Jim Fox. copyright UNC Asheville's NEMAC

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1 Decisions and System Thinking Jim Fox November,

2 UNC Asheville s s NEMAC National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center Applied Research and technology development on integration of environmental and climate data sets Data and GIS Visualization Decision Making Decision Support tools for Flood Mitigation, Emergency Response, Water Resource Issues, Vulnerability and Resilience Collaboration among government, academia and private enterprise Economic Development activities in the Western Carolina Region Active Undergraduate Research 2

3 Climate Literacy Education and Research (CLEaR) Grant Eastern Forests Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) Coop Agreement Renaissance Computing Institute State of North Carolina Local and State Government Mountain Resource Commission Companies Others 3

4 From Data to Decisions A four step business process Integration of Data Creating Visualizations Telling the Story Group Decision Making GIS Spatial Images Text Data Feeds Accurate and Current Science Multimedia Delivery Technologies Dynamic and Rapid Delivery Communications Education Narrative Serious Games Fits the Audience and Specific Need Listening Recording Scenarios Alternatives ti Uncertainty Supports the Decision Making Process 4

5 Overview Baseline changes in climate increases risk of severe weather impact Drought > fire from lightning Long periods of rain > big storm > flood Sea level rise > storm surge > flood Non climate issues add to sensitivity Pests killing trees Population and demographic changes Economic Issues Impact on decisions Whoaccepts responsibility and assigns resources? 5

6 Decision Making Building Blocks Data What do we know? Natural Human Built Economic 6

7 Decision Making Building Blocks Data What do we know? Natural Human Built Economic Values What do we care about? Linked to Decision Makers Proper Scale 7

8 Decision Making Building Blocks Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Linked to Decision Makers Proper Scale Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Uncertainties Models 8

9 Decision Making Building Blocks Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Linked to Decision Makers Proper Scale Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Uncertainties Models 9

10 Decision Making Building Blocks Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Linked to Decision Makers Proper Scale Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Uncertainties Models Who is we? Who is willing to accept responsibility and assign resources? 10

11 Scales of responsibility 1. Personal 2. Neighborhood/County 3. Regional connected by a shared service 4. National 5. Global 11

12 Climate and Climate Change Data and Models Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Linked to Decision Makers Proper Scale Natural Climate Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Uncertainties Models Climate Who is we? Who is willing to accept responsibility and assign resources? 12

13 Decision Portals, GIS Viewers, Drafted Map Suites, Facilitation in support of the NCA 13

14 National Climate Assessment Decision: Integrated solutions thatconsider factors including economic development, transportation, agriculture, etc. Scale: National Use of Climate Data: National and Regional climate impacts on key issues and sectors 14

15 Climate Assessment Conceptual Model of Linked Relationships Drought Wildfire Water Stress Water Shortage Homes in Wildland/Urban Interface Firefighter Safety Natural Systems Power Generation Municipal Water Supply Assessments lead to decisions: focus on resources and values lets end customer understand why climate matters 15

16 National scale, updated every eight days, change detection system 16

17 Website for Visualization and Story Telling Forest Health is Value Driver 17

18 ESRI Web Viewer, Powered by FLEX and ArcGIS Server 10 18

19 Multigraph tool (imbedded in GIS Viewer) allows users to see in the temporal dimension 19

20 Storytelling on the web to support the GIS Viewer 20

21 ForWarn Decisions Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Fuel Models for Fire Landscape scale Forest Health Issues Forest Health Climate Contributing Factors Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Climate Models Fire Models 21

22 A Quantitative Model BBN for Wildfire Version 1.2 D.Lee 8/14/12 22

23 Crosswalk of Data to Nodes 23

24 What makes the Southeast unique? Relatively warm Relatively wet Large percentage forested High mill production Urban and rural environments More mechanical treatment Large proportion of landscape in the WUI/intermix More prescribed fire Large proportion of homes in the WUI/intermix Twelve classes of vegetation Higher rate of intentional ignitions Seven classes of fuels Higher demographic stress Fires occurring in all environments Variable burn probability Variety of area burned More private land Variety of arrival times 24

25 National Fire Plan Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Resilient landscapes Resilient communities Firefighter and public safety Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Drought impact on fuels Lightning for ignition Heat linked to firefighter safety 25

26 North Carolina Mountain Resources Commission Vitality Index County Decision Makers needed some help we provided an online tool with 160 metrics 26

27 The home page of the website note the imbedded GIS Viewer 27

28 Decision makers at county and regional scale 28

29 Regionally specific products aided by storytelling turns a map into a tool 29

30 I 40 Landslide in 2010 Vulnerability is related ltdto mobility in the transportation sector Pinch points that disrupt a service Climate Change chapter for a Regional Transportation Plan 30

31 Western North Carolina Transportation Planning Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Vulnerability of lack of Mobility following a disaster Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Precipitation Winter Weather 31

32 3D Visualization adds another dimension to public understanding integrated ArcGlobe 32

33 33 Swannanoa Watershed

34 The Swannanoa River Watershed North Fork Reservoir Black Mountain Downtown Asheville Biltmore Village 34

35 Main Village Center Flooded photo courtesy of John Cram 35

36 Watershed mapped and displayed in full three dimensions 36

37 Companion website to allow full interaction with data and recommendations 37

38 Emergency Managers needed an integrated decision tool for FEMA reporting 38

39 Multi Hazard Risk Tool Purpose of study: Tool for Emergency Managers that integrates Decision: How to plan for multiple risks including flooding, wildfire, landslides, winter storms, dam failure, etc. Scale: Buncombe County Use of Climate Data: Drought, flooding, precipitation, winter storm occurrence 39

40 Tool tied to individual parcels integration with City of Asheville and Buncombe County GIS Databases 40

41 41

42 Tool tied to individual parcels integration with City of Asheville and Buncombe County GIS Databases 42

43 Summary reports available by area and hazard 43

44 Swannanoa Watershed Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Provide resiliency for natural and human systems Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Return period of 100 year storm 44

45 Sea Level Rise Impacts across all Sectors for Federal, State and County Decision Makers 45

46 Landcover Elevation Natural Systems Climate During the first phase of the study, regional differences were discussed and evaluated 46

47 Facilitation Maps are important, but facilitation leads to decision making in group settings 47

48 Actions within our control Contributing Factors (outside of our control) Processes related to threats or risks Things we value Decision framework used to integrate GIS data with Belief Nets (decision tools) 48

49 Dare County, NC SLR, SEF, Emergent Wetlands A belief net with the resulting map (NEMAC published the approach in ArcUser) 49

50 Albemarle Pamlico Link from Values, to Analysis, to Visualizations and then to Decision Making 50

51 Albemarle Pamlico Sea Level Rise Data What do we know? Values What do we care about? Provide resiliency for natural and human systems Natural Human Built Economic Future What could happen? Risk Action What are we willing to do about it? Sea Level Rise 51

52 Key Metrics for Decision Support Tools An online data viewer (by itself) is NOT a decision support tool Data must be accurate, current and scaled for the decision Visualizations make data meaningful and locally relevant Storytellingt by group facilitators t is critical for policy makers to understand uncertainty and follow a decision making process Group Decision Making is a continuing, iterative process that needs to be actively supported with appropriate technologies and toolsets Collaboration at o is key the ethree eesectors s of government, e academia and industry must work together to meet this challenge 52