Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center

Transcription

1 International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction 12 th February 2014 Forecasting activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center Hae Jeong Kim 1, Matthew C. Wheeler 2, June Yi Lee 3, Jon C. Gottschalck 4 1 APEC Climate Center, 2 Bureau of Meteorology, 3 Pusan National University, 4 CPC/NOAA

2 Overview of APCC Mission APCC aims at promoting prosperity in the APEC region through the enhancement of economic opportunities, the reduction of economic loss and the protection of life and property through producing high quality climate prediction and delivering relevant climate information to the decision makers.

3 Operational MME Seasonal Forecast Providing climate information services based on a multi-model ensemble prediction system Multi Institutional Cooperation Seasonal Forecasts

4 Climate service s expansion into subseasonal forecast (from July 2013) Scaled up the climate information services by providing BSISO forecasts Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) One of the dominant phenomena over the Asian summer monsoon region Its large impact on wet and dry spells that influence extreme hydrometeorological events and related disasters (Kikuchi and Wang, 2010) Its forecast has been required to facilitate the reduction of economic loss and the protection of life and property Overall goal Increasing the predictive skill of the BSISO in climate models in order to improve the capability to cope with extreme events for the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in cooperation with MJO Working group and WGNE MJO Task Force.

5 Applied to the Lee et al. (2013) BSISO index The canonical northward propagating component The AMS pre-monsoon and onset component Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, X. Fu, D.E. Waliser, and I.-S. Kang, 2013: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim. Dyn., 40,

6 Participating models Institute Model Ensemble Size Forecast Period Update frequency Resolution Climate Forecast System 4 40 days Once a day T126 L64 NCEP Global Forecast System 1 16 days Once a day T574, T190 L64 Australia POAMA 2.4 multi-week model days Twice per week T47 L17 ECMWF ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System days Twice per week T639, T319 L62 UK Met Office MOGREPS days Once a day 60km L70 The participation of additional forecast centers will be essential to promote this forecasting activity!

7 Summary of the required data Specifications for the type and format of data needed from the operational centers Fields OLR, and u850 totals (anomaly fields optional) Resolution 2.5 in latitude (10 S, 7.5 S, 5 S,, 40 N) and longitude (40 E, 42.5 E, 45.0 E,, 160 E) Daily averaged (00-24Z) Update frequency Daily, or less for those systems run at a reduced frequency Additional data At beginning of transfer, send analysis data for past 120 days Format ASCII

8 BSISO real time forecast system FTP (CFS, GFS) FTP (Others) Subtract mean and climatological seasonal cycle (first 3 harmonics) Pre-processing Subtract mean of the most recent 120 days of anomaly forecast data Project anomaly onto BSISO EOFs Observed EOFs Web visualization Draw phase diagram Convert pdf to png The system automatically receives and processes the forecast data to produce the BSISO phase diagram.

9 Dissemination The final product is a phase diagram displaying BSISO1 and BSISO2 values, including the values for the recent 15 days and forecasts for the next 20 days. How to release BSISO forecast issues The BSISO forecast is updated every day with the latest information and is available from May to October at APCC webpage ( BSISO real-time forecast webpage ( fore/japcc jsp)

10 Construction of BSISO monitoring system To be released from May, 2014

11 Dynamical Model BSISO Forecasts Models show similarities with one other but there are some differences in ensemble spread, propagation speed, and amplitude. The need of verification system