The prognostic deep convection parametrization for operational forecast in horizontal resolutions of 8, 4 and 2 km
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1 The prognostic deep convection parametrization for operational forecast in horizontal resolutions of 8, 4 and 2 km Martina Tudor, Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan and Antonio Stanešić tudor@cirus.dhz.hr Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service Terme Jezerčica, 3-4 Nov 2014
2 Outline - Deep convection parametrization in NWP model ALADIN/ALARO Parameterized processes, mass flux, interaction with resolved precipitation and turbulence - Prognostic convective scheme 3MT (Modular Multiscale Microphysics and Transport) - Impact on precipitation forecast Isolated convective cells Persistent heavy rain with severe floods
3 Convection in ALADIN Shallow convection contribution computed as the modification in the turbulence Deep convection develops due to moisture convergence and surface evaporation and produces precipitaiton, cloudines etc. Moisture convergence, local static stability and surface evaporation feed convection that in turn redistributes heat, moisture and momentum in the vertical. Only sub-grid precipitating clouds are parametrized.
4 Parametrized processes Active elements are updraft and downdraft detrainment Cloud entrains air from the environment and detrains into the environment Updraft grows due to moisture convergence and evaporation of soil. subsidence Cold air increases pressure close to surface and initiates wind gusts Large scale convergence dowdraft Evaporation of precipitation cools the environment and initiates downdraft. entrainment Large scale convergence ev Su ap rfa or ce at io n updraft Upper portion of cloud consists of cloud ice and lower portion of cloud water drops.
5 Mass flux Weather in a grid point represents and ensemble of weather on an area and in a layer of an atmosphere (volume). ensemble mass flux approach uses one equivalent cloud. Convective flux contains contributions from updraft (u), downdraft (d) and the environment (e). Mass flux in an updraft where σu is updraft mesh fraction and ωu is vertical velocity in an updraft (Pa/s) Mass flux in a downdraft where σd is downdraft mesh fractionand ωd is vertical velocity in a downdraft (Pa/s)
6 Turbulence and resolved precipitation With increasing resolution, more precipitation is resolved and less needs to be parametrized. Turbulence and resolved precipitation redistribute moisture and contribute to moisture convergence. Jq Pls Large scale convergence Large scale convergence Jq Pls
7 Diagnostic vs. prognostic scheme Diagnostic scheme assumes stationary state with balance of buoyancy and dissipation and that updraft and downdraft occupy a negliglible portion of grid cell. There is no memory from previous time-step. Prognostic scheme uses prognostic equations for convective variables that allow evolution of convection through time-steps and proper parametrization of growing and dissipating clouds. Updraft and downdraft mesh fractions are not neglected.
8 Prognostic deep convection qv water vapour detrainment qi cloud ice ql cloud liquid water qs snow subsidence updraft qr rain σu updraft mesh fraction σd downdraft mesh frac ωd downdraft vert vel. E entrainment Cc conv. cloud Large scale convergence dowdraft ωu updraft vert velocity entrainment Large scale convergence ev Su ap rfa or c e at io n
9 Small scale convective cells radar reflectivity for 1st May 2014
10 Small scale convective cells radar reflectivity for 1st May 2014
11 Small scale convective cells radar reflectivity for 1st May 2014
12 Small scale convective cells radar reflectivity for 1st May 2014
13 Small scale convective cells radar reflectivity for 1st May 2014
14 Operational forecast, 8km res, HY, diagnostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
15 Operational forecast, 2km res, NH, prognostic convection (part) Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
16 AL38t1, 8km res, HY, prognostic convection Oper (diag conv) Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
17 AL38t1, 4km res, HY, prognostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
18 AL38T1, 2km res, NH, prognostic convection Operational 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
19 Operational forecast, 8km res, HY, diagnostic convection Heavy flash flood case Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
20 Operational forecast, 2km res, NH, prognostic convection (part) Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
21 8km Total 24h precipitation fcst Resolved precipitation Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation Convective precipitation 4km Total 24h precipitation fcst 2km Total 24h precipitation fcst
22 Summary Parametrization of deep convection in NWP model computes contribution of unresolved deep convective clouds to the evolution of resolved model fields and convective precipitation. Prognostic deep convection scheme uses 6 new forecast fields to introduce memory in convective processes. Increase in resolution moves rain from convective to resolved but very slowly.
23 AL38t1 forecast, 4km res, NH, prognostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
24 Sub-grid deep convection Convective clouds are a source of heat and remove moisture from the atmosphere Convective mass flux redistributes momentum, temperature and moisture along the vertical. Convective precipitation (unsaturated grid-point) Resolved precipitation (saturated grid-point) front Cold air Only sub-grid precipitating clouds are parametrized
25 Convective precipitation Total precipitation 3h (below), resolved (right) and unresolved convective (lower right) associated to a cold front.
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28 Convective precipitation Parametrization of deep convection computed precipitation that is added to the resolved precipitation and plotted on a map as total precipitation and lated validated against (in situ) measurements. But, it should be taken as subgrid variability in precipitation added to the resolved precipitation. 1mm/3h 10mm/3h 100mm/3h
29 AL38T1, 8km res, HY, prognostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
30 AL38T1, 4km res, HY, prognostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
31 AL38T1, 2km res, NH, prognostic convection Measured 24h precipitation Accumulated 24h precipitation fcst Convective precipitation Resolved precipitation
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