MOGREPS short-range ensemble forecasting and the PREVIEW Windstorms Project
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1 MOGREPS short-range ensemble forecasting and the PREVIEW Windstorms Project Ken Mylne Thanks to all those who have contributed to both projects. Crown copyright 2007 Page 1
2 Outline MOGREPS System outline Product examples Verification PREVIEW Windstorms The same! Crown copyright 2007 Page 2
3 MOGREPS The Met Office short-range ensemble 24-member ensemble designed for short-range forecasting Regional ensemble over N. Atlantic and Europe (NAE) (24km resolution, 38 levels) to T+54 Global ensemble (~90km resolution, 38 levels) to T+72 Also runs to 15 days at ECMWF for THORPEX ETKF for initial condition perts Stochastic physics Global run at 0Z and 12Z. Regional run at 6Z & 18Z NAE MOGREPS has successfully completed a 1-year Operational Trial. Planned to become operational by March Crown copyright 2007 Page 3
4 MOGREPS System diagram Global Analysis Global Hi-res forecast NAE Analysis NAE Hi-res forecast Global ETKF with localisation Global MOGREPS 15-day f/c (run at ECMWF) NAE ETKF Global MOGREPS Forecast Boundary conditions for NAE MOGREPS NAE MOGREPS Forecast MOGREPS Post-Processing System Chart Products Site-specific Database (FSSSI) Crown copyright 2007 Page 4
5 Example MOGREPS 33h Rainfall forecast Crown copyright 2007 Page 5
6 Products Probability charts Crown copyright 2007 Page 6
7 Products Probability charts Crown copyright 2007 Page 7
8 MOGREPS Site-specific forecasts Fan chart can mix MOGREPS and ECMWF data Kalman filter MOS is being implemented for MOGREPS forecasts Crown copyright 2007 Page 8
9 Hurricane Katrina Crown copyright 2007 Page 9
10 Cyclone database & New Year s Eve storm d Front Diminutive Frontal wave frontal wave Frontal wave cyclone Frontal fracture T-bone Mature cyclone Diminutive wave Barotropic low Interactive clickable maps allow the user to select a feature in the control analysis... Frontal wave Control analysis 0Z 30/12/06 Tracking scheme uses a combination of forward and backward tracking. It uses extrapolation and 500hPa Crown copyright 2007 Page 10 steering wind to estimate positions, and matches features based on separation distance, type and thickness
11 Cyclone database: 31/12/2006 example Clicking on a feature brings up feature-specific tracks from each ensemble member and matching plumes of intensity measures to identify the potential for high-impact weather MOGREPS-15 ECMWF-EPS This storm tracked across Scotland, with gusts up to 100mph, leading to the high-profile cancellation of New Year s Eve celebrations and loss of power to 1000s of homes UK Analysis 00Z 01/01/2007 Crown copyright 2007 Page 11
12 Cyclone database: Spaghetti plot of objective fronts The cyclone database objectively identifies fronts and cyclonic features in the extra-tropics Crown copyright 2007 Page 12
13 THORPEX Multimodel products: Probability plot Probability of mean sea level pressure > 1020hPa (with contours from the ensemble mean) T+204 PMSL > 1020 hpa Crown copyright 2007 Page 13
14 Storm surge Ensemble contract for EA Surge elevation Mean and spread Probability of Surge elevation > 1.0m Crown copyright 2007 Page 14
15 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Cromer (Norfolk) 12h ending 0600 (T+24) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 15
16 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Lowestoft 12h ending 0600 (T+24) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 16
17 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Felixstowe 12h ending 0600 (T+24) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 17
18 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Felixstowe 12h ending 1200 (T+30) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 18
19 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Sheerness (Thames Estuary) 12h ending 1200 (T+30) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 19
20 9 th Nov 2007 Biggest North Sea surge since 1953 Dover 12h ending 1200 (T+30) Probability of water level exceeding danger level Crown copyright 2007 Page 20
21 MOGREPS Verification Crown copyright 2007 Page 21
22 Reliability diagram for surface temperature Reliability diagram for Temp>10C 79 sites UK & Europe 6 Nov Feb 2007 Crown copyright 2007 Page 22
23 6hr precip > 0.3mm against gridded analysis Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 6h precip > 0.3mm Verification against Nimrod Analysis over the UK at 1.0 degree resolution. Crown copyright 2007 Page 23
24 6hr precip 5mm against gridded analysis Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 6h precip > 5mm Verification against Nimrod Analysis over the UK at 1.0 degree resolution. Crown copyright 2007 Page 24
25 6hr precip 25mm against gridded analysis Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 6h precip > 5mm Verification against Nimrod Analysis over the UK at 1.0 degree resolution. Crown copyright 2007 Page 25
26 Wind speed at least gale force 8 Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 10m Wind > F8 Verification against surface obs over UK and Europe. 1 Jan Feb 07 Crown copyright 2007 Page 26
