Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios
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1 Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Hans Chen, Fuqing Zhang and Richard Alley Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques The Pennsylvania State University
2 Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining Monthly mean September Arctic sea-ice extent
3 Sea ice plays a key role in the climate system As a mirror Reflects more solar radiation than the underlying ocean As an insulator Reduces heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere
4 Sea ice plays a key role in the climate system As a mirror Reflects more solar radiation than the underlying ocean As an insulator Reduces heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere
5 Sea-ice loss may impact mid-latitude weather Arctic sea-ice loss has been linked to more frequent extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, including extreme cold events research on these linkages is still in its infancy, making it difficult to draw conclusions regarding their existence or their mechanisms National Research Council, 2014 Photo by Edward Stojakovic
6 Approaching the challenge of sea-ice loss impacts Objective Quantify the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss under varying sea-ice conditions Approach Model: NCAR Community Atmosphere Model sea ice scenarios, each with 55 one-year simulations, yielding a 550-year realization of the climate Horizontal resolution of and 30 vertical levels
7 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
8 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
9 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
10 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
11 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
12 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
13 Sea ice scenarios with gradually decreasing sea ice less ice α more ice 3 corresponds to September 2012 sea-ice conditions Smaller α less sea ice September sea ice concentration
14 A smooth transition to the perturbed state Seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice area for different scenarios
15 Large warming over the Arctic Monthly mean surface temperature response in December
16 Large warming over the Arctic Surface air temperature response for a specific grid point
17 Large warming over the Arctic Surface air temperature response for a specific grid point
18 Strong correlation with temperature locally Correlation between α and surface air temperature
19 Weak correlation with atmospheric circulation Correlation between α and sea-level pressure
20 Daily data a large amount of information And 49,476 more
21 Clustering of daily circulation anomaly pattens Use a self-organizing map to find 9 representative clusters Sea-level pressure contoured every 2 hpa
22 Significant changes in some circulation patterns Occurrence of circulation patterns for different scenarios
23 Significant changes in some circulation patterns Occurrence of circulation patterns for different scenarios Increased frequency of a pattern that resembles the negative Arctic Oscillation associated with Arctic sea-ice loss, but the changes are highly nonlinear
24 Definition of extreme cold events
25 Definition of extreme cold events An extreme cold event is defined as a winter day when the average temperature falls below the 2.5th percentile of all ensemble members
26 Linear and nonlinear changes in extreme cold events Linear decrease of extreme cold events in eastern North America Nonlinear increase of extreme cold events in east Asia
27 Linear and nonlinear changes in extreme cold events Changes in east Asia linked to more frequent negative AO Nonlinear increase of extreme cold events in east Asia
28 Conclusions Linear response Warming of the Arctic Decreased frequency of extreme cold events in eastern North America Nonlinear response More frequent negative AO pattern Increased frequency of extreme cold events in east Asia
29 Conclusions Linear response Warming of the Arctic Decreased frequency of extreme cold events in eastern North America Nonlinear response More frequent negative AO pattern Increased frequency of extreme cold events in east Asia Take-home message: Important to consider nonlinearity of climate system when assessing future climate risks and impacts
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