Impact of Intraseasonal Variations to the Spatial Distribution of Coastal Heavy Rainbands Intensity During HARIMAU IOP 2011 in the West Sumatera

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1 Impact of Intraseasonal Variations to the Spatial Distribution of Coastal Heavy Rainbands Intensity During HARIMAU IOP 2011 in the West Sumatera Ardhi Adhary Arbain, Yekti Galihselowati Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Indonesia Shuichi Mori Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology/Climatology in Indonesia Jakarta, February 28, 2013

2 OUTLINE Background The Characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent Coastal Heavy Rainbands (CHeRs) Overview and Previous Studies Motivations and Objectives Datasets Results v Regional Variability (Satellite) v Local Variability (Radar) Summary and Discussion

3 BACKGROUND What is the characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC)? TRMM Website Annual Rainfall (TRMM 3B43), Diurnal Variation Maritime Continent Pacific Ocean (Mori et al., 2004) Latent heating Warm Water Solar heating Rainfall Sprinkler Latent heating Warm Water Air-Sea Interaction Air-Sea Interaction Air-Land-Sea Interaction mini El Niño Diurnal Cycle Intraseasonal Variations (MJO, Kelvin Wave, Equatorial Rossby Wave etc.) Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) : The longest coastlines The most active convective clouds Affected by Diurnal, Intraseasonal, Seasonal and Interannual variations The largest rainfall Convection/circulation anomalies in the tropics can influence all over the world!

4 COASTAL HEAVY RAINBANDS (CHERS) CHeRs are widely confirmed in the Asian Monsoon regions after the TRMM era. CHeRs along Sumatera Island are the strongest and mostly generated by Diurnal Cycle (Mori et al., 2004, 2011) TRMM3A25 analysis by Dr. Mori The 2 nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010 Mori et al., 2004 CHeRs mechanism could be explained by wind-terrain interaction (Xie et al., 2006). How about ISVs? La Nina QSCAT sea surface wind El Nino Xie et al., 2006 GSMaP MWR analysis by Arbain & Galihselowati The 2 nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010 CHeRs intensity and distribution also affected by Seasonal & Interannual Variations.

5 MOTIVATIONS Most of important cities in Asian monsoon region are located near the coastline (e.g. Jakarta, Padang, Bangkok etc.) Bangkok The cities are vulnerable to disasters caused by CHeRs Padang, 2012 Bandar Seri Begawan Padang Singapore Jakarta, 2007 Jakarta Makassar GSMaP MWR, Bangkok, 2011 There are not so many studies of CHeRs over IMC, especially about their connections to multi-scale atmospheric variations in the tropics (ENSO, IOD, MJO, Tropical waves etc.). The study of CHeRs is important for the social community and human lives in Asian monsoon Region, as well as for meteorological and climatological points of view!

6 OBJECTIVES To understand the dynamics and diurnal variability of CHeRs related to Intraseasonal Variations (ISVs) in the Sumatera Region, especially over Padang and surrounding area, during HARIMAU IOP (Intensive Observation Period) MPR HARIMAU IOP 2011 West Sumatera, December 1 31, 2011 SUMATERA ISLAND AWS RAWINSONDE PUTUS + MIA + TABING MIA - XDR SIPORA Hydrometeorological ARray for Intraseasonal variation Monsoon AUto-monitoring (HARIMAU)

7 DATASETS 1. REGIONAL SCALE DATA Hourly Global Rainfall Map in Near-Real-Time (GSMaP NRT) products, with 0.1 x 0.1 spatial resolution (November 2011 January 2012), provided by JAXA, Japan NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 daily wind datasets, T62 Gaussian grid (November 2011 January 2012), provided by NOAA, USA. Wheeler and Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (October December 2011), provided by BOM, Australia. 2. LOCAL SCALE DATA Padang X-band Doppler Radar (MIA-XDR) datasets, with 500m x 500m spatial resolution, 10-minutes updated (November 2011 January 2012) Rawinsonde and other in-situ observations (AWS, ARG etc.) in the period of November 2011 January 2012

8 RESULTS 1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP) 2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar) Data sets : GSMaP NRT, 0.1 x 0.1 res, hourly NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 Surface Wind, daily

9 ISVS DURING HARIMAU IOP 2011 (GSMAP NRT, 5N-5S AVERAGE, 30 NOV JAN 2012) MIA-XDR HARIMAU IOP 2011 MJO1 December 1 st 10 th 2011 BREAK PHASE December 11 th 19 th 2011 MJO2 December 20 th 31 st 2011 MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2

10 REGIONAL RAINFALL AVERAGE DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND) + MJO 1 + BREAK PHASE Dec MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2 MJO 2 + mean=11.56 mm/day

11 REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT ) [Evening Rain (12-23LT) Morning Rain (00-11LT)] + MJO 1 BREAK PHASE Dec 2011 MJO 2 Morning Maxima Evening Maxima +

12 RESULTS 1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP) 2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar) Data sets : X-band Doppler Radar, 500m x 500m res, 10 minutes Rawinsonde and Insitu observations (AWS, ARG etc.), 1 minutes

13 ECHO EVOLUTION AND DISTRIBUTION (DECEMBER 1 31, 2011) MIA- XDR, CAPPI 2km Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island

