RHMSS and SEEVCCC activities in support of GFCS

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1 RHMSS and SEEVCCC activities in support of GFCS Goran Pejanovic Assistant Director of RHMSS November 2014, Antalya, Turkey

2 Capacities for the management of climatic data 30 main meteorological stations (with synoptic and climatologic measurement program) all data since 1961 quality controlled and homogenized 75 climatological stations ~ 50% quality controlled and homogenized 481 precipitation stations ~ 15% quality controlled and homogenized Database CLIDATA restricted access Climate products are freely available Referent climatological periods: , , Climate atlas in preparation

3 Current capacities for climate monitoring CLIMAT and SYNOP surface data Monitoring of upper air variables and teleconnection indices Risk assessment on the national level - meteorological hazards: stormy winds (v >= 17.2 m/s), hail, drought, blizzard, snow drift and black ice Analysis of climate trends is performed for the past ( ; in progress) and the future ( , RCP8.5 scenario) Climate trends frost days Frequency of the stormy winds in summer

4 Climate monitoring node monthly/daily data Monthly data available through ECA&D data base by the middle of the month - late Rainfall deficiency in JJA 2012 Reanalysis NCAR/NCEP Daily and monthly available Available at the beginning of the month August 2012

5 Long Range Forecast / Seasonal forecast Probabilistic forecast RCM-SEEVCCC LRF provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state in forthcoming season. regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model model start: 08 th of each month; operational since June forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days) model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended towards Caspian Sea 51 ensemble members initial & boundary conditions: ECMWF, ~75km winter hindcast ( ) December run, 7 months operational forecast available in GRIB via WIS-DCPC-Belgrade

6 Climate change scenarios RCM-SEEVCCC regional climate model - SINTEX-G (INGV) initial and boundary conditions on 120 km resolution - RCM-SEEVCCC - fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (EBU-POM) - resolution: ~ 35 km atmosphere, ~ 20 km ocean present climate simulation SRES A1B scenario SRES A1B and A2 scenarios NMMB regional climate model with ERA40 initial and boundary conditions - 14 km resolution, lager part of the Europe - 8 km resolution, part of the Balkan peninsula RCP8.5 with CMCC-CM initial and boundary conditions - 8 km resolution, part of the Balkan peninsula RCM-SEEVCCC NMMB

7 Data archived in Mars (ECMWF) in SEEVCCC/DCPC (WMO WIS) Seasonal forecast ensemble long range forecast using RCM-SEEVCCC model Regional 3 and 5 day forecast using WFRNMM model Dust forecast with and without assimilation using DREAM model Global forecast using GNMMB model Climate projections for A1B and A2 scenarios using RCM-SEEVCCC model Regional observations in BUFR format Projects: Aral sea, Iran, Sintex-G, Hadley center climate simulations, etc. batch request5 Estimated number of fields: 1 retrieve, date= , time=12:00:00, stream=etad, step=12, levtype=pl, expver=1, class=ro, type=fc, param= , levelist=7

8 Moisture conditions on the basis of standard precipitation index for the previous 60 days Current capacities for the provision of climate services to climate-sensitive sectors 1. Agricultural sector - agrometeorological bulletins - weekly, decadal, monthly and annual - SPI index monitoring and forecast - CROPSYST forecasts of maize yield 2. Health sector - early warnings for heat waves /cold spells - forecast of thermal conditions 3. Water sector - monitoring and forecast for specific river basins 4. Disaster risk reduction sector - risk assessment for severe meteorological events - monthly and seasonal forecast - assessment of the forest fire risk (FWI)

9 Assessment of the forest fire risk seamless forecast Assessment of the forest fire risk per month for the following 3 months at the start of the third decade of the month Assessment of the forecast fire risk per week for the following 4 weeks every Friday (example for 2 week period: August 6 to August 19, 2012) Fire Weather Index-Forecast for the next day

10 Current capacities for the provision of climate services to climate-sensitive sectors Other sectors services: - Monthly and seasonal forecast - Heating plants, Public utility company ( Gradsko zelenilo ), Public transport company (GSP), Government of the Republic of Serbia - Various climate bulletins and reports - Government of the Republic of Serbia - Climate data Universities, Insurance companies, Court network in Serbia - Airport climatography airports in Serbia (Belgrade and Nis) Communication via post and internet web, ftp-service and Regional climate forums SEECOF and MedCOF Technical support to SEECOF Still no national climate forum

11 Limitations of the NMHSs in the provision of climate services RHMSS and SEEVCCC staff responsible for the production of climate services - ~ 40 employees Critical elements: production of monthly and seasonal predictions model climatology and computer resources Priorities: - increasing computer resources - development of Global Climate Model based on NMMB atmospheric model - capacity building - closer cooperation with users at national level and with Climate Services at international level - knowledge management Create a consortium of stakeholders that would actively support activities needed for the provision of climate services.

12 Frequency of the summer drought (no. of droughts in 30 years) User interface platforms Institutionalized cooperation between RHMSS and: - Institute of Public Health of Serbia (BATUT) - Ministry of Interior Sector for Emergency management - Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection - Republic agency for spatial planning - Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS-GAS) co-production - Generali group insurance company (drought) - Heating plants - Public utility company ( Gradsko zelenilo ) - Public transport company (GSP) - Media Mostly one way communication between RHMSS and various users Insufficient feedback information

13 Good practices in the development and application of climate services SEEVCCCs participation in WMO RA VI-EUROPE RCC Network Mandatory operational functions: Climate Data Node Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) South East European gridded model datasets for , , first version RCM-SEEVCCC (ready) , new RCM-SEEVCCC (in progress, NMMB) Climate Monitoring Node Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) Collecting data from stations (monthly, stations; Main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC) Mean temperature and accumulated precipitation, Temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal, All available monthly/three-monthly Long Range Forecast Node Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 51 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

14 Climate Watch Advisory for SEE CWS issued by SEEVCCC

15 Good practices in the development and application of climate services - Projects CARPATCLIM Carpathian region, homogenization and interpolation on 10 km ORIENTGATE - A structured network for integration of climate knowledge into policy and territorial planning; SEERISK - Joint Disaster Management risk assessment and preparedness in the Danube macro-region DRIHM - Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology DMCSEE - Drought Management Centre for South East Europe STRENGTHENING CLIMATE SERVICES INFORMATION SYSTEM IN SERBIA

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