Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century
|
|
- Thomas Norris
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century Aimée Slangen Postdoctoral research fellow In collaboration with: Mark Carson (CEN Hamburg), Caroline Katsman (KNMI), Roderik van de Wal (IMAU), Armin Köhl (CEN Hamburg), Bert Vermeersen (NIOZ, TU Delft), Detlef Stammer (CEN Hamburg) CMAR
2 Introduction Sea level change: From global To regional What is happening at YOUR doorstep? WG1 SPM fig 9
3 Introduction Contributing processes to sea-level change: Land ice melt Ocean dynamics & density change Glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] Terrestrial water storage change Atmospheric pressure loading Atmospheric pressure Can we model the regional patterns of these processes? What is the influence on projected regional sea-level changes?
4 Methodology Global climate models - CMIP5 21 AOGCM s Scenarios RCP4.5 ( o C) and RCP8.5 ( o C) T, P, SLP, global mean expansion, local sea-level anomalies [Mass change] Glaciers and ice caps [Mass change] Ice sheets [Mass change] Groundwater depletion [Volume change] Steric+dynamic [Volume change] Atmospheric loading [Solid earth deformation] Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Sea-level model gravitational effects Spatial patterns of sea-level change (period to )
5 Gravitational effect [Mass change] Ice Ocean 2200 km 6700 km
6 Land ice [Mass change] Glaciers, Ice caps & Ice sheet SMB (RCP4.5) Glaciers & Ice caps Volume-area approach with CMIP5 temperature and precipitation Ice sheet Surface Mass Balance SMB- T relation derived from AR4, use CMIP5 temperature change to determine SMB Ice sheet Dynamics e.g. calving, thinning & breaking of ice shelves Climate scenario independent Estimate is mean between IPCC AR4 (observed changes continue, no acceleration) and Katsman et al., 2011 (accelerated change) Glaciers, Ice caps & Ice sheet SMB (RCP8.5) Ice sheet Dynamics 0.15 ± 0.03 (GLAC) ± 0.03 (AIS) 0.03 ± 0.03 (GIS) 0.22 ± 0.04 (GLAC) ± 0.07 (AIS) 0.06 ± 0.06 (GIS) 0.09 ± 0.06 (AIS) 0.06 ± 0.05 (GIS) RSL change (m) (Figures by Marc Carson)
7 Terrestrial water storage [Mass change] Dam/reservoir building Expected to decrease in 21 st century (Chao, 2008) Groundwater depletion Groundwater depletion Expected to increase in 21 st century Decreasing surface water availability Decreasing groundwater recharge Increasing irrigation demand Projected using socio-economic scenarios and population change Currently only CMIP3-based available (Wada et al., 2012) 0.08 ± 0.01 m (Scenario independent) RSL change (m) (Figure by Marc Carson)
8 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment [Solid earth deformation] The Earth s viscous response to surface (un)loading Constant on study timescale (~100yr) Climate scenario independent ICE5G (Peltier, 2004) RSL change (m) (Figure by Marc Carson)
9 Steric+Dynamic & Atmospheric loading [Volume changes] Steric+Dynamic & Atm.loading (RCP4.5) Combines: 1. Density changes due to variations in Temperature Salinity 2. Ocean circulation changes 3. Atmospheric pressure changes (+1mb~-1cm) Steric+Dynamic & Atm.loading (RCP8.5) CMIP5 models Include exchange of heat (temperature changes), freshwater (precipitation) and momentum (wind change) Exclude freshwater forcing from land ice melt and associated gravitational effect 0.18 ± 0.05 m (RCP4.5) 0.27 ± 0.07 m (RCP8.5) RSL change (m) (Figures by Marc Carson)
10 CMIP5 Model differences 21 model ensemble Ensemble spread used to estimate uncertainty in steric+dynamic and land ice Large differences (amplitude, pattern), but also similarities (e.g. ACC dipole) (Figures by Marc Carson)
11 Uncertainties Land ice (a,b) CMIP5 21-ensemble & SMB- T uncertainties Ocean (c,d) CMIP5 21-ensemble Ice sheet dynamics (e) unbiased sd between lower and upper estimate Terrestrial (f) sd between 4 CMIP3 model outcomes GIA (g) absolute difference between 2 GIA models (Figures by Marc Carson)
