Copernicus Climate Change Service

Transcription

1 Copernicus Service Anca Brookshaw, ECMWF

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3 C3S in a nutshell Evaluation & QC function International expert panel Quality assurance Integrity of Service User requirements from European commission e.g.,fp7 Space call, H2020 Data Store Sectoral Information System from EU Member States, ESA, EUMETSAT, EEA, WMO.. Outreach & Dissemination Stakeholders & users

4 C3S components Data Store Sectoral Information System Evaluation and Quality Control Outreach and Dissemination ECVs past, present and future Observed, reanalysed and simulated Derived climate indicators Tools to support adaptation and mitigation at global and European level Monitors quality of C3S products and services Ensures C3S delivers state-of-the-art climate information to end-users Identifies gaps in service provision Bridges Copernicus with the research agenda in Europe (e.g. H2020, national research projects) Web content Public outreach Coordination with national outreach Liaison with public authorities Conferences, seminars Training and education 4

5 Data Store content Scientific basis: Essential Variables as defined by GCOS GCOS Status Report and Implementation Plan IPCC, CMIP Action engaged In preparation (PIN or ITT out) Not started Observations reanalysis Model output Global estimates of ECVs from satellite and insitu observations Global atmosphere, ocean, land Multi-model seasonal forecast products Reprocessed CDRs, reference observations Regional reanalysis for Europe Access to CMIP data and products (global and regional) Support for data rescue, climate data collections Coupled climate reanalysis for 100 years Reference set of climate projections for Europe Indicators

6 Data Store content - reanalysis Global reanalysis: ERA5 is now in production (3 streams) 32km global resolution Uncertainty estimates Improved use of observations Newly reprocessed satellite data Hourly data from 1979-NRT Access to all input observations (via the Observation Feedback Archive) Development of a Monitoring Facility Regional reanalysis: European domain (including Arctic?) Higher spatial resolution Workshop organised 2016 Q2 Competitive call by 2016 Q4 EUMETSAT reprocessing activity

7 monitoring Production of ERA-interim has been accelerated to feed a monthly State of Average surface air temperature anomalies for the last 12 months ( to ) 16 warmest years on record: 1998 and Average surface air temperature October 2016

8 C3S seasonal forecasts Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available, to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available. C3S seasonal service will be based on a multi-system framework. Five European forecast systems have been selected: three for immediate use (2016; core providers): ECMWF, Met Office, Météo France two for later use, following further development (2017; additional providers): Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Interest in collaboration expressed by NCEP and JMA; terms and timings to be discussed. Evaluation and quality control (EQC) function

9 Seasonal forecasts- first release 12/2016 An example of C3S operational preview: Multi-model seasonal forecasts Meteo-France UK MetOffice ECMWF (CMCC & DWD)

10 Seasonal forecasts- graphical products Variables: sea-level pressure geopotential height precipitation air temperature Type of plots: maps: global pre-defined regions time series Publication schedule: monthly updates published on each 15 th

11 Seasonal forecasts- example

12 Seasonal forecast data products Original data: 1 deg gridded data sets for many variables (atmosphere, ocean; high temporal resolution: 6h - 24h) Processed data, starting with all data represented in the graphs and requests from SIS projects Forecasts from individual systems and multi-system combinations Information on (average) skill will accompany forecast products wherever possible. Preliminary date service expected in Q

13 Seasonal forecasts- variables From the atmosphere model: every 6 hours: 2 metre temperature (or nearest equivalent) 2 metre dewpoint temperature 10 metre u wind 10 metre v wind mean sea level pressure total cloud cover skin temperature every 24 hours: sea-ice concentration sea surface temperature volumetric soil moisture level 1 volumetric soil moisture level 2 volumetric soil moisture level 3 volumetric soil moisture level 4 (or total soil moisture) surface temperature snow depth (water equivalent) snow density Tmax and Tmin at 2 metres Max 10m wind gust every 24 hours, accumulated: large scale precipitation convective precipitation (or total precipitation) snow fall surface sensible heat flux surface latent heat flux surface solar radiation downwards surface thermal radiation downwards surface solar radiation surface thermal radiation top solar radiation top thermal radiation east-west surface stress north-south surface stress evaporation every 12 hours: geopotential temperature specific humidity vorticity/divergence or u/v wind components at 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200, 100, 50, 30, 10 hpa From the ocean model: every 24h: Sea-level (without tides) Depth of 28 deg isotherm Depth of 26 deg isotherm Depth of 20 deg isotherm Mixed layer depth Surface salinity Zonal surface current Meridional surface current

14 Technical description Proof of concept phase (core providers only) spatial resolution of data: 1 deg or original grid temporal resolution of data: daily or sub-daily forecasts and reforecasts ( ) data delivery by 12Z on 10 th day of month (product release on 15 th day of month) Pre-operational (all providers) spatial resolution of data: 1 deg or original grid temporal resolution of data: daily or sub-daily ocean data: on a grid to be agreed forecasts and reforecasts ( ) data delivery by 12Z on 6 th day of month (product release on 10 th day of month)

15 Seasonal forecasts- evaluation Evaluation and quality control (EQC) function for seasonal forecast products contracted with consortium led by Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BCS). Includes: assessment of user needs inventory of climate data scientific assessment and gap analysis of information available to users usability of service and products (from technical perspective) recommendations for bridging identified gaps prototype software for on-demand user evaluation of seasonal information.

