High-resolution (10km) ensemble regional climate projections for SE Asia
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1 High-resolution (10km) ensemble regional climate projections for SE Asia Jack Katzfey, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere May 2016 Kim NGUYEN, John MCGREGOR, Peter HOFFMANN, Suppiah RAMASAMY, Tim ERWIN, John CHURCH, Didier MONSELESAN, Alex SMEJGL (CSIRO) Hien Thuan NGUYEN, Hiep Van NGUYEN, Mai Van KHEIM, Thang Van NGUYEN, Kien Ba TRUONG, Thang Van VU (IMHEN) Tan PHAN-VAN, Trung NGUYEN-QUANG, Thanh NGU-DUC, Long TRINH-TUAN (HUS)
2 Outline Experimental Design GCM selec4on Bias and variance correc4on of GCM SSTs Sample of results over SE Asia Climate Futures Tool Summary
3 Experiment Design , , RegCM4 (~20km) RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 Global CCAM 100 km GCM (~200 km) Global model SST and sea ice Global CCAM 50 km -> CORDEX GCM SST/SIC with bias and variance correc0on CCAM (~10 km) Additional Downscaling Katzfey, et al., 2016: High-resolution simulations for Vietnam Methodology and evaluation of current climate, APJAS
4 Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) Variable resolution global atmospheric model - Schmidt transformation 2 time-level semi-lagrangian, semiimplicit, with a posteriori conservation Total-variation-diminishing vertical advection Non-hydrostatic Reversible staggering (A <-> C) - produces good dispersion properties Cumulus convection: McGregor Explicit modelling of water vapour, liquid and ice: Rotstayn Parameterization of turbulent boundary layer: MO with NonLocal 6 layers for soil temperatures and moisture CABLE surface representation: 5 land-use types per grid box Latest GFDL radiation code Prognostic aerosols
5 GCM SelecIon: Requirements Good performance in present climate Simula4on of rainfall, air temperature etc. Reproduce observed trends Good SSTs ENSO pagern/frequency SST distribu4on Look at: 24 CMIP5 models > 20 evalua4on studies 6 publica4ons with rankings + evalua4on used within the project Peer- reviewed or submiged Good spread of climate change signals
6 GCM SelecIon: Final ranking The rankings of the individual studies are averaged to yield a final ranking of the models Selection based upon spread of climate change patterns in SSTs Plan to do more GCMs as time and resources permit Rank GCM Average Score 1 CNRM- CM CCSM ACCESS NorESM1- M ACCESS MPI- ESM- LR GFDL- CM HadGEM2- CC MIROC4h MIROC GFDL- ESM2M MRI- CGCM HadCM IPSL- CM5A- MR HadGEM2- ES FGOALS- g CSIRO- Mk inmcm CanESM MIROC- ESM- CHEM GISS- ES- H IPSL- CM5A- LR FGOALS- s MIROC- ESM 0.84 RegCM4 RegCM4
7 SST bias correcion run global simulaion first before regional downscaling Observa4ons daily op4mum interpola4on SST & SIC (Reynolds et al., 2007) 1/4 resolu4on for Method adjust variance adjust mean OBS GCM frequency SST Modifica4ons variance correc4on decreases linearly with la4tude no variance correc4on North (South) of 50 N ( S) reduc4on of bias correc4on with sea ice concentra4on
8 SST bias correcion: example of ACCESS1.0 JAN JUL original NOTE: Do not use GCM atmosphere ager correc4on CCAM generates own atmosphere in response to new SSTs ACCESS1.0 Observed Bias & Variance corrected SST Stdev
9 Observed annual trends at staions ( ) Temperature warmer Rainfall cooler we_er drier 10 km RCM ensemble mean projected annual changes by end- of- century RCP8.5 warmer drier we_er
10 Agreement (%) of annual rainfall changes ( minus ) for RCP8.5 Based upon 11 downscaled simulations: 6 CCAM at 10 km 2 RegCM4 at 20 km 3 PRECIS at 25 km Terrain Some suggestion of agreement of enhancement of rainfall in upslope regions
11 Oct-Nov Dec-Mar Seasonal muli- model % rainfall change by , RCP8.5 Projected rainfall changes vary by region and season Decreases are projected during the Southwest Monsoon Based on 6 CCAM and 2 RegCM4 simulations Apr-May Jun-Sep
12 Average annual number of Tropical Cyclones Based upon the 6 CCAM simulations Average tropical cyclone density for the period (top left) Current climate Median change Changes for relative to for RCP8.5 Median change (top right) Largest decrease (bottom left) Largest increase (bottom right) 10 th %tile change 90 th %tile change
13 Extremes by end- of- century Rainfall and length of monsoon season decrease Decreases in frequency of tropical cyclones but Intensity needs further investigation Decrease in extreme rainfall along east coast and increase in Central Highlands More frequent droughts and long-term droughts becomes more severe More frequent and longer heat waves in the south More extreme rainfall More frequent droughts Less extreme rainfall More severe heatwaves
14 Climate Futures Tool: HypotheIcal Rainfall Capture in Hanoi by 2090 with RCP8.5 Need to consider range 3 cases, possibly RCM results Best case û û û û û Most Consensus û Worst case
15 Conclusions Recently completed 10 km ensemble downscaled climate projec4ons over SE Asia: Used six GCMs and two RCPs for period with bias and variance corrected SSTs 1 st : CCAM 50 km global simula4ons completed - CORDEX 2 nd : Two high- resolu4on RCMs (other RCMs added later) Projected changes: Downscaled projec4ons are different than the GCMs, with projected decrease in summer monsoon rainfall Changes in extremes vary across the region Decrease in number of tropical cyclones Climate Futures Tool developed to communicate changes and to assist end users on choice of projections to use
16 Thank you! QuesIons? Posters: Convec. Permit. Exp.: PB-022 More SE Asia results: PC-049 Reports: summaries/ Climate Futures Tool: Vietnam: Australia: Pacific: CCAM open source code available:
17 Areas of development in downscaling at CSIRO New, more uniform grid with explicit mass conserva4on TKE version of boundary layer Improved microphysical scheme more types Convec4ve- permilng simula4ons (down to 2 km) Coupling to a simplified ocean model for downscaling Direct coupling and with spectral nudging River rou4ng scheme Urban model modified TEB Op4misa4on for 1000s of cores with parallel output Land use/land cover change Soil chemistry with CABLE land surface scheme
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