12 Net projections & uncertainties (by 2100) Scenario A= 0.54 ± 0.32 m RCP4.5 + scenarioindependent terms (groundwater, ice dynamics &GIA) RSL change (m) Scenario B= 0.71 ± 0.48 m RCP8.5 + scenarioindependent terms (Figures by Marc Carson)
13 Regional deviations from the global mean Relative deviations +30% in Southern Ocean & around North America -50% in Arctic Ocean and around Antarctic Peninsula Absolute deviations Skewed distribution ~60% of surface > global mean Scenario A Scenario B
14 Regional differences (Scenario A) Land ice Steric+Dynamic GIA Groundwater Total
15 Discussion Land ice different studies use different estimates. Problem is: local information is needed to run sea-level model. Dynamical ice sheet contribution models needed Ice sheet SMB regional climate model runs for full CMIP5 ensemble GIA-model using other models yields (large) local differences Groundwater use full CMIP5 ensemble to drive hydrological model Ocean - ice sheet interaction incorporate freshwater forcing
16 Summary Goal Show you the most complete 21 st century regional sea-level projections using CMIP5 models Processes included Mass change (glaciers, ice sheets, groundwater) Volume change (steric+dynamic, atmospheric loading) Solid-earth deformation (GIA)
17 Conclusions Can we model the regional patterns of these processes? Yes, by combining different models we can show and study regional sea-level changes What is the influence of the different processes on projected regional sea-level changes? Each contribution can dominate locally in all climate scenarios Local deviations range from -50% to +30% wrt global mean Deviations >10% in ~30% of the ocean area Improving/constraining estimates of all contributions is important
Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century
Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century Aimée Slangen In collaboration with Mark Carson (CEN Hamburg), Caroline Katsman (KNMI), Roderik van de Wal (IMAU), Armin Köhl (CEN Hamburg),
More informationOceans and Climate. Caroline Katsman. KNMI Global Climate Division
Oceans and Climate Caroline Katsman KNMI Global Climate Division Aimée Slangen, Roderik van de Wal (IMAU, Utrecht University) Sybren Drijfhout, Wilco Hazeleger (KNMI, Global Climate) Bert Vermeersen (NIOZ/Delft
More informationEstimating sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea
Estimating sea level rise for Vietnam East Sea Thuc Tran 1*, Xuan Hien Nguyen 1, Thi Lan Huong Huynh 1, Van Tra Tran 1, 2, Ngoc Tien Duong 1, Thi Thu Ha Doan 1 1 Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology
More informationProlog. Processes Causing Regional Sea Level Change
Prolog Regional Variability: Causes for contemporary Regional Sea Level Changes Detlef fstammer Center für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN) Universität Hamburg Sea level is one of the climate
More informationSea level change recent past, present, future
Sea level change recent past, present, future Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES Toulouse, France CCI_Colocation meeting, ESA/ESRIN Global mean sea level rise during the 20 th century (red : tide gauges; blue :
More informationProjection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century
Projection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century Jonathan Gregory 1,2 1 NCAS-Climate, University of Reading 2 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter Global mean sea level rise observed
More informationSea-level change: A scientific and societal challenge for the 21 st century John Church International GNSS Service Workshop, Sydney, Feb 11, 2016
Sea-level change: A scientific and societal challenge for the 21 st century John Church International GNSS Service Workshop, Sydney, Feb 11, 2016 OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE NATIONAL RESEARCH FLAGSHIP Our coastal
More informationNorthern European Sea Level Rise. Aslak Grinsted Centre for Ice and Climate Niels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen
