Climate Change. Climate Change Service

Transcription

1 Service

2 The C3S m ission To support European adaptation and mitigation policies by: Providing consistent and authoritative information about climate Building on existing capabilities and infrastructures (nationally, in Europe and worldwide) Stimulating the market for climate services in Europe

3 Access to past, present and future climate information Earth system models Observations and climate reanalyses Seasonal forecast data and products model simulations

4 C3S: Reanalysis based Essential Variables (30km global ERA5) Hourly data and increased number of parameters Uncertainty estimate Spread in Surface Pressure (hpa) Courtesy: Philip Brohan January 1979 July 2014 ERA5 Almost complete! (1979/2017) Reflects variations in: ingested observing system flow dependent sensitivity Credit: H. Hersbach, ECMWF

5 C3S: EO based Essential Variables Heritage/coordination: ESA CCI EUMETSAT SAFs Other Copernicus Services etc..

6 C3S and in situ observations EO Lot 1: C3S data rescue EO Lot 2: Observations from global climate data archives EO Lot 3: Observations from Baseline and Reference Networks EO Lot 4: High resolution ECV products for Europe

7 indicators Trend C3S: Operational production of climate indicators Surface temperature Greenhouse gases Rain Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature, Sea Ice Glaciers Sea Level Soil Moisture

8 Monthly State of drivers: Greenhouse gases, aerosols, impacts: Temperature, precipitation, sea-ice, sea level, etc. Sea-ice cover for April The pink line denotes the climatological ice edge for April for the period Source: ERA- Interim

9 C3S seasonal forecasts Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available, to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available. Horizontal grid: global 1deg x 1deg Ensemble size: Forecasts: ~50 members Hindcasts: ~25 members x 24 years ( ) Variables Surface 7 vars every 6h +30 vars every 24h Pressure (11 levels, from 925 hpa to 10 hpa) 8 vars every 12 h Agreed netcdf specification C3S 0.1 (based on CF) Evaluation and quality control

10 Seasonal forecasts current contents Variables: sea-level pressure geopotential height precipitation air temperature Type of plots: maps: global pre-defined regions time series Publication schedule: monthly updates published on each 13 th (new feature!!)

11 Seasonal forecasts SW Indian Ocean Anomaly correlation - precipitation Start date: 1 January Target season: February-April Anomaly correlation SST, NINO3.4 Start date: 1 January Target period: monthly means, all months of the January forecast Multi-model combination Met Office Météo-France system 5 ECMWF System 4

12 projections Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX)

13 projections Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX) How: Global climate projections: Access to ESGF via the Data Store (C3S_34a Lot 1) Multi-model global product generation (C3S_34a Lot 2) Reference set of climate projections for Europe (C3S_34a Lot 3) Regional climate projections: Access to CORDEX simulations for the European domain (C3S_34b Lot 1) Production of additional climate projections for Europe (C3S_34b Lot 2)

14 C3S is an operational response to GCOS and takes an increasing role in contributing to the WMO State of the From the GCOS Website From the WMO and UNFCCC Websites

15 C3S and UNFCCC Sustainable Development Goals C3S contribution to SDGs C3S SIS addresses agriculture, and some of the global services will focus on food security C3S SIS addresses health, providing relevant climate change indicators C3S contribution to SDGs C3S SIS related to urban aspects of climate change, as well as health and infrastructure aspects, contribute indirectly to this SDG. Reanalysis products too. C3S SIS products and indicators on water management are directly relevant for this goal. Two Proof-of-concept SIS projects in C3S dedicated to water management. A urban PoC SIS is also addressing this SDG at city level. Operationalisation underway Two proof-of-concept SIS projects in C3S dedicated to the Energy Sector. Reanalyses (produced by C3S) are also highly relevant. C3S activities contribute indirectly to this SDG insofar that the energy climate impact indicators (see goal 7) are relevant. C3S is working closely with the standardisation community (via DG-CLIMA) on developing climate change information required for the writing of standards in infrastructure and transport. ECV products, including from reanalysis, CDRs, seasonal forecasts and climate scenarios, directly relevant for adaptation. The SIS also delivers relevant indicators in support of adaptation. Cooperation: EEA ADAPT Some of the ECV products generated by C3S (including reanalysis ORAS5) are ocean relevant. This is done in coordination with CMEMS. Biodiversity is a future sectoral application of C3S. Relevant products will contribute to this goal. ECV products on soil moisture, forestry, lakes, also contribute to this goal.