27 Wind speed at least severe gale force 9 Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 10m Wind > F9 Verification against surface obs over UK and Europe. 1 Jan Feb 07 Crown copyright 2007 Page 27
28 Wind speed at least storm force 10 Reliability and sharpness diagram for T+36 forecast. 10m Wind > F10 Verification against surface obs over UK and Europe. 1 Jan Feb 07 Crown copyright 2007 Page 28
29 Spread-skill relationship wind speed 5 Spread-skill for windspeed binned into equal population bins by spread RMSE (ms -1 ) MOGREPS No Skill Perfect Spread Grad = 0.93 Grad = 0.59 Grad = 0.05 DJF Skill corrected for observation error Blue MOGREPS Pink No Skill Green Perfect RMSE (ms -1 ) Average Standard Deviation (ms -1 ) MOGREPS No Skill Grad = 0.98 Perfect Spread Grad = 0.60 JJA 1.0 Grad = Average Standard Deviation (ms -1 ) Crown copyright 2007 Page 29
30 EURORISK PREVIEW Windstorms Overview
31 Overview - Windstorms Windstorms cause a large percentage of the weather-related damage each year The windstorms service offers a regularly updated forecast of wind strengths and directions and puts it into context of wind storms events of the past 40 years. Visual overview of the chance of windstorms at sites across Europe using latest multi-model high resolution ensemble forecasts. Historical analysis gives users information on the strength and direction of previous windstorm events at each site. Crown copyright 2007 Page 31
32 Overview the plan Kalman Filter Ensemble Forecasts PEACE (MeteoFrance) SRNWP-PEPS (DWD) LAMEPS (Met.no) ECMWF EPS (ECMWF) MOGREPS ( Met Office UK) COSMO-LEPS Database (Met Office UK) Wind Gust Calculation (Meteo-France) Windstorm Forecast Products Windstorm Risk Mapping Products Hazard Mapping Data (SMHI) Website (Met Office UK) Crown copyright 2007 Page 32
33 Overview Ensembles Medium-Range Ensembles used for Days 3-5 (i) ECMWF EPS (ii) COSMO-LEPS Crown copyright 2007 Page 33
34 Overview Ensembles Short-Range Ensembles used for Days 1-2 (i) MOGREPS NAE (ii) MOGREPS Global (iii) PEACE (iv) LAMEPS (v) COSMO-LEPS (vi) SRNWP-PEPS Crown copyright 2007 Page 34
35 COSMO-LEPS 1-5 days ahead. run at ECMWF by ARPA-SIM Two versions of COSMO-LEPS The standard version 16-member ensemble 10km grid spacing over southern part of Europe. A second version is run specifically in support of Windstorms to cover the north-western part of Europe, only 10 members. Crown copyright 2007 Page 35
36 Overview Climate data Windstorms service includes an analysis of historical wind events from ERA-40 done by SMHI Spans (2006) Statistics and return periods estimated Limitations Extreme windspeeds underestimated due to resolution of ERA-40 Significant events missed due to 6-hour resolution Crown copyright 2007 Page 36
37 Web site Crown copyright 2007 Page 37
38 Web site Traffic lights Crown copyright 2007 Page 38
39 Web site - Meteograms Crown copyright 2007 Page 39
40 Web site wind roses Crown copyright 2007 Page 40
41 Web site Wind atlas Crown copyright 2007 Page 41
42 Web site Climate Wind roses Crown copyright 2007 Page 42
43 Verification Reliability Diagrams (DJF 0607) MOGREPS 15m/s PEACE 15m/s COSMO-LEPS 15m/s LAMEPS 15m/s MOGREPS 20m/s PEACE 20m/s COSMO-LEPS 20m/s LAMEPS 20m/s Crown copyright 2007 Page 43
44 Reliability of Combined Warnings 15m/s 20m/s Reliability for Day 1-2 forecasts Some overforecasting at higher probability thresholds Looks worse than individual ensembles, but this is for 2-day period, not a fixed time 20% at 20m/s threshold used for Red warning is reliable 40% at 15m/s used for Amber is also reasonable Crown copyright 2007 Page 44
45 Reliability of Combined Warnings Days m/s 20m/s Reliability for Day 3-5 forecasts Some overforecasting at higher probability thresholds Similar to day 1-2 forecasts 20% at 20m/s threshold used for Red warning is reliable 40% at 15m/s used for Amber is also reasonable Crown copyright 2007 Page 45
46 ROC for Combined Warnings Days 1-2 ROC for Day 1-2 forecasts Useful resolution in forecasts at both the Amber and Red threshold levels 15m/s 20m/s Crown copyright 2007 Page 46
47 ROC for Combined Warnings Days 3-5 ROC for Day 3-5 forecasts Useful resolution in forecasts at both the Amber and Red threshold levels 15m/s 20m/s Crown copyright 2007 Page 47
48 MOGREPS Neill Bowler Caroline Woolcock Sarah Beare Tim Legg Alberto Arribas Anette Van Der Wal Rob Darvell Kelvyn Robertson Helen Titley Christine Johnson Jonathan Flowerdew Marie Dando David Goddard & Ian Anderson and many others! Questions & Answers Acknowledgements Windstorms Caroline Woolcock Per Kallberg Pat Mackenzie & Marion Ricketts Andrea Montani Jean Nicolau Marit Jensen Michael Denhard Rob Darvell Graeme Loudon Leif Sandahl and many others! Username/password: Contact Crown copyright 2007 Page 48
49 Analysis Perturbations - Error Breeding ( - )*F T+12 perturbed forecast T+12 control forecast + = Control analysis Perturbed analysis Crown copyright 2007 Page 49
50 Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) 0.9 Pert Pert Pert Pert Pert 5 ( - ) + = ( - ) + = ( - ) + = ( - ) + = ( - ) + = T+12 perturbed forecast T+12 ensemble mean forecast Transform matrix Control analysis Perturbed analysis Crown copyright 2007 Page 50
Medium-range Ensemble Forecasts at the Met Office
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