Sub-grid parametrization in the ECMWF model
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1 Sub-grid parametrization in the ECMWF model Anton Beljaars Thanks to: Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Richard Forbes, Thomas Haiden, Marta Janiskova and Irina Sandu WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 1 1
2 NWP environment is highly suitable for parametrization development SSIMS 37v first guess departure Control First guess departures SSMIS 37v (channel 16) All sky radiances Example: Southern Hemisphere 12 UTC 19 Jul 2013 Reduced errors in frontal regions with reduced liquid water path 40r3 K Total Column Liquid Water 40r3 -Control WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 2 g m -2
3 Overview 1. General progress in parametrization 2. Examples of uncertainty in parametrization: Convection Boundary layer + sub-grid orography 3. Towards higher resolution WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 3
4 Day that Anom. Corr. 500 hpa reaches 80% (N. Hem. Extra-tropics) High Resolution operational system from 1994 to month running average WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 4
5 Day that Anom. Corr. 500 hpa reaches 80% (N. Hem. Extratropics) Difference between HighRes and ERA-Interim 12-month running average WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 5
6 25r4 (14/01/2003): Revised 4DVAR algorithm and Jb Revised cloud numerics and physics Multilevel convection initiation 36r 4(09/11/2010): 5 species prognostic cloud scheme Refinement of all sky radiance assim. Convection entrainment change SEKF for SM and OI for snow analysis 31r1=(12/09/2006): Ice microphys + ice supersat Turb. Orographic Form Drag VarBC 40r1 (22/11/2013): Diurnal cycle convection Reduced BL diffusion Optimized subgrid orogr 32r3 (6/11/2007): Convection dependent on Env. q Reduction of vertical diffusion Soil hydrology (HTESSEL) Use of AMSR E, TMI and SSMIS rad. WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 6
7 SEEPS extratropical Precipitation score base on SYNOP observations Day that 1-SEEPS reaches 0.45 (Global) High Resolution operational system from 1994 to month running average WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 7
8 SEEPS Precipitation score: Difference between HighRes and ERA-Interim 36r 4(09/11/2010): 5 species prognostic cloud scheme Refinement of all sky radiance assim. Convection entrainment change SEKF for SM and OI for snow analysis WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 8
9 The GCSS inter comparison of CRM s and SCM s showed that most parameterizations have too little sensitivity to environment moisture (Derbyshire et al. 2007) ECMWF SCM Met. Office CRM Moist CY23R3 changes to convection parameterization (introduced Nov 2007) : stronger entrainment, also dependent on q, and variable CAPE reduction time scale (Bechtold et al. 2008). WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 9
10 Model activity in T day forecasts Relative activity is model activity divided by activity in analysis Activity is standard deviation of anomaly from ERA-40 based climatology WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 10
11 Convection: Tropical variability, OLR spectra, MJO EC Analysis EC Seas Fc Cy40r1=2014 EC Seas Fc ERAI cycle=2006 Gain of 6 days in MJO forecasts in 2007/8. Average: 1-day/year since 2002 No Kelvin waves, and weak MJO before 2008 The Nov-2007 convection change improved TC s more than the resolution upgrade from T511 to T799 in Feb WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 11
12 In the ensemble prediction system the amplitude of the initial perturbations could be reduced by 30% WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 12
13 Convection: Diurnal cycle of Precipitation Phase (LST) for JJA Bechtold et al. (2014, JAS): Non-equilibrium closure and diurnal cycle TRMM Cy40r1 until November 2013 WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 13
14 Turbulence scheme Macro-meteorological range (weather) Micro-meteorological range (turbulence) 4-days 1-hour 5-min 1-min 5-sec Horizontal wind speed spectrum at Brookhaven at z=100m (van der Hoven, 1957) Should be non-controversial: Clear scale separation Solid scaling relation between fluxes and profiles Businger et al. (1971) WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 14
15 But in practise The atmosphere has a lot of meso scale variability, which is missing in the ECMWF model. Houchi et al. (2010) analyse a large volume of radio sonde data and conclude that the ECMWF model underestimates shear by a factor 2.5 This might be the background of long tail formulations, which makes the uncertainty large And how to handle the heterogeneous surface boundary condition? Houchi et al. (2010) Concepts are well established: Use effective roughness ( Mason, 1988); Grant and Mason, 1990; Wood and Mason, 1991) Turbulent Orographic Form Drag TOFD (Wood et al., 2001; Beljaars et al. 2004) The uncertainty in the coefficients that characterise the landscape and the sub grid orography is large Llanthony valley, S. Wales WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 15
