Deutscher Wetterdienst. German Climate Services - A contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Tobias Fuchs and Paul Becker

Transcription

1 Deutscher Wetterdienst German Climate Services - A contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Tobias Fuchs and Paul Becker Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Business Area Climate and Environment Frankfurter Straße 135, D Offenbach, Germany tobias.fuchs@dwd.de

2 Policy Background for German Climate Services Global Framework for Climate Services: Structure Folie 2

3 DWD s Climate Services Folie 3

4 Observations and Climate Monitoring Data sources for climate monitoring at DWD (incl. temporal evolution of the data volume) Folie 4

5 Observations and Climate Monitoring DWD observation data bases and climate monitoring centres Climate Data Center (CDC) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF) Pilot Regional Climate Center on Climate Monitoring for WMO RA VI (RCC-CM) GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) Lead Centre Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Global Station and Dobson Regional Centre (RA VI) Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) Reference Station and Regional Radiation Centre (RA VI) Maritime Data Center (GCC) Climate analysis / Climate diagnosis Publications Folie 5

6 Modelling, Prediction, Projection DWD Climate services for all planning relevant time scales: Climate monitoring, weather forecast, Climate forecast, climate projection Climate monitoring Climate forecasts Climate projections gap Folie 6

7 Modelling, Prediction, Projection Uncertainty Assessment Greenhouse gas emissions Global climate Regional climate Options for action Customer demands Users Greenhouse gas concentrations Regional climate impacts Folie 7

8 Modelling, Prediction, Projection Downscaling of climate projections (~ 150 km) (50 km 10 km) (500 m 50 m) -> DWD examines impacts of climate change at spatial scales close to user demand Folie 8

9 National climate services information Our products and customers: Products: Forecasts and warnings for time scales from hours until seasons (Forecasts and projections for longer time scales in development) Observations, modelling, expert advice, and consultancies Customers : Governmental, Federal State, and Local authorities Courts, Justice authorities, Police Universities, Research Centers Media, General Public Insurance, Economy, Industry Folie 9

10 National climate services information -> Climate consultancy and information provision in support of adaptation to climate change for users in governmental authorities and industrial sectors in Germany Water sector Civil protection Biodiversity and ecology Climate Climate simulations simulations and and expert expert assessments assessments of of DWD DWD Maritime sector Agriculture Health sector Transport Urban Planning Energy sector Folie 10

11 National climate services information Climate service user requirements Typical user questions comprise: Where do I get data or expert information on climate change? Which climate change impacts can be observed in my region? What is going to happen in the next few months, what in the next 10 years? What about changing trends and extremes? What is the uncertainty of these climate simulations for my region? When will there be further improved climate simulations? What consequences have the results of the simulations for my areas of interest? Folie 11

12 User interface platform German Climate Atlas ( DWD Climate Services Information ( klimaservices) 12 Folie 12

13 User interface platform Percentil view of the climate modelling results 85. Percentil K Parameter: Temperature Deviation from reference value month: July > 6 7 Time window: > 5 6 Basis: > 4 Ensemble 5 of 19 regional climate models > Percentil > 2 3 > 1 2 > 0 1 > Percentil Folie 13

14 User interface platform Percentil view of climate modelling results Example Frankfurt Temperature increase (K) Basis: Ensemble of 19 regional Climate models Folie 14

15 User interface platform Percentil view of climate modelling results Example Frankfurt Basis: Ensemble of 19 regional Climate models Temperature increase (K) 4,63 K 3,32 K 85 % of the models fall below this value 50 % of the models fall below this value 15 % of the models fall below this value 1,78 K Percentil 50. Percentil 85. Percentil 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % 50 % of the models fall below the 50. Percentil. For 70 % of the models the data fall between the 15th and 85th Percentil. 15 % of the models produce lower and 15 % calculate higher data. Folie 15

16 User interface platform Percentil view of climate modelling results Example Frankfurt 4,63 K 3,32 K 1,78 K 85. Percentil 50. Percentil K > 6 7 > 5 6 > 4 5 > 3 4 > 2 3 > 1 2 > 0 1 > Percentil Folie 16

17 User interface platform Climate Data Center (CDC) Easy access to all climate relevant data of the Deutscher Wetterdienst Past (Observed climate data) Station data Gridded data (interpolated stations, satellite, model re-analysis) Quantified Uncertainty Current climate data CDC USER Future (Simulated climate data) Derived parameters (impact modeling) Gridded data Quantified Uncertainty Politics Public Economy Research Folie 17

18 Thank you very much for your attention Folie 18