Anthropogenic forcing fingerprint on the tropical Pacific sea level trend pattern from the CMIP5 simulations of the XXI st century
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1 Anthropogenic forcing fingerprint on the tropical Pacific sea level trend pattern from the CMIP5 simulations of the XXI st century Benoît t Meyssignac 1, David Salas y Melia Anny Cazenave 1 1 LEGOS, CNRM/Météo o France CLIVAR WGOMD - SOP Workshop on Sea Level Rise, Ocean/Ice Shelf Interactions and Ice Sheets 1
2 Observed Sea Level Trend Patterns from Jan to Dec. 10 (global trend removed) -1 1 Are the observed trend patterns stationnary? Are they linked to internal variability only? Is there some imprint of external forcings (anthropogenic, solar,, volcanic)?
3 Observed Sea Level Trend Patterns from Jan to Dec. 10 (global trend removed) Satellite Altimetry measurement Observed Thermal Expansion Trend Patterns from Jan to Dec. 10 (global trend removed) In situ hydrographic measurement ( Levitus et al.,1) Cazenave & Llovel, 10 Lombard et al. 09 Kohl & Stammer 08 Wunsch et al. 07
4 Observed sea level grids - satellite altimetry (since 1993) - sea level reconstruction (since( 19) 8 coupled climate models (CMIP5): CNRM-cm5, GFDL ESMG, NCAR CCSM, HadGEM ES, IPSL-cm5, MIROC 5, BCC CSM1 1, ACCESS1 0-0 year long control runs (constant external forcing) - th century runs (solar+volacanic+anthropogenic var) - run rcp run rcp.6
5 Reconstructed Sea Level Trend Patterns from Jan. 19 to Dec. 09 (global trend removed) Reconstructed sea level trend patterns (19-09) from reduced optimal interpolation (Kaplan et al 00) 99 long tide gauges records + spatial EOFs from 7-years of the DRAKKAR/NEMO ocean model SSH, 7 years of SODA reanalysis and 17 years of satellite Altimetry spatial patterns (global trend removed) Meyssignac et al. 1a Hamlington et al. 11 Ray and Douglas 11 Llovel et al. 09 Berge Nguyen et al. 08 Church et al. 0
6 Spatial trend patterns of the sea level reconstruction computed over successive 17-year windows Altimetry spatial trend patterns ( ) Reconstructed trends in successive 17-year windows Reconstructed spatial trend patterns (19(19-09)
7 Spatial trend patterns of the sea level reconstruction computed over successive 17-year windows Altimetry spatial trend patterns ( ) EOF1 of Reconstructed trends in successive 17-year windows 36.6 % of the total variance -1 1 Reconstructed spatial trend patterns (19-09) -5 5 Normalised amplitude Altimetry era 10 EOF1 of the 17-year trend Nino3 index (8-yr smoothing)
8 Observed sea level grids - satellite altimetry (since 1993) - sea level reconstruction (since( 19) 8 coupled climate models (CMIP5): CNRM-cm5, GFDL ESMG, NCAR CCSM, HadGEM ES, IPSL-cm5, MIROC 5, BCC CSM1 1, ACCESS1 0-0 year long control runs (constant external forcing) - th century runs (solar+volacanic+anthropogenic var) - run rcp run rcp.6
9 Spatial trend patterns of the CNRM control run computed over successive 17-year windows CNRM CM5 control run EOF1 of trends in successive 17-year windows % of the total variance Similar patterns in observations (reconstruction) and CNRM control run, which fluctuate with periods (- years) of sea level acceleration/deceleration ~- yr D reconstruction Normalised amplitude EOF1 of trends in successive 17-year windows. 36.6% of the total variance EOF1 of 17-year trend Nino3 index (8-yr smoothing) 0 EOF1 of 17-year trend Nino3 index (8-yr smoothing)
10 Spatial trend patterns of the CNRM control run computed over successive 17-year windows EOF1 of 17-yr windows trends from GFDL control run and Fourier analysis EOF1 of 17-year trend Nino3 index (8-yr smoothing) 0 0 years ~18- yr -1 ~8- yr -1 Nino3 index Best fit AR process 95% confidence interval 95% confidence interval EOF1 17-year trend Best fit AR process Periods of increased/decreased intensity of the trend patterns (sea level acceleration/deceleration) linked to internal low- frequency variability of ENSO