16 Changes implemented in 40R1 building on Sandu et al., 2013 Turbulence closure for stable conditions: K M U Z ( R ), 1 l 1 kz 2, H l f M, H i 1 Up to 38R2 - long tails near surface, short tails above PBL From 40R1 - long tails everywhere - λ =150m - λ = 10% PBL height in stable boundary layers - non-resolved shear term, with a maximum at 850hPa - λ = 30 m in free shear layers + Increase in drag over orography Consequence: net reduction in diffusion in stable boundary layers, not much change in free-shear layers, except at 850 hpa WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 16
17 Impact of diffusion / sub-grid orography changes Reduction of wind direction bias over Europe by 3 in winter, 1 in summer (out of 10 ) Improvement in low level jets Improvement of the large-scale performance of the model in winter N Hemisphere Deterioration of tropical wind scores (against own analysis, not against observations!) WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 17
18 Predictive skill since cycle 40r1 January 2012, Z1000hPa 38R2 DIFF - CTL DIFF+GWD - CTL 38R2 + DIFF+GWD - Change to orographic drag affects planetary waves, anticyclones (e.g. too weak over EA) - The improvement in averaged NH scores mostly located over E. Asia, NA WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 18 I. Sandu; ECMWF Newsletter, 138
19 Sub grid orography Boundary layer WGNE/DRAG project (Ayrton Zadra) SO+BL Comparison of surface torque over land from different models for January 2012 WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 19
20 EC East west surface stress averaged over 6 hr interval of daily forecasts in January UTC UTC EC MO MO WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 20
21 Effect of orography resolution on 2T (T1279-T639) Cooling over 9 hrs with 50 W/m2 Hypothesis; with high resolution orography: Resolved gravity waves are stronger Local shear is increased Turbulent mixing is stronger Stable layers are deeper Near surface temperature is higher Weak mixing Strong mixing WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 21
22 Towards higher resolution Convection becomes partially resolved Non equilibrium closure (some progress but do we understand it?) Communication with neighbouring points (use of momentum equation with source term from mass residual of mass flux entrainment/detrainment is non trivial) 3D turbulence (LES to support CRM sub grid models) Shallow convection still needed (stratocumulus to cumulus transition still not well parametrized) Orography will be increasingly resolved Flow separation over steep orography (numerically non trivial) More resolved gravity waves (are they handled correctly by the numerics?) Is hand over from parametrized to resolved momentum fluxes correctly handled? (momentum budget studies that cover a range of resolutions) Meso scale variability, is it important? Are long tail stability functions necessary because of meso scale variability (Can high resolution simulations support a parametrization of meso scale variability?) How to characterize land surfaces for drag (can LES studies of canopy flow measure drag over heterogeneous terrain? ) WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 22
23 Conclusions Forecast errors show strong sensitive to the representation of clouds, convection and land surface drag. Still large uncertainty in many aspects of parametrization e.g. How does convection respond to moisture, surface fluxes, vertical motion and radiative forcing? How does surface drag relate to stability and land parameters? How does precipitation depend on vertical motion, radiation, convection? How does near surface temperature and humidity relate to vegetation, snow, clouds, soil moisture? Cloud schemes still need a lot of development: microphysics, sub grid variability, radiative effects, redistribution of latent heat in vertical, supercooled liquid water? High resolution modelling has enormous research potential, but is it focused on NWP and climate models? Momentum issues seem to be forgotten. There are more observations than ever, but do we use them? WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 23
24 Let s not forget the value of observations: Cloudsat radar reflectivity cross section compared to ECMWF model WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide 24
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