World Weather Research Program: a ten years vision. PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec Jeju

Transcription

1 World Weather Research Program: a ten years vision PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec Jeju

2 An overarching question Disaster risk reduction Climate services How should we move from weather forecast to weather/climate information? Sustainable future

3 The World Weather Open Science Conference 3

4 What was achieved? Shape the thinking of an entire scientific community: the status of scientific advances and concerted identification of challenges User s perspectives Seamless prediction Urban weather and environmental prediction Sub-seasonal to Seasonal High Impact Weather Polar Prediction 4

5 User s perspectives.we re talking about the intersection of nature & society, & at that intersection it s not just physical science but the science of how to get people to listen, respond & act No it s NOT getting people to do anything Provide people with what they say they need 5

6 Renovate your information From minutes to weeks From district to neighborhood From weather information to environmental and impact ones Projected increase in heat stress nights is a concern for public health, as daily minimum temperatures show significant associations with heat-related mortality Heaton et al. (Spatial & Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology) 6

7 Seamless prediction: from weather to climate Global coupled modelling on all timescales Prediction Initial Conditions X 0 +DX 7

8 Seamless prediction: a glimpse of the future 1 hr global simulation. Horizontal resolution 870 m. Miyamoto et al, 013

9 Urban agglomerations at risk of multiple natural hazards (05) United Nations 01 9

10 Urban challenges 50% global population (70% by 050) 70% global carbon emissions 90% of GDP huge built infrastructure microclimates extensive water & food footprints massive mitigation co-benefits funding 10

11 The three WWRP strategic projects by the courtesy of Sharan Majumdar Minutes weeks Seasonal 11

12 Sub-seasonal to seasonal Sub-seasonal to seasonal Probability Days 19-5

13 Extended medium-range forecast By the courtesy of A Thorpe ECWFM 13

14 Opportunity to use information on multiple time scales Red Cross - IRI example 14

15 SS Data base: please be involved EC NCEP ECMWF UKMO Météo France HMCR CMA KMA JMA Data provider SAWS Archiving centre CAWCR 15 15

16 SS Data base: please be involved Timerange Resol. Ens. Size Freq. Hcsts Hcst length Hcst Freq Hcst Size ECMWF D 0-3 T639/319L91 51 /week On the fly Past 18y /weekly 11 UKMO D 0-60 N96L85 4 daily On the fly /month 3 NCEP D 0-45 N16L64 4 4/daily Fix /daily 1 EC D x0.6L40 1 weekly On the fly Past 15y weekly 4 CAWCR D 0-60 T47L17 33 weekly Fix /month 33 JMA D 0-34 T159L60 50 weekly Fix /month 5 KMA D 0-60 N16L85 4 daily On the fly /month 3 CMA D 0-45 T106L40 4 daily Fix 199-now daily 4 Met.Fr D 0-60 T17L31 51 monthly Fix monthly 11 SAWS D 0-60 T4L19 6 monthly Fix monthly 6 HMCR D x1.4 L8 0 weekly Fix weekly 10 16

17 High Impact Weather 17

18 High Impact Weather multi-scales Seconds Communication Hours Vulnerability and risk Information transfer Predictabiliy and Processes Multi-scale Forecasts & obs Impact Modeling m Km 18

19 High Impact Weather: key topics Urban Flood: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from flood inundation by intense rain. Disruptive Winter Weather: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from snow, ice and fog to transport, power & communications infrastructure. Wildfire: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wildfires & their smoke. Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport Urban Heat Waves & Air Pollution: Reducing mortality, morbidity and disruption from extreme heat & pollution in the megacities of the developing and newly developed world. Extreme Local Wind: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wind & wind blown debris in tropical & extra-tropical cyclones, downslope windstorms & convective storms, including tornadoes. Adrian Pearman/Caters 19

20 Question 1 T-PARC (008) - Relevant Obs for extratropical transition - Ensemble prediction - international partnerships Downstream impacts: T-NAWDEX One aspect : modification of mid-latitude waveguide by TC, and impact on Europe - Approx. 100 pubblications

21 Question 1 Landfall -Improvement of forecast products Impact forecasting Forecasters, social scientists, graphical experts, stakeholders etc -Communication of forecast products -Verification -Rapid response Key hazards to define and drive research problems flooding, surge, wind damage, other?

22 Question 40 E 60 E ANALYSIS 80 E 40 N 40 N Analysis and ECMW P Verification pe What the best diagnostic could we 0 N 0 N 40 E 60 E suggest for sub-seasonal scale? ANALYSIS 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E FORECAST : DAY E ens Sha FOR N 40 N N 40 N 40 N 40 N How should sub-seasonal information be Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System Precipitation anomaly Verification period: /TO/ N 0 N N used to increase resilience? ensemble size = 51,climate size = 90 Shaded areas significant at 10% level Contours at 1% level 0 N 0 N 0 N 40 E 60 E 80 E FORECAST : ANALYSIS DAY 5-11 FORECAST : DAY E 60 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E FORECAST : DAY E 60 E 80 E 40 E 40 E FOR 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System <-90mm Precipitation anomaly 40 N 40 N Verification period: /TO/ N 40 N N 0 N 0 N 0 N 0 N ensemble size = 51,climate size = 90 0 N 0 N Shaded areas significant at 10% level Contours at 1% level N 0 N 0 N E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E FORECAST : DAY 5-11 FORECAST : DAY 1-18 FORECAST : 40 E DAY 60 E E FORECAST 40 E : 60 E DAY E Precip anomalies : 6 July 01 August E 60 E 80 E 40 E 60 E 80 E 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N 40 N <-90mm E

23 High Impact Weather 3