Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) ccds-dscc.ec.gc.ca

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1 Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) ccds-dscc.ec.gc.ca Benita Tam Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Climate Research Division (CRD), Science and Technology Branch Environment and Climate Change Canada Adaptation Canada 2016 April Page 1 April-20-16

2 History ECCC is the lead department for the provision of climate scenario data to inform adaptation across the federal government. The CCDS portal is intended to address this need The predecessor to CCDS was the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN) CCDS includes CMIP5 (multi-model ensemble and individual) projection data We also wanted to better integrate historical climate information with future climate scenarios both are often needed by users and CRD research covers both areas. - Therefore data and scenarios Page 2 April-20-16

3 CCDS home page Page 3 April-20-16

4 Anatomy of CCDS Page 4 April-20-16

5 Advantages of CCDS Updated content to reflect multi-model results used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The CMIP5 archive was the basis for the Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections in Annex I of the AR5 - a lot of thought went into the manner in which this information was presented, and we wanted to be consistent with that. CCDS provides model output specific to Canada Page 5 April-20-16

6 In IPCC AR5 Atlas Page 6 April IPCC, AR5, 2013

7 For Canada, this layout is not very convenient North America (west) High Latitudes North America (east) IPCC, WG-I, AR5, 2013 Page 7 April-20-16

8 Model #1 Model #n Individual model results from 29 models all interpolated onto the same 1 o lat/lon global grid Model #2 Model #3 Model #4 Model #5 Page 8 April CCDS provides model output specific to Canada

9 CCDS version based on 29 CMIP5 models (RCP4.5) - temperature 25 th percentile 50 th percentile 75 th percentile Page 9 April-20-16

10 We do the same for other variables, such as change in snow depth RCP2.6 Page 10 April-20-16

11 We do the same for other variables, such as change in snow depth RCP2.6 Variables available: Temperature Precipitation Sea ice thickness Sea ice concentration Snow depth Near-surface wind speed Page 11 April-20-16

12 Model uncertainty One of the key concepts that has been reiterated in IPCC Assessment Reports, and the underlying scientific literature, is the need to quantitatively deal with uncertainty in future climate projections. Dealing with uncertainty: - CCDS provides multi-model ensemble data for 3 RCPs (low, med, high) so that uncertainty can be quantified to the extent needed. - Best practice is to use this multi-model scenario information when practical; avoid using a single model result. - There is no accepted way of identifying models that are more reliable than others, based on metrics of past performance. This is still an active research topic. Page 12 April-20-16

13 Climate information available on CCDS User can select time series, maps, or tables Page 13 April-20-16

14 Time series have this format Uncertainty is quantified by median, 25/75 th percentiles and 5/95 th percentiles shown in the box and whisker plots to the right of the figure. Page 14 April-20-16

15 Tables provide summary information for Canada as a whole and for each province and territory Page 15 April-20-16

16 Intermediate information is mostly limited to AR4-era data at this point this is an area that will be developed further over the coming year e.g. bioclimatic profiles Page 16 April-20-16

17 Page 17 April-20-16

18 Advanced information is in the form of gridded data Multi-model ensemble or individual models can be selected in NetCDF or GeoTIFF format Page 18 April-20-16

19 Statistically downscaled information For CCCma model (CanESM2) can download data pre-processed to use as input to statistical downscaling schemes Page 19 April-20-16

20 10km resolution statistically downscaled scenarios provided by PCIC, funded by EC Page 20 April-20-16

21 Links to observational data Page 21 April-20-16

22 What s to come Future plans to include Enhanced layout Additional variables Guidance information Page 22 April-20-16

23 Questions? Page 23 April-20-16

Training: Climate Change Scenarios for PEI. Training Session April Neil Comer Research Climatologist

Training: Climate Change Scenarios for PEI Training Session April 16 2012 Neil Comer Research Climatologist Considerations: Which Models? Which Scenarios?? How do I get information for my location? Uncertainty