Web-Based Decision Support Tool

Transcription

1 Web-Based Decision Support Tool PAULA MCCASLIN AND KIRK HOLUB NOAA / GSD 5/11/11 NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

2 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory I. Background II. NOAA s Vision III. GSD Initiative IV. Impact V. Benefits VI. Demonstration

3 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Background Forecast uncertainty products are viewed as appropriate means to capture the range of potential weather events and impact scenarios Weather events can disrupt business, cause economic losses in areas of commerce, construction, agriculture, etc and disrupt recreational plans Proactive decisions and actions can protect assets, minimize recovery, reduce losses and increase safety

4 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory NOAA s Vision Informed people can make better social and economic decisions Predicting changes help people meet economic, social and environmental needs Application and use of NWS forecast uncertainty products need to be explored GSD initiative grant made development of prototype possible

5 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory GSD Initiative Exploratory web-based decision support tool Decision guidance based on individual requirements for a given activity, in weather sensitive situations Risk assessment interface, including economic (cost-loss) module Risk tolerance affects Yes/No decision guidance by associating (calibrated) forecast uncertainty and risk limits Results created on demand

6 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Impact In weather sensitive situations tool provides clear Yes/No decision guidance allowing user to meet risk-associated decision goals Identifies places and times for activities to occur by interrogating the users weather critical thresholds and risk tolerances

7 Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Benefits Usable anywhere Interactive Google Maps Interface Allows customization specific to each situation Interrogation module to assess the level of risk user is willing to accept Demonstrates possible use of NOAA's forecast uncertainty Web application was evaluated in a field experiment Fall 2010 with social scientist and a survey of 8 volunteers

8 Demonstration... Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations Paula McCaslin and Kirk Holub, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

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33 NOAA ESRL GSD Ensemble Tracker Data Products and Ideas

34 NOAA ESRL GSD Ensemble Tracker Products Internet and Google Maps at ruc.noaa.gov/track Plots experimental results ATCF tracker from Ensemble output FIM, GFS EnKF, TIGGE data: ECMWF, UKMO, CMC, NCEP, CMA, JMA Shows track location, track intensity (various ways) Additional TC parameters and products

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36 Multiple Ensemble Display - GFS ENKF (Green) - NCEP GFS (Red) - Shows GFS ENKF closer to the observed track

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38 NOAA ESRL GSD User Response: Beth Ebert Having a display that lets you plot the different ensembles on top of each other is really useful. This looks great. I've been plotting the multiple ensemble forecasts for Megi in the Western Pacific, and it's really nice to be able to line up all the ensembles that were available at the same time. The information markers are useful, too.

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43 NOAA ESRL GSD User Response: Beth Ebert One of the things I noticed when I was looking at Typhoon Megi (Oct 19 0Z) was the difference in the centers' forecasts - ECWMF had it continuing to move to the west while the others had it recurving toward the north and going over Taiwan. Looks like something in between would have been right...

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45 NOAA ESRL GSD User Interest: Beth Ebert Megi seems to be a particularly strong storm. Taiwan got battered yet again - on the news this [Oct 21] an oil tanker capsized of the NW coast of Taiwan and the crew had to be rescued. Apparently it was the strongest typhoon the Philippines has experienced in many years. Interesting that the EPS was going for more easterly tracks than the deterministic run.

46 NOAA ESRL GSD Collaboration and Plans Collaboration Collaboration with THORPEX WMO Bulletin EPS for improved forecasting; McCaslin, Swinbank, Nakazawa, Toth: Dec 2010 EPS displays presented at IWTC (International Workshop on TC) 2010 Web service for display of data on NOAA website ATCF text (ASCII) or CXML formatted files containing ensemble, deterministic, or observation data Upload files from any URL or FTP site via NOAA web server for display (and comparison) with other ATFC products Couple with data service capabilities being developed at storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfx Use of DIAPOST within Google Maps

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