14 DIURNAL AND PERIODIC VARIATION SEA + SUMATERA ISLAND LAND MIA-XDR AREA AVERAGE OF REFLECTIVITY (DECEMBER 1 31, 2011) MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2 MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2 SEA REGION LAND REGION

15 DIURNAL VARIATION AND PROPAGATION SEA LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND SUMATERA ISLAND SEA + LAND MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2

16 AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION AND PROPAGATION SEA MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2 LAND SEA LAND SEA LAND MORNING EVENING MORNING EVENING MORNING EVENING MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2 Moderate NW Strong W Weak SW, S Moderate W, SW Strong W, NW Weak SW, S

17 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS Rainfall Distribution Diurnal Variation MJO Periods Mostly occurred over the sea region than over the island Maximum signal over the sea region Diurnal cycle near the coastline is suppressed Break Phase More prominent over the coastal and inland region Maximum signal near the coastline Diurnal cycle near the coastline is prominent MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2

18 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS Did tropical waves with shorter period than MJO also played important role to the dynamics of DC during IOP 2011? Tropical waves during IOP2011 : MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO, Kelvin Wave Eq. Rossby Wave MJO 2 MJO, Kelvin, Eq. Rossby Wave Tropical wave analysis by Carl Schreck NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

20 SUPPLEMENTAL RESULTS

21 OLR ANOMALIES

22 Near surface wind variations with the MJO passages (by Dr. Hamada) MJO 1 WEAK MJO MJO 2

23 ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, 1 31 DEC 2011)

24 ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, MJO 1, 1 10 DEC 2011)

25 ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, WEAK MJO, DEC 2011)

26 ECHO DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION (XDR, MJO 2, DEC 2011)

27 DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL (MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, SEA REGION) MJO 1 [01-10 DEC] Weak MJO [11-19DEC] MJO 2 [20-31DEC] All Period [01-31DEC]

28 DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL (MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, LAND REGION) MJO 1 [01-10DEC] Weak MJO [11-19DEC] MJO 2 [20-31DEC] All Period [01-31DEC]

29 AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (1 DEC 31 DEC 2011) Sea Land Morning Afternoon

30 AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (MJO 1, 1 10 DEC 2011) Sea Land Maximum rainfall in the morning Morning DC is supressed By MJO? Afternoon Maximum rainfall over coastline

31 AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (WEAK MJO, 11 DEC 19 DEC 2011) Sea Land Maximum rainfall at midnight Morning DC is prominent Afternoon Maximum rainfall offshore

32 AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION (MJO 2, 20 DEC 31 DEC 2011) Sea Land Maximum rainfall in the late evening Morning Eastward PPD in the late evening? Orographic rain In the afternoon? DC is supressed By MJO? Afternoon Maximum rainfall near mountains

33 VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 1, 1 10 DEC 2011)

34 VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (WEAK MJO, DEC 2011)

35 VERTICAL PROFILE OF REFLECTIVITY (MJO 2, DEC 2011)

36 WH MJO INDEX (1 OCT 31 DEC 2011) 2 MJO _ Amplitude = RMM1 + RMM 2 2 Amplitude 1 Strong MJO Period Active (In Phase) Amplitude < 1 Inactive (Out of Phase) Weak MJO Period Active MJO (Phase 4) during IOP 2011 : 1 5 Dec & Dec (10 days) Weak MJO during IOP 2011 : Dec (9 days) Inactive MJO (Phase 5) during IOP 2011 : 6 10 Dec & Dec (12 days) Wheeler and Hendon, 2004 CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology

37 REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND) Active MJO Weak MJO Inactive MJO HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01-31 Dec 2011)

38 REGIONAL AREA AVERAGE OF DAILY RAINFALL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND) Active MJO ACT INACT WEAK ACT INACT Weak MJO mm/day Inactive MJO mean=11.56 mm/day HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01-31 Dec 2011)

39 Active MJO REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT) [Evening Rain (12-23LT) Morning Rain (00-11LT)] Weak MJO Inactive MJO Morning Maxima HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01-31 Dec 2011) Afternoon Maxima

40 REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL STANDARD DEVIATION DURING IOP2011 (GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND) Active MJO, Dec Weak MJO, Dec Active MJO, Dec HARIMAU IOP 2011 (01-31 Dec 2011)

41 ECHO COVERAGE (NO DBZ THRESHOLD) SEA MJO 1 Weak MJO 2 LAND

42 REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (NO DBZ THRESHOLD) SEA MJO 1 Weak MJO 2 LAND

43 REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (1 DEC 10 DEC)

44 REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (11 DEC 20 DEC)

45 REFLECTIVITY AVERAGE (21 DEC 30 DEC)

46 Wind Rose Plot of Muara Putus Station 1 31 December 2011

47 Wind Rose Plot of Tabing Station 1 31 December 2011

48 WIND ROSE PLOT MUARA PUTUS STATION 1 31 Dec 2011, LT (Daytime)

49 WIND ROSE PLOT MUARA PUTUS STATION 1 31 Dec 2011, LT (Nighttime)

50 WIND ROSE PLOT TABING STATION 1 31 Dec 2011, LT (Daytime)

51 WIND ROSE PLOT TABING STATION 1 31 Dec 2011, LT (Nighttime)

52 Windrose Plot of Tabing Station 27 Nov 2 Dec 3 Dec 10 Dec

53 Windrose Plot of Tabing Station 11 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec 30 Dec

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