Translating Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic User-Relevant Information
|
|
- Shavonne Bruce
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Translating Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic User-Relevant Information Matthias Steiner with contributions from Robert Sharman, Thomas Hopson, Yubao Liu, Mike Chapman, and Mary Hayden NUOPC User Workshop NOAA Sand Point Conference Center in Seattle, Washington Wednesday, 1 June 2011
2 Motivation Today s Paradigm: Human in the Loop Weather User Decision Maker Forecast Products Decision Support Tool tailored to user needs ready for integration Paradigm of Future: End-to-end Integration with Human over the Loop
3 Weather Translation & Integration Concept Focus of Talk Weather Information Weather Translation Impact Estimation Response Scenarios Weather analysis & forecast data Extraction of relevant information Placing into situational context Mitigation strategies Weather information provider Weather-impacted user Some examples: Airport operation Ceiling & visibility (flight categories) Reduced capacity (arrival rates) Ground delay programs Dam operation Precipitation & runoff (water level) Overflow or breaking, minimal discharge Controlled release of water Power plant operation Winds below/above critical thresholds Reduced power generation Balancing grid with other power sources
4 Translation Aviation Example Weather hazard Old way... New way... ensemble member #1 member #2 member #3 ensemble of weather information 2 lanes 2 lanes 2 lanes ensemble mean How many air lanes? ensemble of user-relevant information Most likely 2 air lanes...
5 Example #1: Aviation Capacity Prediction User: Air Traffic Planners Probability of losing fraction of capacity due to weather? Impacting weather reduces usable air space Extraction of capacity reduction based on each member of ensemble forecast Focus on storm hazard & its organization (permeability of pattern) Translation Observed traffic reduction compared to clear weather Predicted chance of 30% capacity loss in E-W direction 9 h ahead
6 Discharge 10^3 m^3 / s Example #2: Flood Prediction User: Emergency Managers Probability of overbank flow & flooding? Bangladesh has little upstream information for Brahmaputra & Ganges rivers Focus on amount of precipitation in neighboring countries Translation of ECMWF precipitation ensemble into probabilistic discharge, flow depth, overbank flow, inundated area, etc. 10 Day Forecasts Bankfull Observed Discharge 6/25 7/29 8/26 9/23 10/12
7 Example #3: Hurricane Track Prediction User: Emergency Managers Probability of landfall, need for evacuation, damage, etc.? Hurricanes can cause huge societal impacts Focus on storm track, timing, & intensity (both precipitation & wind) Translation of hurricane track, size & intensity ensemble into probabilistic evacuation area, storm surge, damage, disruption of services, economic impact, etc. Ensemble of Hurricane Tracks
8 Example #4: Noise Propagation Prediction Probability of significant noise impact to populated areas? Sound propagation models for test range neighborhood annoyance mitigation & avoiding window shattering are sensitive to atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature inversion & wind shear) Translation of spatial ensemble of model soundings into probabilistic sound propagation User: Test Range Operators Ensemble of Noise Propagation from a Detonation
9 Example #5: Pollution Dispersion Prediction Probability of concentration exceeding point threshold? Atmospheric diffusion models to predict concentration of smoke or chemical/biological agents require spatially & temporally varying wind, temperature, surface heat flux, & PBL depth forecasts Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic dispersion of pollutants User: Homeland Security Managers
10 Example #6: Missile Trajectory Prediction Probability of missile to hit designated area? Missile testing is sensitive to atmospheric conditions (e.g., winds) Translation of spatial ensemble of model soundings into probabilistic missile trajectories spatial ensemble of 23-h model wind forecast User: Test Range Operators no winds actual impact rawinsonde winds rawinsonde & tower winds
11 Turbine Nacelle wind speeds (m/s) Example #7: Wind Energy Prediction User: Power Plant Operators Probability of too little or too much wind, & ramp events? Managing power grids based on different energy sources is significant challenge, especially for wind & solar energy harvesting Wind-generated power is non-linear function of wind speed Translation of LES down-scaled (ensemble) forecasts into probabilistic wind speed & ramp events timing Ramp Event 13/00 13/06 13/12 13/18 14/00 14/06 14/12 14/18
12 Example #8: Winter Road Maintenance When to run plows & apply treatments? Effective winter road maintenance requires knowledge of weather (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, wind & precipitation), road surface information (temperature) & treatment (type, amount & location) Translation of (ensemble) weather, road conditions, & treatment instructions into probabilistic road plowing & chemical treatment applications User: Road Maintenance Operators