Northern European Sea Level Rise Aslak Grinsted Centre for Ice and Climate Niels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Global Sea Level Rise The world is warming and this causes sea level to rise because:
More informationCurrent Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida
Current Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida Daniel Bader and Vivien Gornitz Water Utilities and Climate Change Workshop Palm Beach County Water Utilities/ Water Research Foundation June 10,
More informationUnderstanding and projecting sea level change: improvements and uncertainties
Understanding and projecting sea level change: improvements and uncertainties Jonathan Gregory On behalf of all the lead authors of Chapter 13, Sea level change John Church, Peter Clark, Anny Cazenave,
More informationSummary for the Greenland ice sheet
Contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to future sea level change Catherine Ritz, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, Vincent Peyaud EDGe team, LGGE, CNRS/UJF Grenoble, France Ice
More informationModelling Sea-Level Rise in the Lisbon city coastal area, using Free and Open Source Technologies
Modelling Sea-Level Rise in the Lisbon city coastal area, using Free and Open Source Technologies B. Neves(1), C. Rebelo(1) and A.M. Rodrigues(1) (1) e-geo Research Centre for Geography and Regional Planning,
More informationProjecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Climatic Change manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) 1 2 Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes 3 4 5 A.B.A. Slangen M. Carson C.A. Katsman R.S.W. van de Wal A. Köhl L.L.A.
More informationThe oceans: Sea level rise & gulf stream
Lecture Climate Change Lesson 10 The oceans: Sea level rise & gulf stream Rene Orth rene.orth@bgc-jena.mpg.de 1 Course webpage https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/bgi/index.php/lectures/hydrobioclimclimatechange
More informationIce sheet freshwater forcing
Jan Lenaerts Utrecht University University of Colorado Ice sheet freshwater forcing Photo: Reijmer, 2011 Sea level meeting 5 to ~6 pm, South Bay Goal: Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal populations
More informationDropping Ice Shelves onto an Ocean Model and Moving Grounding Lines. Robert Hallberg NOAA / GFDL
Dropping Ice Shelves onto an Ocean Model and Moving Grounding Lines Robert Hallberg NOAA / GFDL Projected Global Mean Sea Level Rise Sources of uncertainty in 2100 global mean sea level projections: Forcing
More informationIPCC AR5 WG1 - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Nandini Ramesh
IPCC AR5 WG1 - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Nandini Ramesh Seminar in Atmospheric Science 21 st February, 2014 1. Introduc,on The ocean exchanges heat, freshwater, and C with the atmosphere.
More informationFast and Slow Response of Sea ice and the Southern Ocean to Ozone Depletion
Fast and Slow Response of Sea ice and the Southern Ocean to Ozone Depletion Annual Minimum Sea ice extent 1979-2013 10 6 km 2 Arctic September Antarctic February Data from in passive microwave satellite
More informationClimate Modeling Dr. Jehangir Ashraf Awan Pakistan Meteorological Department
Climate Modeling Dr. Jehangir Ashraf Awan Pakistan Meteorological Department Source: Slides partially taken from A. Pier Siebesma, KNMI & TU Delft Key Questions What is a climate model? What types of climate
More informationObserved State of the Global Climate
WMO Observed State of the Global Climate Jerry Lengoasa WMO June 2013 WMO Observations of Changes of the physical state of the climate ESSENTIAL CLIMATE VARIABLES OCEANIC ATMOSPHERIC TERRESTRIAL Surface
More informationConstructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways
Environmental Research Letters PAPER OPEN ACCESS Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways To cite this article: Hylke de Vries et al 2014 Environ. Res. Lett.
