Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) Science Plan Overview. Chidong Zhang, RSMAS, University of Miami

Transcription

1 Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) Science Plan Overview Chidong Zhang, RSMAS, University of Miami

2 YMC Motivations - Global Importance: Connections between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the tropics and higher latitudes, and between the troposphere and stratosphere

3 YMC Motivations - Global Importance: Connections between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the tropics and higher latitudes, and between the troposphere and stratosphere - Persistent Biases in Global Models: Diurnal cycle, MJO, mean precipitation, SST, TTL R W G W W W W?? G G W W R G G? G W G G R Courtesy of Darek Baranowski, Duane Waliser and Xianan Jiang

4 YMC Motivations - Global Importance: Connections between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the tropics and higher latitudes, and between the troposphere and stratosphere - Persistent Biases in Global Models: Diurnal cycle, MJO, mean precipitation, SST, TTL - Unique Geographic Setting: Complex air-sea-land geometry - Forecast Challenges: High-impact weather, the MJO, and climate variability

5 YMC Science Plan Websites: Goal: Observing the weather-climate system of the Earth s largest archipelago to improve understanding and prediction of its local variability and global impact Science Themes: Atmospheric Convection, Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction, Upper-Ocean Processes and Air-Sea Interaction, Aerosol, Prediction Improvement Main Activities: Two-Year Data Sharing, Field Campaigns, Modeling, Prediction and Application, Outreach and Capacity Building Objectives: Build a comprehensive database of the MC weather-climate system Advance modeling and prediction capability Educate the next generation of scientists who are dedicated to solving the MC problems.

6 Science Themes: 1. Atmospheric Convection (a) Diurnal cycle Hypothesis 1.1: Three steps: triggering, propagation, growth (TPG) Hypothesis 1.2: TPG -> contrasts in convection (land/water, islands) YMC Science Plan Courtesy of Shuyi Chen and Brandon Kerns (b) Diurnal cycle Large-scale (MJO, monsoons) interaction Hypothesis 1.3: Large-scale modulation of timing, location, and vigor of TPG Hypothesis 1.4: TPG -> Different diurnal responses to large-scale modulation (c) MJO barrier Hypothesis 1.5: MCS over water -> MJO propagation through the MC Hypothesis 1.6: TPG and MCS over water <-> MJO barrier (d) Interaction between the MC and E/SE Asia Hypothesis 1.6: Role of cold surges in multi-scale interaction

7 YMC Science Plan Science Themes: 2. Ocean and Air-Sea Interaction (a) Upper-ocean processes: mixing, advection, upwelling, wave propagation (b) Air-sea interaction: forcing to the ocean, effects on MCSs over water, diurnal vs. other timescales General issues: - Relative roles of competing processes: near inertial waves, tide, atmospheric forcing, advection, upwelling, wave propagation, etc. - Spatial differences: bathymetry, - depth, internal vs. external forcing - MC seas compared to open oceans Koch-Larrouy et al. (2007) Sprintall et al., (Nature Geosci. 2014)

8 YMC Science Plan Science Themes: 3. Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction (a) TTL: dehydration and cirrus-cloud formation (b) Convection: Penetration vs. wave generation (c) Large-scale processes: Quasi-horizontal transports, Asian monsoon, Diurnal atmospheric tide

9 Science Themes: YMC Science Plan 4. Aerosol - Effects of rainfall and wind on production, transport, mixing, deposition, distribution, and sizes of aerosol - Effects of aerosol on cloud microphysics and dynamics, and rainfall Hypothesis 4.1: Concentrations and the vertical distributions of aerosols are modulated by the monsoon, MJO, and land-sea breezes. MCS-driven precipitation is an essential scavenging mechanism that limits regional transport and the depth of aerosol layer presence. Aerosol-modified cloud microphysics within the convective core influences storm strength, precipitation, vertical depth, and cloud lifetimes. Courtesy of Jeffery Reid

10 YMC Science Plan Science Themes: 5. Prediction Improvement (a) Prediction of the MC region; (b) Global prediction related to the MC; (c) Prediction model improvement through YMC - Model reproduction of land/ocean breeze circulation, and TPG - Effects of equatorial waves, monsoon surges, ENSO and MJO on MC rainfall - Effects of soil moisture - MC effects on remote areas - Initialization, data assimilation, and evaluation - Applications of YMC field observation Bias of November-March mean rainfall in atmosphereonly Met Office Unified Model GA6.0 (AMIP-type simulation) Courtesy of Cathryn Birch

11 YMC Science Plan YMC Main Activities: 1. Data Sharing Rain$gauge$sta3ons$$ Radiosonde Observation Network (35 sites) New$Rason$2014$ New$Rason$2015$ AERONET & MPLNET Site Plan: Open to Modifications for YMC! Weather Radar: Exist & Plan Note:)Radar s)coverage)150)km) Exis%ng,)30)Sites)Radar) Build)2014,)4Sites)Radar) ,)18)New)Sites)) NUS (AERONET/MPLNET) GAW AERONET!! MPLNET! Active!! Active! Planned!! Planned!

12 YMC Science Plan YMC Main Activities: 1. Data Sharing 2. Field Campaign 3. Modeling 4. Prediction and Applications 5. Outreach and Capacity Building

13 Synergy with other projects: YMC Science Plan 1. Propagation of Intra-Seasonal Tropical Oscillations (PISTON) - integrated in YMC 2. Cloud-Aerosol-Monsoon Philippines Experiment (CAMPEx) integrated in YMC 3. International Indian Ocean Expedition 2 (IIOE-2) partially integrated in YMC 4. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S)/MJO Task Force (MJOTF) Joint Maritime Continent Initiative Joint effort with YMC? 5. CORDEX-Southeast Asia (CORDEX SA) - partially integrated into YMC? 6. Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) - share ECMWF data support 7. Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) - joint effort with YMC 8. Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) -?? 9. Strateole-2 - partially integrated in YMC

14 YMC Field Campaign: Ideal Setting MJO/Monsoon T-S Exchange Multi-scale Multifaceted Interactive MCS Night-MorningMCS Afternoon Latent and sensible fluxes wind Advection Tides Wind- and Buoyancy- Driven Mixing

15 YMC Implementation Plan Focused Observing Areas

16 YMC Implementation Plan Tentative Deployment Timeline R/V Mirai JAMSTEC ground facilities R/V Dayang #1 R/V B. Jaya III and Geomarine III R/V XiangYangHong 18 UND facilities (flux tower, radiometers, ceilometers) UND facilities (radiosondes, lidars) Taiwan Consortium facilities NASA P-3B (CAMPEx) UK Consortium facilities KITCube or KITCube X-band Doppler radar R/V Sally Ride (PISTON) NCAR facilities (Plan A) NCAR facilities (Plan B) Aeroclippers NCAR C-130 (Plan B) Oceanic autonomous devices and moorings NCAR C-130 (Plan A) Oceanic autonomous devices R/V and moorings ETH cloud chamber CNR Raman lidar NCAR C-130 R/V Investigator (Plan A) AMF-1 0 July Jan July Jan July