Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ~ Links to Climate Services ~
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1 Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ~ Links to Climate Services ~ Fredolin Tangang The National University of Malaysia And CORDEX Science Advisory Team (SAT) Member & CORDEX SEA Coordinator WMO CSIS Workshop Nanjing
2 Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ~ Links to Climate Services ~ William J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University Co-Chairs Fillipo Giorgi ICTP [Website: Irene Lake, Director, CORDEX IPOC, SMHI SAT Members
3 Regional Downscaling GCM (Sweden represented by ~7 squares) RCM (Sweden represented by >150 squares) Regional climate models offer much greater detail at local and regional scales. This is vital to improve vulnerability, impact and adaptation planning, particularly with regards to extreme events etc.
4 CORDEX Scientific Vision To advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships Goals: To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and changes, through downscaling. To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information
5 CORDEX community 14 CORDEX Domains defined, South-East Asia the latest) Arctic CORDEX North America CORDEX Central America CORDEX EURO-CORDEX MED-CORDEX CORDEX Africa MENA-CORDEX Central Asia CORDEX South Asia CORDEX East Asia CORDEX South East Asia CORDEX Australasia CORDEX South America CORDEX CORDEX Antarctica The International Project Office at SMHI is the central hub Aim to coordinate and support the activities of the world-covering CORDEX domains
6 CORDEX Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling Advancing each for climate information Coordinating comparison of methods: advantages of each? Exploration of hybrid approaches
7 Pan-Asia ESD Group
8 CORDEX Domain: South America Point of Contact (POC): Dynamical downscaling contacts: 1. Silvina Solman (SAT member) - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar 2. Raymond Arritt - Iowa State University, USA, rwarritt@bruce.agron.iastate.edu 3. Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha -University of Sao Paolo, Brazil, rosmerir@model.iag.usp.br Statistical downscaling contacts: 1. Maria Bettolli - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina, bettolli@at.fcen.uba.ar Domain: South America What simulations available: 9 simulations, mostly 50 km, 1 run on 25 & 20 km; RCP8.5 & 4.5; Couple of ERA int runs
9 Domain: Central America POC: Dynamical downscaling contacts: 1. Ray Arritt - Iowa State University, USA rwarritt@bruce.agron.iastate.edu 2. Tereza Cavazos - CICESE, Mexico tcavazos@cicese.mx Statistical downscaling contacts: 1. Tannecia Stephenson (SAT member) - University of the West Indies, Jamaica tannecia.stephenson02@uwimona.edu.jm Domain: Central America What s available: several simulations in 50 km x 50 km (mostly in RCA4)
10 CORDEX Domain: Euro-CORDEX POC: Dynamical downscaling contacts: - Daniela Jacob (SAT member) - Climate Service Center, Germany; daniela.jacob@hzg.de - Stefan Sobolowski - Uni Research Centre, Bergen, Norway; stefan.sobolowski@uni.no - Eleni Katragkou - Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece; katragou@auth.gr Statistical downscaling contacts: - José Gutierrez - University of Cantabria, Spain gutierjm@unican.es or gutierjm@gmail.com Additional downscaling contact: - Claas Teichmann - Climate Service Center, Germany; claas.teichmann@hzg.de What s available: Many simulations in 50 & 10 km
11 CORDEX Domain: Africa POC: Dynamical downscaling contact: 1. Chris Lennard (SAT member) - University of Cape Town, South Africa lennard@csag.uct.ac.za 2. Richard Anyah - University of Connecticut Richard.Anyah@uconn.edu 3. Emiola Olabode Gbobaniyi - National Space Research and Development Agency, Nigeria gbobaniyi@gmail.com What s available: Many simulations in 50 km x 50 km.
