Regional Climate Downscaling over South Asia- CORDEX South Asia

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1 Regional Climate Downscaling over South Asia- CORDEX South Asia R. Krishnan (Team: J. Sanjay, M.Mujumdar,T.P. Sabin, Sandip Ingle, J.V.Revadekar,M.V.S. Ramarao, P. Priya, Madhura Ranade, B.Singh, V.Hamza, K.P.Sooraj, M.Joshi) Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune Workshop on Climate Change Projections, Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation for Third National Communication - MoEFCC October 2015

2 Source: Giorgi, ICTP

Dynamical downscaling uses a limited area, high-resolution model (a regional climate model, or RCM) driven by boundary conditions from a GCM to derive

3 Dynamical downscaling uses a limited area, high-resolution model (a regional climate model, or RCM) driven by boundary conditions from a GCM to derive smaller-scale information Lateral Boundary condition variables: Wind Temperature Water vapour Surface pressure Lower boundary condition variables: - SST - Land Use & Land cover

4 IPCC AR5: Regional downscaling methods are used to provide climate information at the smaller scales needed for many climate impact studies, and there is high confidence that downscaling adds value both in regions with highly variable topography and for various small-scale phenomena. Regional models necessarily inherit biases from the global models used to provide boundary conditions. Furthermore, the ability to systematically evaluate regional climate models, and statistical downscaling schemes, is hampered because coordinated intercomparison studies are still emerging. However, several studies have demonstrated that added value arises from higher resolution of stationary features like topography and coastlines, and from improved representation of small-scale processes like convective precipitation. WG1 Ch.9

5 South Asia

CORDEX South Asia Co-ordination Development of multi-model ensemble projections of high resolution (50km) regional climate change scenarios for South Asia Generation of regional climate projections

Development of an Earth System Grid (ESG) node at CCCR-IITM for CORDEX South Asia Archival, Management, Retrieval, Dissemination of CORDEX South Asia data Evaluation of regional climate projections

6 CORDEX South Asia Co-ordination Development of multi-model ensemble projections of high resolution (50km) regional climate change scenarios for South Asia Generation of regional climate projections at CCCR-IITM RegCM4 regional climate model LMDZ variable grid global climate model Co-ordination with partner institutions for multi-model ensemble projections SMHI, IAES, CSC, CSIRO, ICTP Development of an Earth System Grid (ESG) node at CCCR-IITM for CORDEX South Asia Archival, Management, Retrieval, Dissemination of CORDEX South Asia data Evaluation of regional climate projections over South Asia to provide relevant and reliable regional climate change information for effective harnessing of science-based climate information by Vulnerability, Impact & Adaptation (VIA) community Development of regional capacity for assessment of regional climate change

7 IITM-RegCM4 CORDEX South Asia 50km Matrix HPC Resources on IITM Aaditya: Configuration: v4.4.5; 256 X 170 X 18L grids; Dt=60s Performance: ~4yr integration/day with 576 cores (ie. on 36 nodes) Disk Storage: ~76GB/year model output. Updated 24/10/2015 Driving CMIP5 AOGCM Historical (56y;4.6TB) RCP (95yr;7.7TB) RCP (95yr;7.7TB) RCP (95yr;7.7TB) GFDL-ESM2M Completed Completed Completed CNRM-CM5 Completed Completed Completed CSIRO-Mk3.6 Completed Completed Completed HadGEM2-ES Completed Completed Completed CanESM2 Completed Completed Completed IPSL-CM5A-LR MPI-ESM-MR EC-Earth Courtesy: J. Sanjay, CCCR, IITM Thanks to ICTP: Graziano Giuliani & Filippo Giorgi

CORDEX South Asia Experiments with IITM-RegCM4 50km HPC Resources on IITM Aaditya: Configuration: v4.4.5; 256 X 170 X 18L grids; Dt=60s Performance: ~4yr integration/day with 576 cores (ie.

8 CORDEX South Asia Experiments with IITM-RegCM4 50km HPC Resources on IITM Aaditya: Configuration: v4.4.5; 256 X 170 X 18L grids; Dt=60s Performance: ~4yr integration/day with 576 cores (ie.on 36 nodes) Disk Storage: ~76GB/year model output Completed CMIP5 Downscaling of Historical(56y; ), RCP8.5(95y; ), RCP4.5(95y; ) Driven with 5 CMIP5 AOGCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6, Total simulation period: 1230 years Total Disk Storage: ~100 TB HadGEM2-ES & CanESM2 Model outputs are being post processed & extracted for publishing on the CCCR-IITM ESGF data node

CORDEX South Asia data (50km) is available on the CCCR-IITM Climate Data Portal (non-esg): http://cccr.tropmet.res.