More informationComponents of the Climate System. Lecture 2: Earth s Climate System. Pop Quiz. Sub-components Global cycles What comes in What goes out
Lecture 2: Earth s Climate System Components of the Climate System terrestrial radiation Atmosphere Ocean solar radiation Land Energy, Water, and Biogeochemistry Cycles Sub-components Global cycles What
More informationLecture 2: Earth s Climate System
Lecture 2: Earth s Climate System terrestrial radiation solar radiation Atmosphere Ocean Solid Earth Land Energy, Water, and Biogeochemistry Cycles Sub-components Global cycles What comes in What goes
More informationClimate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales. John Houghton. C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth
Climate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales John Houghton C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth 26 April 2011 Computer Modeling of the Atmosphere & Climate System has revolutionized Weather Forecasting and
More informationATOC OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow
ATOC 1060-002 OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Class 19 (Chp 6) Objectives of Today s Class: The Cryosphere [1] Components, time scales; [2] Seasonal snow cover, permafrost, river and lake ice, ; [3]Glaciers and
More informationPotential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS)
Potential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) Sang-Ki Lee 1, Yanyun Liu 1 and Barbara Muhling 2 1 CIMAS-University of Miami and AOML-NOAA 2 Princeton University and
More informationWhat we know about regional sea level rise and how we are affected by variations from the global mean
regional sea level rise and variations from the global Magnus Hieronymus 2018 Regional and Global Sea level Global Density change: thermosteric Regional Density change: thermosteric+ halosteric Land Ice
More informationUpdate on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office
Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing
More informationPROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO THE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE
Second Split Workshop in Atmospheric Physics and Oceanography PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO THE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE Student: Maristella Berta Mentor: Prof. Stjepan Marcelja Split, 24 May 2010 INTRODUCTION
More informationFuture sea level rise through 2100 and beyond
Future sea level rise through 2100 and beyond Emma Stone Uncertain World Summit (Tuesday 20 October 2015) 1 Why are we interested in future sea level rise? How certain are we about the worst case scenario
More informationDetection and Attribution of Climate Change
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change What is D&A? Global Mean Temperature Extreme Event Attribution Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip (KNMI) Definitions Detection: demonstrating that climate
More informationASSESSING FUTURE EXPOSURE: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES
ASSESSING FUTURE EXPOSURE: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES Chesapeake Bay Program Climate Resiliency Workgroup Conference Call May 15, 2017 William Sweet NOAA CO-OPS
More informationCoastal and Marine Projections for the Natural Resource Management Regions of Australia
Coastal and Marine Projections for the Natural Resource Management Regions of Australia The Australian Coastal Councils Association Conference, May 4, 2016, Rockingham, WA Kathleen McInnes John Church,
More informationGlaciers and climate change Jon Ove Hagen, Department of Geosciences University of Oslo
Glaciers and climate change Jon Ove Hagen, Department of Geosciences University of Oslo joh@geo.uio.no Department of geosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Glaciers and climate change
More informationOur Climate without Antarctica
Our Climate without Antarctica Cecilia Bitz, Hansi Singh, Dargan Frierson University of Washington Andrew Pauling, Inga Smith, & Pat Langhorne University of Otago Photo by John Weller Ice Shelf Cavity
More informationIce Sheet Modeling and Sea Level Rise. William Lipscomb, NCAR CESM Sea Level Session 10 January 2018
Ice Sheet Modeling and Sea Level Rise William Lipscomb, NCAR CESM Sea Level Session 10 January 2018 Ice sheets in IPCC AR4 The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected 0.18 to 0.59 m of sea level
More informationCLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE M.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran & Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoff with slides provided by Prof. Dr. Jürgen Böhner Lecture
More informationNew perspectives on old data: What the earth s past tells us about future sea level rise
New perspectives on old data: What the earth s past tells us about future sea level rise Bindschadler, Science, 1998 Andrea Dutton Department of Geological Sciences University of Florida Historical record
More information(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability,
(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability, (2) It s Long-term Loss and Implications for Ocean Conditions Marika Holland, NCAR With contributions from: David Bailey, Alex Jahn, Jennifer Kay, Laura Landrum, Steve
More informationAn Introduction to Coupled Models of the Atmosphere Ocean System
