Example for solutions: Elements of successful Preparedness. Use of climate information to support Early warning & Early action

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1 4th AFRICA DROUGHT ADAPTATION FORUM Nairobi, 13 14October 2011 Example for solutions: Elements of successful Preparedness Use of climate information to support Early warning & Early action Example of ACMAD IFRCC partnership by: RAZAFINDRAKOTO Léon Guy 1

2 Content 1. Brief on ACMAD 2. Use of Climate information to support Early Warning & Early action, example of ACMAD IFRCC partnership 3. Lesson learned 2

3 ACMAD: Brief on ACMAD 1. Brief on ACMAD VISION : Making Weather, Climate and Environment resources for Sustainable development ACMAD: Created in 1987 by the UN ECA & WMO Established in Niamey NIGER since 1992 Its mandate covers the 53 African States Run by a team of experts representing all sub regions 3

4 ACMAD: objectives & missions Objectives & Missions 1. Enhance African countries / SNMHs capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of weather and climate fluctuations to support the achievement of sustainable development and poverty reduction 2. Provide advanced notice on potential weather and climate related hazards and information for the implementation of policies for vulnerability reduction and adaptation to climate variability and change 3. Improve forecasts and provide user oriented information & products 4. Consolidate weather / climate monitoring efforts in Africa better understand the African weather systems (monsoon) 5. Facilitate exchange of information, experience and expertise; and strength sustainable institutional mechanisms 4

5 ACMAD: Partners Clients & Users Partners Clients Users National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMHSs Agriculturalists, hydrologists, medical doctors, engineers, transporters, insurance, disaster managers, planers UNECA,AUC, WMO, African subregional economic grouping: SADC, ECOWAS,IGAD CEMAC, ECCAS, EAC UMA, ASECNA, CENSAD UN International Institutions and NGOs: UNDP, UNEP, WHO, WFP, UNISDR, FAO IFRCC, OCHA Financial Support: Member Countries, AfDB,WMO, AEMET, USAID, IDRC, EU/FP, EUMETSAT, IRI, FFEM, IRD, CGIAR, Scientific & Technical Support: WMO, AEMET, Météo France, UKMO, NOAA, ECMWF, CIMMS, EUMETSAT, IRI, ICRISAT, Hadley Center, FFEM, CRDI, IRD, CIIFEN, AMMA, RIPIECSA, Universiites, 5

6 ACMAD IFRCC: EWS 2. Use of weather and climate information to support early warning and early action Example of Partnership ACMAD IFRCC On 23rd March 2009, in Dakar, ACMAD and IFRCC signed a partnership agreement in which ACMAD engaged to provide Climate information at different timescales covering West and Central Africa to IFRCC. The ultimate goal is to achieve an integration of climate information provided by ACMAD in the IFRCC planning intervention to develop early warning systems and to achieve systematic management of climate hazards in the region. During the rainy season, ACMAD produces and provides to the IFRCC the following bulletins: 6

7 2.2 Use of ACMAD products at different timescales Rainfall Seasonal forecast Seasonal product for decision makers, NMSs and end users Monthly Climate bulletin For multi-sectoral climate watching and NMSs (agriculture, health, WRM..) Valid Time scenario seasonal monthly decadal weekly daily nowcasting Flood risk Early warning product for decision makers & end users Expert analysis & synthetic forecast Technical product for NMSs 7

8 Practical actions : Monitoring and predicting All time scales are concerned: ACMAD Long range & seasonal forecast Medium range forecast EWS DRR strategy, Get set! Get ready Short range forecast and Nowcasting Go! (for life saving and impact reduction) 8

9 . Long range and Seasonal forecasts: ACMAD provides seasonal forecast in the form of probabilistic terciles for expected rainfall amounts for the season: above normal, normal, or below normal. What will likely the seasonal rainfall? How to have a longer lead time preparation as possible before the event occures? 9

10 Use of long range and seasonal forecast => GET SET! Review of contingency plans Identify areas at risk Food market analysis Identify appropriate staff (for drought- flood) and partners Replenish stocks Inform communities about enhanced risk and what to do if the risk materializes... 10

11 Monthly decadal and weekly bulletins for monitoring Monitoring of observation and anomalies during the previous month, dekade, week, and outlook for the next month, dekade, week 11

12 Use of monthly to weekly monitoring and predicting : GET READY! Closely monitor rainfall records. Follow up areas at risk Meet with other response agencies to enable better coordination, Alert volunteers and communities (IFRCC) Sensitise population and put in place community based join decision making process (EWS) 12

13 Short range forecast : a tailored user product Flood risk for the next 72 hours In three categories: low, medium, and high risk 13

14 Use of short range forecast 24H to NOWCASTING : GO! Mobilization of resources, Get warning and instruction out to communities at risk Contingency Plan application Information gathering Prepare evacuation 14

15 a tailored user product After IFRCC s recommandation, from one text to a graphical form, easier to read, 15

16 Dissemination and Communication Flow Chart warning Regional IFRCC Internet: e mail National level Communities at risk local communication 16

17 3. Lesson learned This example shows how the partnership ACMAD IFRCC can help to reduce the vulnerability of populations subject toclimate hazards. Coordination between national institutions, NGOs and UN agencies can be greatly enhanced by the inclusion of climate information from scientific institutions such as ACMAD through tailored user products A rapid onset and very localized hazard such as flooding needs a continous monitoring and forecasting at local scale. A monitoring system from local communities is needed to complete the EWS A multi disciplinary monitoring ( hydrology, environement and socioeconomic information) is needed. 17

18 Thank you 18