TerraMaris: Proposed UK contribution to YMC

Transcription

1 TerraMaris: Proposed UK contribution to YMC Steven Woolnough 1,2 Adrian Matthews 3 (PI), Cathryn Birch 4, John Marsham 4, Nick Klingaman 1,2 Paul Barret 5, Prince Xavier 5 1 National Centre for Atmospheric Modelling, 2 University of Reading, 3 University of East Anglia, 4 University of Leeds, 5 UK Met Office

2 TerraMaris Make detailed observations of the convective-dynamical atmospheric systems and their land and ocean interactions over the MC by taking a leading role in the international YMC field experiment. Quantify the complex interactions that govern the diurnal cycle of precipitation and heating over the MC, particularly the development of the boundary layer and convection over the large islands, the generation of land-sea breezes and gravity wave circulations, and the offshore convective response to those circulations. Model the convective systems in a hierarchy of numerical modelling experiments to transform our understanding of the MC system, and to understand the mechanisms behind the systematic errors in climate models that stem from deficiencies in their representation of the MC. Deliver observations, process-based understanding, an observational testbed and recommendations for development of the next generation of convective parameterisation schemes within the NERC-UKMO ParaCon programme.

3 TerraMaris: Modelling Plans 1) Process studies of the diurnal cycle: Cloud resolving (~200m resoution) i) Observation driven case studies ii) Idealized simulations 2) Interactions of the diurnal cycle with the large-scale: Convection permitting (2km), Parametrized (15 km) i) 10 x DJF seasons including observed period ii) Sensitivtiy studies to representation of convection 3) Sensitivity of global model to representation of Maritime Continent Convection i) Impose vertical structure of heating anomalies from (2)

4 Real-time convective-scale forecast models Series of regional models nested directly inside the operational global model Forecasts run twice a day: T+120 for full 4.4 km domain T+36 for 1.5 km domains Two configurations for each domain: NEW = latest tropical configuration of the UM OLD = previous configuration Also running current and candidate future global model configurations for this area out to T Crown Copyright 2016, Met Office

5 WP1: Global scale science and modelling Improve the understanding and representation in global models of large scale atmospheric processes that influence high impact weather in SE Asia. WP2: Regional scale science and modelling Advance our understanding and representation of regional processes in convective scale models and improve their utility in forecasting severe weather WP3: Translation of science into advice & ensure science is relevant to users needs Pull through science developments into operational applications and advice that can help mitigate against high impact weather Crown Copyright 2016, Met Office

6 ParaCon 5 year joint research programme To make significant improvements to the representation of convection across a range of model scales (primarily 1 to 100km grid lengths) Met Office University of Reading University of Leeds University Cambridge University of Exeter NCAS

7 Mass flux revisited phd phd Updraught & downdraught dynamics High res Simulations Turbulent approaches to Grey zone phd Triggering, Organisation & Cloud stats Convection- Dynamics Coupling phd

8 S2S and MJO Task Force Activities Understand the processes governing the propagation of the MJO through the Maritime Continent (inc diurnal cycle, and air-sea interaction) Quantify the sub-seasonal predictability in the Maritime Continent due to the MJO Evaluate the skill of operational systems on these timescales

9 Role of the diurnal Cycle Series of experiments with supressed diurnal cycle in a range of models to look at impact on MJO simulation RAMS, GFDL (Daehyun Kim, Eric Maloney and Chidong Zhang) CAM, SPCAM (Charlotte DeMott) Including variously Case studies, hindcasts, climate simulations

10 Role of air-sea interaction on MJO Propagation (Charlotte DeMott, Nick Klingaman) SPCAM MetUM CNRM coupled coupled coupled uncoupled uncoupled uncoupled PGF unc. - c. PGF unc. - c. PGF unc. - c. Z850 composites in the absence of coupling, east-to-west PGF and q-advection are reduced, hindering MJO propagation (height anomalies normalized by EIO rainfall) dry moist Gill (1980)

11 Leveraging the MJO for Multi-Week Predictions: Improving Understanding of MJO - Maritime Continent Interactions Waliser (JPL/UCLA), Baranowski (UCLA), Jiang (UCLA), Ridout (NRL) & Flatau (NRL) Objectives Multi-model assessment based on GASS-YoTC 20-year climate simulations. Addressing feasibility of GCMs to represent multi-scale interactions in Maritime Continent region. Identifying and understanding systematic model errors related to YMC and ONR PISTON science. Relative diurnal cycle amplitude bias Progress & Plans Baranowski, Waliser, Jiang, Ridout & Flatau, 2017: Contemporary GCM Fidelity In Representing The Diurnal Cycle Of Precipitation Over The Maritime Continent, JGR (subm) Baranowski et al. Multi-scale interactions over the Maritime Continent in GCM climate simulations (namely diurnal and MJO, in preparation) Sensitivity of diurnal cycle and MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in NAVGEM model, dependence on convective time scale (NAVGEM model parameterization development/improvement and assessment activity)

12 Maritime Continent and MJO prediction (Hyemi Kim) MC prediction barrier in various subseasonal hindcasts (NOAA MAPP funded) MC propagation and its modulation by the mean state (planned) Predictability and prediction of MCcrossing MJOs ERAI ECMWF (CY40R1) Contour: U850a Shading: OLRa

13 S2S Database Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts 3 weeks behind real-time Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree) 10 pressure levels including 100,50,10hPa Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, and soil moisture and temperature Data can be downloaded via web interface or WebAPI scripts

14 S2S partners Timerange Resol. Ens. Size Freq. Hcsts Hcst length Hcst Freq Hcst Size ECMWF D 0-46 T639/319L /week On the fly Past 20y 2/weekly 11 UKMO D 0-60 N216L85 4 daily On the fly /month NCEP D 0-44 N126L64 4 4/daily Fix /daily EC D x0.6L40 21 weekly On the fly weekly CAWCR D 0-60 T47L17 33 weekly Fix /month JMA D 0-34 T319L /weekly Fix /month KMA D 0-60 N216L85 4 daily On the fly /month CMA D 0-45 T106L40 4 daily Fix daily CNRM D 0-32 T255L91 51 Weekly Fix /monthly 15 CNR- ISAC D x0.56 L54 40 weekly Fix HMCR D x1.4 L28 20 weekly Fix /month 1 weekly 10

15 Useful Websites S2S Project website with information on the project and sub-project plans, along with links to meetings and activities Links to the S2S database, including documentation eters Description of available fields