An Introduction to Coupled Models of the Atmosphere Ocean System Jonathon S. Wright jswright@tsinghua.edu.cn Atmosphere Ocean Coupling 1. Important to climate on a wide range of time scales Diurnal to
More informationClimate Projections and Energy Security
NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division Climate Projections and Energy Security Andy Hoell and Jim Wilczak Research Meteorologists, Physical Sciences Division 7 June 2016
More informationIce sheets, global warming and sea level
Ice sheets, global warming and sea level Ralf Greve Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University Kita-19, Nishi-8, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0819, Japan Fax: 81-11-706-7142, e-mail: greve@lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp
More informationClimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair Nairobi, 6 February
More informationClimate Change Adaptation for ports and navigation infrastructure
Climate Change Adaptation for ports and navigation infrastructure The application of climate projections and observations to address climate risks in ports Iñigo Losada Research Director IHCantabria Universidad
More informationSea level projections with semiempirical and earth system models
Sea level projections with semiempirical and earth system models John C. Moore College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China and Arctic Centre, University
More informationArctic Adaptation Research Considerations and Challenges
Arctic Adaptation Research Considerations and Challenges Dr Grete K. Hovelsrud, Research Director CICERO- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway Many Strong Voices Stakeholder
More informationErrata. Version 11/07/2014 1
Version 11/7/214 1 Climate Change 213: The Physical Science Basis The Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Page Item Correction ii Frontmatter Insert the following text: The
More informationIce Sheet Climate Interac0on Learned from Modeling the Past for the Future
Ice Sheet Climate Interac0on Learned from Modeling the Past for the Future WCRP OSC (27 October 2011, Denver) A. Abe Ouchi, M. Yoshimori (Univ. of Tokyo/AORI), F. Saito, K. Takahashi (JAMSTEC/RIGC), and
More informationA review of recent updates of sea-level projections at global and regional scales
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 A review of recent updates of sea-level projections at global and regional scales A. B. A. Slangen 1,2*, F. Adloff 3, S. Jevrejeva 4, P. W. Leclercq
More informationChapter 13: Sea Level Change
First Order Draft Chapter IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 0 0 0 0 0 Chapter : Sea Level Change Coordinating Lead Authors: John A. Church (Australia), Peter U. Clark (USA) Lead Authors: Anny Cazenave (France),
More informationToday s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... )
Today s Lecture: Land, biosphere, cryosphere (All that stuff we don t have equations for... ) 4 Land, biosphere, cryosphere 1. Introduction 2. Atmosphere 3. Ocean 4. Land, biosphere, cryosphere 4.1 Land
More informationLand Surface Sea Ice Land Ice. (from Our Changing Planet)
Lecture 5: Land Surface and Cryosphere (Outline) Land Surface Sea Ice Land Ice (from Our Changing Planet) Earth s s Climate System Solar forcing Atmosphere Ocean Land Solid Earth Energy, Water, and Biochemistry
More informationEarth s Climate System. Surface Albedo. Climate Roles of Land Surface. Lecture 5: Land Surface and Cryosphere (Outline) Land Surface Sea Ice Land Ice
Lecture 5: Land Surface and Cryosphere (Outline) Earth s Climate System Solar forcing Land Surface Sea Ice Land Ice Atmosphere Ocean Land Solid Earth Energy, Water, and Biochemistry Cycles (from Our Changing
More informationThe Science of Sea Level Rise and the Impact of the Gulf Stream
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum 7-29-2016 The Science of Sea Level Rise and the Impact
More informationSea Level Change. Mark A. Merrifield. Lead Author, AR5, Chapter 13. Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Sea Level Change Mark A. Merrifield Lead Author, AR5, Chapter 13 Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Third Order Draft Chapter 13 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 13: Sea Level Change Coordinating
More informationAnthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 Aimée B. A. Slangen 1,2 *, John A. Church 1, Cecile Agosta 3, Xavier Fettweis 3, Ben Marzeion 4 and Kristin Richter 5 1 CSIRO Oceans
More informationPast, present and future
Southern New Jersey and Delaware sea levels: Past, present and future Benjamin P. Horton Sea Level Research Department of Marine and Coastal Science Rutgers University bphorton@marine.rutgers.edu DRIVERS
More informationSea level change. Eustatic sea level change. Tectono-eustasy. Tectonic control of global sea level. Global signal of sea level change Causes:
Sea level change Important processes Global vs. local Geologic Modern Current rates of rise Observations, calculations, and models Lessons from the past Projected future changes Eustatic sea level change
More informationPCIC SCIENCE BRIEF: SEA LEVEL RISE OBSERVATIONS
PCIC SCIENCE BRIEF: SEA LEVEL RISE OBSERVATIONS AND ACCELERATION Three recent journal articles examine the rate of sea level rise and the ability of models to accurately simulate sea level rise at a global
More informationSea level over glacial cycles.