16 projections Global projection-related service Provision of support to one Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node in Europe solution for access to and manipulation of global climate projections from the CMIP archive, consistent with the requirements of climate services. Multi-model product generation metrics for fidelity of models in simulating historical climate, to be translated into quality for specific applications interactive tools for generic products (e.g. maps of intra-ensemble variability for different models and scenarios), and tailored products for several economic sectors Roadmap towards a reference set of climate projections for Europe: studies on how well climate projections address sectoral needs, to guide requirements for the operational phase of C3S. Areas of interest: the benefit of ensemble size versus resolution for global models, and the benefit of initialised decadal predictions, in relation to the specific needs of different economic sectors. Regional climate projection service The goal to facilitate access to and manipulation (via the CDS) of output of regional climate projections over Europe and boundary conditions from GCM simulations needed for future regional projections. to define, agree and complete a matrix of global/regional model combinations and scenarios, which allows robust assessment of the uncertainties arising from these factors in a multi-model set of regional projections. The Invitation to Tender has recently been published Evaluation and quality control component for climate projection-based services similar in concept to the equivalent activity for the seasonal forecast service; started in September.

17 18 Sectoral Information System Proof of concept development of sectoral applications Copernicus Service

18 Sectoral Information System Seven proof of concept SIS contracts have been awarded: SIS water management: SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in adaptation) lead SMHI (Sweden) EDgE (End-to-End demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe) Lead CEH (UK) SIS energy: CLIM4ENERGY ( for Energy) Lead CEA (France) ECEM (European Climatic Energy Mixes) Lead UEA (UK) SIS others: AgriCLASS (Agriculture Advisory Services) Lead Telespazio Vega (UK) WISC (Windstorm Information Service) Lead CGI (UK) URBAN-SIS (touching health, infrastructure,..) Lead SMHI (Sweden) 19 No noticeable delays in the deliverables ( so far). Quality of the output generally high.

19 Data Store / Toolbox- Concept CLIMATE DATA STORE

20 Data Store / Toolbox- Concept The Toolbox relies on the CDS Infrastructure CLOUD HOSTING Cloud Hosting

21 Data Store / Toolbox- Concept Data Store / Toolbox Concept

22 Data Store / Toolbox - Challenges Technical challenges: Diversity of users Diversity of data sets Very large data volumes Data residing at different locations Interoperability, efficiency User-defined workflows Variety of presentation methods Need for interactivity Access via API User management Performance monitoring maps text controls graphs

23 Data Store / Toolbox - Web Portal Content Management System (articles, news, events, ) Catalogue of products ISO19115, for interoperability with INSPIRE, GEOSS, WMO Information System, Toolbox Catalogue of analytics tools that can be invoked on the data and products of the CDS Describes algorithms and methods, input and output data, possible parameterization Users settings Profiles, preferences, licenses, Users requests Current and past users requests: data retrievals and computations Request management: monitor, cancel, download results

24 Data Store / Toolbox Broker Manages all users requests (data retrievals and computations) Knows where is what Dispatches requests to the right location Adaptors Map broker requests (data retrievals and computations) to data supplier specific protocols Quality of Services Needed to guarantee a good service when CDS will be used by many simultaneous users Uses queues to throttle processing of requests so that available resources (CPUs, disks, network) are not exhausted Implements limits for a fair use of the system (per user, per dataset, per type of computation, etc) and a for a fine grained control of resource usage Implements priorities to schedule important requests (e.g. VIP users, interactive works) before others (e.g. batch access, large computations)

25 Data Store Toolbox The Toolbox will be composed of: Tools that perform basic operations on data, such as the computation of statistics, sub-setting, averaging, value at points, etc. Workflows that combine tools by chaining them so that the output of some tools is used as input to others Applications that make use of workflows and selected data and products of the CDS, to build interactive web-pages allowing end-users to interact with the CDS A Toolbox Compute layer: When possible tools will be executed next to the data (at the data suppliers) Otherwise, computations will be performed in a dedicated compute layer Use of cloud technologies will be considered Compute layer will also hold intermediate results

26 Data Store / Toolbox Service Oriented Architecture and Orchestration Tools are available either at the data providers or in the compute layer Tools will be invoked remotely by the broker as services (SOA), using adaptors when necessary Tools are combined into workflows An orchestrator will manage the execution of workflows Parallelisation of execution whenever possible Minimisation of data transfers

27 C3S - Development timeline Mid-term review Signature of Delegation Agreement Today: first C3S General Assembly C3S first operations Stage 0/I Stage II Stage III

28 Data Store / Toolbox- Timeline 5 Sep 16 6 Sep Oct 16 4 weeks 6 x 4 weeks 6 x 4 weeks 04 Mar Sep 17 KO Sprint 0 Sprints 1-6 Sprints 7-13 SC1 End Initial Product Backlog Roadmap Release 0.1 We are here Roadmap Release 1.0 Development Environment Review Meetings (at ECMWF) Q1 Review v0.1 Review v1.0 Review

29 Data Store / Toolbox Development and environment tools Programming languages: Python and Javascript Virtualisation technology: Docker / OpenStack (From infrastructure) Scientific Python packages: NumPy, SciPy, Pandas community software tools: Metview, Magics, CDO, NCL, NCO,GDAL,.. Web Framework: React, D3 Software quality: pycodestyle, pyflakes, mypy