12 Domain: South Asia POC: Dynamical downscaling contacts: 1. R. Krishnan (SAT member) - Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India krish@tropmet.res.in 2. Mandira Shreshta - International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal mshrestha@icimod.org Statistical downscaling contacts: 1. Lalu Das - Bidhan Chandra Krishi, India daslalu@yahoo.co.in 2. Koji Dairaku, - National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan dairaku@bosai.go.jp Domain: South Asia What s available: Many simulations in 50 km x 50 km
13 CORDEX Domain: East Asia POC: Dynamical downscalling contacts: 1. Hidetaka Sasaki - Meteorological Research Institute, Japan hsasaki@mri-jma.go.jp 2. Hyun-Suk Kang (SAT member) - Climate Research Laboratory, Korea hyunskang@korea.kr 3. Ailikun - MAIRS-IPO, China aili@mairs-essp.org Statistical downscaling contact: 1. Koji Dairaku, - National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan dairaku@bosai.go.jp Domain: East Asia What s available: some simulations in 50 km x 50 km (both RCP4.5 &8.5); moving into 25 km x 25 km
14 CORDEX Domain: Southeast Asia POC: Dynamical Downscaling contact: 1. Fredolin Tangang (SAT member) - National University of Malaysia, Malaysia ftangang@gmail.com 2. Gemma Narisma - Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines gnarisma@ateneo.edu Statistical downscaling contact: 1. for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan dairaku (at) bosai.go.jp Domain: Southeast Asia What s available: Many simulations in 25 km x 25 km (both RCP4.5 &8.5)
15 CORDEX Domain: Australasia POC: Dynamical downscaling contacts: 1. Jason Evans - ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science jason.evans@unsw.edu.au 2. Jack Katzfey - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia Jack.Katzfey@gmail.com Statistical downscaling contact: 1. Bertrand Timbal (SAT member) - National Environment Agency, Singapore, B.Timbal@nea.gov.sg Domain: Australasia What s available: a number of simulations in 50 km (both RCP4.5 &8.5)
16 CORDEX disseminates downscaled model data via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)
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18 CORDEX Data requirement Core Tier 1 Tier 2 Monthly and seasonal [ESGF] Daily [ESGF] Higher frequency (sub-daily) [Modelling centre]
19 CORDEX Scientific Challenges Added value Internal variability & added value as functions of scale; Bias correction uncertainties and consistency; User-oriented metrics Human element Coupling of regional climate and coastal megacities; Bridging with urban parameterisation development; Land use change Coordination of regional coupled modelling Ocean-ice-atmosphere; Lakes; Dynamic land surface; Cryosphere; Natural fires; Atmospheric chemistry; Carbon cycle; Aerosols; Marine biogeochemistry Precipitation Convective systems; Coastal storm systems; MJO/Monsoon Local wind systems Wind storms; Strong regional winds; Wind energy
20 Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS) Five now established: EUR+MED: Convective phenomena EUR: Impact of land use changes S. AM: Extreme precipitation events. MED: Role of natural and anthropogenic aerosols MED: Role of air-sea coupling and small-scale ocean processes More recent round of FPS proposals under review.
21 CORDEX Linkages A CMIP6 Diagnostic MIP How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios? IPCC Interest CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) Succinct set of downscalings for IPCC assessments
22 CORDEX Community ESGF CST NHMS / Users What about issues related to understanding / interpretation of model performances, behavior? Model biases?
23 CORDEX Community ESGF CST What is the best approach to communicate the information? Peer-reviewed publication? Technical Reports? NHMS / Users
24 Constraints & gaps within CORDEX Lack of resources; community intiative Driven by academic interest rather than needs in climate services Non-uniformity across domains Not all downscaled model outputs are on ESGF (technically challenging to publish these data on ESGF and requires resources)
25 The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeast Asia Project Led by Prof Fredolin Tangang 14 Countries, 20 Institutions Resolution: 25 km x 25 km ~4yrs [Nov 2013 Dec 2017]; Second Phase [3 yrs; ; 2 km x 2 km on 5 smaller sub-domains] Funded by APN and funds from individual countries (
26 Malaysia The Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR UK Australia Sweden South Korea Hong Kong Germany Japan
27 GCMs, RCMs, RCPs and Country Assignments Country GCM Institution & Country developed the GCM RCP RCM Vietnam CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Philippines HadGEM2 Hadley Centre, UK RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand MPI-ESM-MR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand EC-Earth EC-Earth consortium RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Indonesia CSIRO MK3.6 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia IPSL-CM5A-LR Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia GFDL-ESM2M GFDL, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 South Korea HadGEM2-AO Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF Sweden CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RCA3 Sweden HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO, UK RCP8.5,4.5 RCA3 Australia CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5 CCAM Australia CCSM4 NCAR, USA RCP8.5 CCAM Australia ACCESS1.3 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5 CCAM Hong Kong SAR CCSM4 or CESM NCAR, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF United Kingdom HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 PRECIS Germany MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 ROM Japan MRI-AGCM3.2 Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Japan RCP8.5,4.5 NHRCM
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29 Future Changes in R50mm Ensemble R50mm is projected to increase (Heavy rainfall is projected to become more frequent)
30 Future Changes in RX1day Ensemble RX1day (Intensity of extreme precipitation is projected to increase)
31 Thank you
http://www.ukm.edu.my/seaclid-cordex/ Addressing future climate change information gaps and data needs in the Southeast Asia region through the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX
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