11 Spatial trend patterns of the AOCGCM control run for 8 CMIP5 models GFDL ESMG CNRM CM5 ACCESS1 0 BCC CSM1 1 ~17-19 yr -1 ~18- yr -1 ~8- yr -1 ~18-1 yr-1 ~38-1 yr IPSL CM5B LR MIROC5 NCAR CCSM HadGEM ES ~6- yr -1 ~39-6 yr -1 ~17-19 yr -1 ~3-0 yr -1 ~17-18 yr Periods of increased/decreased intensity of the trend patterns (sea level acceleration/deceleration) linked to internal low- frequency variability of ENSO
12 Confirm results obtained with 8 CMIP3 models: Meyssignac et al. 1b (clim. of the past) ~5- yr-1 ~5- yr ~18- yr ~5- yr-1 ~18- yr Periods of increased/decreased intensity of the trend patterns (sea level acceleration/deceleration) linked to internal low- frequency variability of ENSO
13 Observed sea level grids - satellite altimetry (since 1993) - sea level reconstruction (since( 19) 8 coupled climate models (CMIP5): CNRM-cm5, GFDL ESMG, NCAR CCSM, HadGEM ES, IPSL-cm5, MIROC 5, BCC CSM1 1, ACCESS1 0-0 year long control runs (constant external forcing) - th century runs (solar+volacanic+anthropogenic var) - run rcp run rcp.6
14 CMIP5 XX th century runs extended over the XXI st century with the rcp 8.5 scenario runs (it includes Volcanic+Sun variability and GHG+ Aerosols emissions) s) CNRM CM5 control run EOF1 of trends in successive 17-year windows CNRM CM5 run rcp 8.5 r1i1p1 Amplitude run rcp 8.5 ri1p1 Amplitude run rcp 8.5 ri1p1 Amplitude Amplitude 0.1 run rcp 8.5 r6i1p1 Amplitude period 6 run rcp 8.5 r10i1p1 Amplitude
15 CMIP5 XX th century runs extended over the XXI st century with the rcp 8.5 scenario runs (it includes Volcanic+Sun variability and GHG+ Aerosols emissions) s) GFDL ESMG CNRM CM5 ACCESS1 0 BCC CSM1 1 ~-6 yr -1 ~3-0 yr -1 ~- yr -1 ~6- yr -1 ~-38 yr -1 ~38- yr -1 r,6 r10 r r IPSL CM5B LR MIROC5 NCAR CCSM ~17-19 yr -1 ~- yr -1 r r5 HadGEM ES ~-36 yr -1 ~-8 yr -1 ~3-36 yr -1 r3 r ~36- yr -1 r1, The fluctuations of the trend patterns in XX th century runs extended with rcp 8.5 scenario have significantly (SL> 95%) higher amplitudes and lower frequencies than fluctuations of the trend patterns in the control runs
16 Observed sea level grids - satellite altimetry (since 1993) - sea level reconstruction (since( 19) 8 coupled climate models (CMIP5): CNRM-cm5, GFDL ESMG, NCAR CCSM, HadGEM ES, IPSL-cm5, MIROC 5, BCC CSM1 1, ACCESS1 0-0 year long control runs (constant external forcing) - th century runs (solar+volacanic+anthropogenic var) - run rcp run rcp.6
17 CMIP5 XX th century runs extended over the XXI st century with the rcp.6 scenario runs (it includes Volcanic+Sun variability and GHG+ Aerosols emissions) GFDL ESMG CNRM CM5 ACCESS1 0 BCC CSM1 1 ~38- yr -1 r1 No rcp.6 run available IPSL CM5B LR MIROC5 NCAR CCSM HadGEM ES ~- yr -1 r5 No rcp.6 run available ~36- yr -1 r The fluctuations of the trend patterns in c3m runs extended with rcp.6 scenario are for most of them undistinguishable from fluctuations of the trend patterns in the control runs
18 Conclusions -The past sea level reconstruction suggests that the observed spatial trend patterns over the altimetry era (~17 years) in the tropical Pacific have oscillated in the past following a low frequency ENSO modulation -AOGCM runs with constant, preindustrial external forcing show similar low-frequency modulation, during which sea level accelerates/decelerates (or equivalently trend patterns of increasing/decreasing intensity) (but with different characteristic periods: 18-yr, 6-yr or 38-yr) -th Century AOGCM runs extended with rcp8.5 scenarios show spatial trend patterns in sea level similar to those observed in control runs and observations. Their temporal variability show significantly higher amplitudes and lower frequencies. (this is not the case for the rcp.6 scenarios) - CMIP5 simulations suggests that high level anthropogenic emissions (rcp8.5) may increase the amplitude of the regional variability in tropical Pacific sea level and lower the frequencies of its temporal fluctuations - In contrast, in low level anthropogenic emissions scenarios (rcp.6), the amplitude of the internal variability of the climate system in the tropics seem to hide most of the changes
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