Sea level over glacial cycles. T1: 1 m/century With short periods of with rates up to 4m/century LIG Sea level higher than today (+9m) Siddall et al. 2003 Very stable sea level in human history. Image
More informationTorben Königk Rossby Centre/ SMHI
Fundamentals of Climate Modelling Torben Königk Rossby Centre/ SMHI Outline Introduction Why do we need models? Basic processes Radiation Atmospheric/Oceanic circulation Model basics Resolution Parameterizations
More informationUnderstanding and attributing climate variations: The role of energy. Kevin E Trenberth NCAR
Understanding and attributing climate variations: The role of energy Kevin E Trenberth NCAR NCAR: attribution A way to organize a lot of research Makes it relevant to societal concerns Has some implications
More informationIPCC Chapter 12: Long- term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility
GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn 2015 23.11.2015 IPCC Chapter 12: Long- term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility Introduction and Background (from Chapter 10 and 11) Climate Model
More informationChallenges for Climate Science in the Arctic. Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden
Challenges for Climate Science in the Arctic Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden The Arctic is changing 1) Why is Arctic sea ice disappearing so rapidly? 2) What are the local and remote consequences?
More informationOcean Bottom Pressure Changes Lead to a Decreasing Length-of-Day in a Warming Climate
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.???, XXXX, DOI:1.129/, Ocean Bottom Pressure Changes Lead to a Decreasing Length-of-Day in a Warming Climate Felix W. Landerer, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jochem Marotzke Max
More informationEcole d Eté Altimétrie spatiale. Sea level variations at climatic time scales: observations & causes. Benoit Meyssignac
Ecole d Eté 2014 Altimétrie spatiale Sea level variations at climatic time scales: observations & causes Benoit Meyssignac 1 Ecole d Eté 2014, Saint-Pierre d Oléron, 1-5 septembre 2014 Echelles climatiques
More informationRegionalizing Sea-level Rise Projections for Urban Planning
Regionalizing Sea-level Rise Projections for Urban Planning Bob Kopp Rutgers University E-mail: robert.kopp@rutgers.edu Collaborators: Ken Miller, Ben Horton, Jim Browning, Vladimir Pavlovic (Rutgers);
More informationGlobal Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Other signs of (global) warming. Global Sea Level Rise. Change in upper ocean temperature ( )
Global Ocean Heat Content (0-700m) Change in upper ocean temperature (1955-2003) 0.25C 0.50C Solid lines are three independent estimates (95% confidence interval in grey) IPCC 2007 Fig TS.16 Trends in
More informationThe Ice Age sequence in the Quaternary
The Ice Age sequence in the Quaternary Subdivisions of the Quaternary Period System Series Stage Age (Ma) Holocene 0 0.0117 Tarantian (Upper) 0.0117 0.126 Quaternary Ionian (Middle) 0.126 0.781 Pleistocene
More informationSea level change around the Philippines
Sea level Sea level around the Philippines Institute of Environmental Science for Social Change (ESSC) Conference on Internal Migration and Displacement Davao City, Philippines 20 May 2012 Regional How
More informationR. Hallberg, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, J. P. Krasting and R. J. Stouffer NOAA/GFDL & Princeton University
Sensitivity of 21st Century Steric Sea Level Rise to Ocean Model Formulation R. Hallberg, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, J. P. Krasting and R. J. Stouffer NOAA/GFDL & Princeton University Hallberg, R., A. Adcroft,
More informationSea Level. John Church WCRP Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Sea Level John Church WCRP Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Sea level rose by more than 120 m since the last glacial maximum 2 Church et al., 2008
More informationRising Sea Level Observations and Causes. Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES, Toulouse, France
