 4

5 External forcings Item Present-day Near Future End of 21th century Target year Period (year) Sea surface temperature Observation HadISST Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Sea ice compactness Sea ice thickness Observation HadISST Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Observation Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Observation + Change(WCRP CMIP3 MME) Greenhouse gases Observation A1B scenario A1B scenario Aerosol Aerosol CTM climatology Aerosol CTM climatology Aerosol CTM climatology Ozone Ozone CTM climatology CTM A1B scenario CTM A1B scenario projection projection Solar activity Constant Constant Constant Volcanic eruption None None None WCRP:World Climate Research Programme CMIP3: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 MME: Multi-Model Ensemble 5 CTM: Chemical Transport Model

6 The Earth Simulator 2 From March 2009 NEC SX-9/E Node: 160, 1 Node = 8 CPU Peak performance : 131 Tera Flops 6

7 Differences between previous studies Kusunoki et al. (2006, JMSJ) Kusunoki and Mizuta (2008, SOLA) End of 21th Century This study: Near future

8 May OBS GPCP1DD Present Near future Change =(F-P)/P (%) End of 21C

9 June OBS GPCP1DD Present Near future Change =(F-P)/P (%) End of 21C

10 July OBS GPCP1DD Present Near future Change =(F-P)/P (%) End of 21C

11 May June July Near future End of 21C

12 Target areas for logitudinal average China Korea Japan 12

13 China E Present-day Apr 1 Aug Near future Increase Change (F-P)/P Decrease 13

14 Korea E Present-day May 16 Aug Near future Increase Change (F-P)/P Decrease 14

15 Japan E Present-day May 16 Aug Near future Increase Change (F-P)/P Decrease 15

16 Target areas for area average Korea+Japan 16

17 Korea+ Japan OBS Near future End of 21C Present Change End of 21C Near future 17

18 July Precipitation Surface temp change Near future End of 21C

19 July Precip Present Near future End of 21C CMAP GPCP Model 19

20 July Temp Present JRA Near future End of 21C Model 20

21 Summary 1. In near future, precipitation decrease over northern part of China in May to July. 2. Precipitation decrease over Korea in June. 3. Precipitation change is small over Japan. 4. Change of precipitation is much different depending on region and month. 5. Near future climate is NOT between present climate and end of 21C climate. 21

22 Acknowledgements This study was conducted as a part of research theme Projection of the change in the future weather extremes using super-high resolution atmospheric model under the framework of the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century (KAKUSHIN), funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The KAKUSHIN program is a 5-year research program started in April