16 Sectoral Information System Proof-of-concepts with end-to-end demonstrators

17 Preliminary results: vines Predicted harvest date advances by 18 days (RCP4.5) and 32 days (RCP8.5)

18 Seasonal forecasts for wind indicators

19 Show Cases worldwide ( C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI) Story mapping Technical reports (scripts, tools and workflows) Added value among clients in climate adaptation

20 Indicators related to Agriculture C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR 4 data product groups: 1. forcing data for crop models all time scales, downscaled, bias corrected 2. Water based indicators Soil moisture, groundwater recharge, reservoir inflow, All aggregated river flow, to ET, SPI,... crop specific 3. Agroclimatic indicators phenological Growing degree days, huglin index, cold/heat stress calendars days, insect flight index,... growing areas 4. enhanced EarthObservation based indicators Dry Matter Productivity, ET actual,...

21 Sectoral Information System Proof-of-concepts of climate services: Demonstration of the value chain with end-to-end demonstrators As an operational Service, C3S ambitions to become an enabler of downstream climate services, by providing or brokering high quality and sector relevant climate data, good practices, tools and compelling use cases.

22 A one stop Data Store We have built a store. We are putting products on the shelves. The door has been opened to customers (June 2018).

23 Data Store C D S The CDS contains observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, global and regional climate projections and seasonal forecasts. It also contains generic and sectoral climate indicators. The CDS is designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets through a unified web interface

24 C3S infrastructure CDS concept: Access to tools, workflows and applications The CDS and its Tool Box allows managing and handling climate objects in a seamless way and within a unified environment.

25 The Data Store The CDS portal Accessing ERA5 from the CDS catalogue The CDS toolbox editor

26 Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) for the CDS data quality Quality of data Assessments User guidance Gaps and limitations Quality of tools Fitness for purpose Best practices Quality of service Speed, responsiveness System availability,

27 C3S and the ecosystem etc National Services Value chain at local level, governments, etc. Provision of pan-european dimension for national businesses EEA ( Adapt): State of for Europe Indicators CDS toolbox CC IV report DG-Clima NOAA: Coordination on observations and CDR issues with NCEI In-kind contribution of NCEP seasonal forecasts GFCS: Global products (ECVs, reanalyses, seasonal forecasts and projections) WIS compliance Training and outreach Global SIS Liaison with RCCs H2020/ERA4CS/JPI/KIC/etc.: CDS as a data resource Liaison with RD projects Underpinning science Coordination with DG- DEvCO GEO & UNFCCC: C3S discoverable through GEOSS portal Contribution to many SDGs WMO & GCOS: C3S ECVs and global indicators WMO State of the

28 Conclusions C3S has developed a state-of-the-art cloud infrastructure that makes it simple for users to freely access an unprecedented range of quality-controlled climate data and information. C3S serves a wide range of European and worldwide users and bodies: EU DGs, WMO, GCOS, GFCS, EEA, etc. The Data Store provides a compute layer allowing users to create and run their own applications/workflows on the cloud without downloading huge volumes of data. The system comes with a series of exemplar applications to show how the infrastructure can be used to address specific user needs: SISs (Europe, Global), Use Cases, Demonstrators Downstream Services Training (including training the trainers) is now becoming an important component of the Service The Quality Assurance process within C3S is unique and absolutely critical