Rising Sea Level Observations and Causes Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES, Toulouse, France AAAS Annual Meeting, Chicago, Feb.2009 Sea Level budget: Comparison between observed sea level and sum of climate contributions
More informationModel projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18
Model projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18 SL SpaceWatch workshop 2016 03 22 Tom Howard, Matt Palmer, Jon Tinker, Jason Lowe,. Contents Overview of UKCP18 Marine
More informationThe State of the cryosphere
The State of the cryosphere Course outline Introduction The cryosphere; what is it? The Earth; a unique planet Cryospheric components Classifications Lecture outlines The State of the cryosphere The State
More informationPatterns and impacts of ocean warming and heat uptake
Patterns and impacts of ocean warming and heat uptake Shang-Ping Xie Scripps Inst of Oceanography, UCSD Ocean warming & circulation change Ocean heat uptake & meridional overturning circulation Global
More informationThe Netherlands approach for generating climate change. scenarios. Bart van den Hurk, KNMI and many others
The Netherlands approach for generating climate change scenarios Bart van den Hurk, KNMI and many others What is the global climate problem? Climate change is normal Natural influences: Internal variability
More informationCLIMATE CHANGE DATA PROJECTIONS FOR ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BASIN
CLIMATE CHANGE DATA PROJECTIONS FOR ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BASIN ECO Climate Data Roundtable, January 8, 2014 Richard Peltier, Physics, U Toronto Regional Data Sets of Climate Change Projections 2
More informationGreenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 C global warming
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 C global warming Frank Pattyn, Catherine Ritz, Edward Hanna, Xylar Asay-Davis, Rob DeConto, Gaël Durand, Lionel Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas
More informationA Warming Arctic: Regional Drama with Global Consequences
A Warming Arctic: Regional Drama with Global Consequences Norway: Temperature in March was 3,8 C above the normal, 4th highest since 1900 Monthly precipitation for Norway was 120 % above the normal Temperaturein
More informationSecond-Order Draft Chapter 10 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Second-Order Draft Chapter IPCC WG Fourth Assessment Report Figure... Multi model mean changes in a) zonal mean cloud fraction (in %), shown as a cross section though the atmosphere, and b) total cloud
More informationTerrestrial Climate Change Variables
Terrestrial Climate Change Variables Content Terrestrial Climate Change Variables Surface Air Temperature Land Surface Temperature Sea Level Ice Level Aerosol Particles (acid rain) Terrestrial Climate
More informationGlobal sea level projections by Svetlana Jevrejeva National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK
Global sea level projections by 2100 Svetlana Jevrejeva National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK sveta@noc.ac.uk Outline Cause of sea level rise/sea level budget Global sea level projections by 2100:
More informationWhy build a climate model
Climate Modeling Why build a climate model Atmosphere H2O vapor and Clouds Absorbing gases CO2 Aerosol Land/Biota Surface vegetation Ice Sea ice Ice sheets (glaciers) Ocean Box Model (0 D) E IN = E OUT
More informationSPECIAL PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT
SPECIAL PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT Progress Reports should be 2 to 10 pages in length, depending on importance of the project. All the following mandatory information needs to be provided. Reporting year
More informationCMIP3/CMIP5 differences: Scenario (SRESA1B vs RCP4.5) Ensemble mean Tas responses: CMIP3 = 2.8 K CMIP5 = 1.9 K CMIP5 higher average resolution
CMIP3/CMIP5 differences: Scenario (SRESA1B vs RCP4.5) Ensemble mean Tas responses: CMIP3 = 2.8 K CMIP5 = 1.9 K CMIP5 higher average resolution Several `high-top models in CMIP5 Key question What are
More informationCan we see evidence of post-glacial geoidal adjustment in the current slowing rate of rotation of the Earth?
