NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project

Transcription

1 NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project a Joint Project of and TCP in WMO For ESAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members and Forecasters/Researchers over the Globe Tetsuo NAKAZAWA WMO/ including THORPEX 1

2 Cyclone XML (CXML) Homepage 2

3 Cyclone Name Example of TC CXML in ECMWF Data t=0 time lat lon Pressure Wind t=6 3

4 TIGGE CXML Data Accessibility Provider ftp site user id pw CMA MSC ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb.rwobus/tigge.beta/cxml/ anonymous KMA STI ftp.typhoon.gov.cn UKMO ftp.metoffice.gov.uk JMA ( NCEP ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb.rwobus/tigge.beta/cxml/ anonymous ECMWF 4

5 TIGGE CXML Data Availability Provider Analysis Deterministic Ensemble CMA 3 MSC 1 KMA 3 STI 1 UKMO 3 JMA NCEP 1 ECMWF Analysis at t=0 of Det. or Ens.? 2 All 3 data in a single file RSMC Tokyo delivers the deterministic data of BoM and DWD to Typhoon Committee Members 3 Available upon request (Courtesy 5 of E. Ebert)

6 Webpage ID, Password Protected 6

7 Data Available in the Web Site Ensemble vs Deterministic All Centers vs Each Center Track vs Strike Probability 3 different way of Strike Probability up to 4 days at each forecast hour (0-96 hrs) at pre-defined city Parsed text data from CXML data 78

8 Cyclone Name Overview Listed TCs are ofserved at the year of Year pulldown menu. If there are(were) TCs at the time of Time Selection Menu, gray charcters of the cyclone names and months will turn black. Red buttons are currently selected. Centers Button All Centers gives an image from every available forecasts. Each Center shows the images of the individual centers. First, Choose Year and Cyclone Name. Track Button Strike Probability Button Time Selection Menu Second, Choose Ensemble or Deterministic To show images of all available forecast tracks by lines with different colors in forecast hours. To show images of strike probabilities within 120 km in 4 days in three different representations. Pull down to choose time. Use slider(arrow) to change adjacent time. Third, Choose All Centers or Each Center Fourth, Choose Track or Strike Prob Then, Choose the time Data Display Area The images can be shown here, including nine TIGGE CXML data providers. Its name appears at the upper left corner in eachbox. 8 9

9 Ensemble Track Forecasts MEGI Case at 00UTC Oct Initial Ensemble Members Up to 4 days Initial hr hr hr < 24 hr BestTrack The Best Track includes up to 4 days after the initial to verify the forecast. JMA BestTrack 12 9

10 Strike Probability Forecast Within 120 km in 4 days Ensemble Members Up to 4 days Initial JMA BestTrack 10 13

11 All Centers and Each Center Images can be switched between All Centers and Each Center. All Centers Each Center Switch 11 10

12 Strike Probability at each time (0-96 hrs) 12 15

13 Strike Probability Time Series at Selected Cities Click city icon Enlarge Image Currently Selected Or click city name to get the time series at right. to get the time series at right. by clicking the box

14 Strike Probability Forecast Time Series at Selected Cities Ensemble Ensemble max. value 75% Deterministic Deterministic BestTrack median 25% Strike Prob. Strike Prob. min. value Box plot of Ensemble forecast 14 18

15 Number of Visitors 15

16 Init 00Z Aug31 TALAS NANMADOL 16

17 Future Directions Real-time TIGGE Data for TC Selected Parameters/Levels Surface Wind Speed Precipitation Regional Data, not Global 4 SWFDP Area - S. Africa, SW Pacific, SE Asia, E. Africa User Feedback Questionnaire to Forecasters in Typhoon Committe Member Countries in this fall For further improvement of the homepage Contribution to Other Regions to setup the homepage RSMC in New Dehli, India 17

18 Contribution to SWFDP SW. Pacific E. Africa SE. Asia S. Africa 18

19 Summary NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project as a joint project with and TCP in WMO for providing TC ensemble forecast information to ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members and also to interested Forecasters/Researchers over the Globe. The web site is now on operation, with id and password protected. I will give you the id and password if you are interested to visit the site. The project is for the track first, but will extend for intensity, such as precipitation, wind, etc. Next Step: TIGGE database for detecting potentials of high impact weather events