10 CORDEX South Asia data (50km) is available on the CCCR-IITM Climate Data Portal (non-esg): Thanks to: S. Ingle M. Mujumdar

CORDEX South Asia RCM historical simulations driven with CMIP5 AOGCMs The biases in simulated annual mean precipitation (mm d -1 ) for 1990-2004 against the CRU data Model Label Model Name & Version

11 CORDEX South Asia RCM historical simulations driven with CMIP5 AOGCMs The biases in simulated annual mean precipitation (mm d -1 ) for against the CRU data Model Label Model Name & Version Driving CMIP5 AOGCM H1 COSMO CLM MPI-ESM-LR H2 ICTP RegCMv4.1 GFDL-ESM2M H3 SMHI RCAv4 EC-EARTH H4 IPSL LMDZv4 IPSL-CM5A-LR H5 ICTP RegCMv4.1 LMDZ4 Ø The individual RCM bias vary from dry to wet over central India in the historical simulations: H1 (Fig. a) to H4 (Fig. d) Ø The spatial distribution of the bias is similar for the two simulations H2 (Fig.b) & H5 (Fig.e) with the ICTP RegCM RCM driven with different global models (LMDZ4 & GFDL-ESM2M) (f)hm ICRC CORDEX 2013 (

12 Spatial pattern correlations and Standardized deviations of the simulated annual mean precipitation and surface air temperature climatology ( ) with respect to the observed (CRU) data over the South Asia land region (60 o E-100 o E; 5 o N-35 o N) Precipitation Surface Air Temperature 10 CMIP5 AOGCMs (C1-C10; green triangles), 6 RCMs driven with ERAI (E1-E6; blue squares), 5 RCMs driven with CMIP5 (H1-H5; red circles). The CM, EM, HM and EI denote their ensemble means and ERAI respectively. Sanjay et al. (

13 Sanjay et al. under revision CORDEX RCP4.5 future projected changes averaged over land grid points in South Asia (60 o E-100 o E, 5 o N-35 o N). Changes are relative to

14 Thanks to: Sandip Ingle (CCCR, IITM) Prashanth Dwarakanath (NSC, SMHI) Nikulin Grigory (SMHI)

17 Development of end-to-end (climate to end-users) projects Initiated State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) A group of experts identified to work on all the states for a uniformly co-ordinated SAPCC Dr. Mrs. Ashwini Kulkarni, IITM, Pune CORDEX data and analysis Prof. Vimal Mishra, IIT, Gandhinagar Hydrology Prof. Subimal Ghosh, IIT, Mumbai Statistical downscaling Prof. Subhakar Karmakar, IIT, Mumbai Vulnerability Analysis

18 Publica/ons relevant to CORDEX South Asia TP Sabin, R Krishnan, J Gha1as, S Denvil, JL Dufresne, F Hourdin, P. Terray (2013): High-resoluHon simulahon of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resoluhon global climate model. Clim Dyn. 41 (1), P. Priya, M. Mujumdar, T.P. Sabin, P. Terray, R. Krishnan (2015): Impacts of Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Summer Monsoon CirculaHon and Heavy PrecipitaHon over Northwest India Pakistan Region during J. Climate, 28, M.V.S. Ramarao, R. Krishnan, J. Sanjay, TP Sabin (2015): Understanding land-surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate. Earth System Dynamics. DOI: /esdd R. Krishnan, TP Sabin, R Vellore, M Mujumdar, J Sanjay, BN Goswami, F Hourdin, JL Dufresne, P. Terray (2015): Deciphering the desiccahon trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world. Climate Dynamics, DOI: /s V. Mishra, D. Kumar, A.R. Ganguly, J. Sanjay, M. Mujumdar, R. Krishnan and R.D. Shah (2014): Reliability of regional and global models to simulate precipitahon extremes over India. J. Geophy. Res (Atmos), 119 (15), V. Mishra (2015): ClimaHc uncertainty in Himalayan water towers. J. Geophy. Res (Atmos), DOI: /2014JD Lodh A., R. Raghava, K. Singh, S. Kumar (2014): Climatology of atmospheric flow and land surface fields of Indian monsoon captured in high resoluhon global and regional climate model. J. Earth Sci. Climate Change, h1p://dx.doi.org/ / s S. Ghimire, A. Choudhary, AP Dimri (2015): Assessment of performance of CORDEX South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitahon over the Himalayan region during present climate. Part 1. Climate Dynamics, DOI: /s

19 Thanks for your attention

Thoughts on CORDEX future plans (Krishnan) CORDEX regional groups are currently discussing plans for the next

push for the CORDEX groups to move to a higher resoluhon, either 25km

5km will be challenging in terms of computer resources.

20 Thoughts on CORDEX future plans (Krishnan) CORDEX regional groups are currently discussing plans for the next few years; the immediate plan is to have regional simulahons with boundary condihons from CMIP5 There is a push for the CORDEX groups to move to a higher resoluhon, either 25km or 12.5km. Some groups including S Asia & SE Asia feel that simulahons at 12.5km will be challenging in terms of computer resources. For South Asia, we (IITM) plan to do a few simulahons at 25km. These issues are shll being discussed among the CORDEX groups InternaHonal Project Office for CORDEX is hosted at SMHI, Sweden (see the website: h1o:// See also PDF

CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models

Seventh ICTP Workshop on THE THEORY AND USE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS 12-23 May 2014 Miramare, Trieste, Italy CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models J. Sanjay Centre for