Can we see evidence of post-glacial geoidal adjustment in the current slowing rate of rotation of the Earth? BARRETO L., FORTIN M.-A., IREDALE A. In this simple analysis, we compare the historical record
More informationIntroduction to Global Warming
Introduction to Global Warming Cryosphere (including sea level) and its modelling Ralf GREVE Institute of Low Temperature Science Hokkaido University Sapporo, 2010.09.14 http://wwwice.lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp/~greve/
More informationHydrosphere The hydrosphere includes all water on Earth.
Hydrosphere The hydrosphere includes all water on Earth. The abundance of water on Earth is a unique feature that clearly distinguishes our "Blue Planet" from others in the solar system. Not a drop of
More informationWhere is Earth s Water?
PASSAGE 1 Where is Earth s Water? Our planet contains a limited amount of water that is always in motion. The water that comes out of your faucet moved through the atmosphere, flowed across Earth s surface,
More informationFuture Climate and Sea Level
Future Climate and Sea Level Tonight: 2 nd night on human changes and controversy around them. three night series : 1) An Inconvenient truth 2) Impacts: Observed Warming and Projected Sea Level Changes
More informationRISING SEA. Reading Practice. Paragraph 1. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
Reading Practice RISING SEA Paragraph 1. INCREASED TEMPERATURES The average air temperature at the surface of the earth has risen this century, as has the temperature of ocean surface waters. Because water
More information1.Decadal prediction ( ) 2. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond)
Coordinated climate change experiments (formulated by WGCM and AIMES) to be run for assessment in IPCC AR5 Two classes of models to address two time frames and two sets of science questions: 1.Decadal
More informationCLIMATE READY BOSTON. Climate Projections Consensus ADAPTED FROM THE BOSTON RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP REPORT MAY 2016
CLIMATE READY BOSTON Sasaki Steering Committee Meeting, March 28 nd, 2016 Climate Projections Consensus ADAPTED FROM THE BOSTON RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP REPORT MAY 2016 WHAT S IN STORE FOR BOSTON S CLIMATE?
More informationSeamless weather and climate for security planning
Seamless weather and climate for security planning Kirsty Lewis, Principal Climate Change Consultant, Met Office Hadley Centre 28 June 2010 Global Climate Models Mitigation timescale changes could be avoided
More informationThe forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss
The forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss Marika Holland, NCAR With: C. Bitz (U.WA), B. Tremblay (McGill), D. Bailey (NCAR), J. Stroeve (NSIDC), M. Serreze (NSIDC), D. Lawrence (NCAR), S
More informationRegional and global trends
SEA LEVEL RISE Regional and global trends OCEANOBS 2009 Plenary Paper A.Cazenave D. Chambers, P. Cipollini, J. Hurell, S. Nerem, L.L. Fu, H.P. Plag, C.K. Shum, J. Willis Venice, September 2009 Global mean
More informationAPPENDIX A: ABSOLUTE SEA LEVEL METHODS AND PROJECTION TABLES
APPENDIX A: ABSOLUTE SEA LEVEL METHODS AND PROJECTION TABLES As described in the main body of this report, absolute sea level projections were developed using a slightly modified approach from Kopp et
More informationField Research Facility
Field Research Facility Sea Level Rise Observations of Sea Level rise Forces driving change Predicting future Sea Level rise Response of land surface Storm inundation coupled with Sea Level Dr. Jesse McNinch
More informationWhat is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
More information