13 Example #9: Meningitis Epidemics in Sahel User: World Health Organizations When & where to administer vaccinations? Meningitis is endemic in Sahel, occurs February June (dry, dusty season) & ends abruptly with onset of monsoon season Epidemic in resulted in 250,000 [%] cases & 25,000 fatalities Probability of epidemic (10 cases per 100,000) depends strongly on relative humidity Decision support system for WHO based on with THORPEX TIGGE 1-14 day ensemble weather forecasts Probability [%] weather-conditioned risk unconditioned risk Predicted probability of epidemic to occur 3 weeks in advance (2 week incubation time) Relative humidity prediction across Meningitis Belt 1 week in advance Probability
14 Take Home Message Making forecasts most valuable to users requires... close collaboration between weather forecast providers & end users / decision makers understanding of information needs, but also communicate capabilities & limitations translation of weather into user-relevant information (extraction of relevant information from each ensemble member) integration of weather into user s decision making process (impact estimation & response scenarios utilizing decision support tools) calibration of probabilities & including some measure of confidence training for understanding & utilizing probabilistic forecasts development of trust in translated forecasts & decision support tools embracing change & possibly adjusting operational procedures For further details about projects see:
Characterization of Forecast Uncertainty by Means of Ensemble Techniques
Characterization of Forecast Uncertainty by Means of Ensemble Techniques Matthias Steiner National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA Email: msteiner@ucar.edu Short-Term Weather Forecasting
More informationHazard Impact Modelling for Storms Workshop
The UK s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazards advice Hazard Impact Modelling for Storms Workshop Ken Mylne, Becky Hemingway, Ervin Zsoter ECMWF UEF 2017, 15 th June 2017 The UK s trusted voice
More informationNCAR UCAR. 50 th Anniversary Lecture
NCAR & UCAR 50 th Anniversary Lecture Turbulence, Wind Shear, Toxin Attacks, and Other Things That Go Bump In the Night: Applied Research for Real-Life Problems Bill Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric
More informationHow advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University
How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University Overview of current short term rainfall forecasting Advancements and on going research
More informationSeamless weather and climate for security planning
Seamless weather and climate for security planning Kirsty Lewis, Principal Climate Change Consultant, Met Office Hadley Centre 28 June 2010 Global Climate Models Mitigation timescale changes could be avoided
More informationUnderstanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017
Understanding Weather and Climate Risk Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 What is risk in a weather and climate context? Hazard: something with the
More informationEnhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts. An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 12 May 2008) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 Summary This
More informationBuilding a Weather Ready Nation: Linking Impact Based Decision Support Services to Observations, Forecasts, Warnings & Dissemination
Building a Weather Ready Nation: Linking Impact Based Decision Support Services to Observations, Forecasts, Warnings & Dissemination Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather
More informationFuture Aeronautical Meteorology Research & Development
Future Aeronautical Meteorology Research & Development Matthias Steiner National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder, Colorado, USA msteiner@ucar.edu WMO Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific
More informationDeep Thunder. Local Area Precision Forecasting for Weather-Sensitive Business Operations (e.g. Electric Utility)
1 Deep Thunder Local Area Precision Forecasting for Weather-Sensitive Business Operations (e.g. Electric Utility) Dipl. Ing. Helmut Ludwar Chief Technologist Wien, im Oktober 2010 Forecasts for Weather-Sensitive
More informationRCOF Review [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report
RCOF Review 2017 [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report Specific Climate features of concerned region This region typically covers the area below
More informationClimate Change Impacts in Alaska: the Weather Perspective
Climate Change Impacts in Alaska: the Weather Perspective September 18, 2007 NOAA s National Weather Service, Alaska Region James Partain, Chief Environmental and Scientific Services Division NOAA NWS
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK VALID FOR JULY-AUGUST- SEPTEMBER 2013 IN WEST AFRICA, CHAD AND CAMEROON
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK VALID FOR JULY-AUGUST- SEPTEMBER 2013 IN WEST AFRICA, CHAD AND CAMEROON May 29, 2013 ABUJA-Federal Republic of Nigeria 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Given the current Sea Surface and sub-surface
More informationProbabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge A Local Perspective
Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge A Local Perspective Florida Governor Hurricane Conference May 11-16 2014 2014 FLGHC TS 22 Pablo Santos Meteorologist In Charge NWS Miami/South Florida Forecast Office
More informationWeather Impact Modeling. Based on Joe Mitchell s slides
Weather Impact Modeling Based on Joe Mitchell s slides Old Paradigm: Human Centric Weather Aviation traffic manager Forecast Products ATM Automation tailored to aviation needs ready for integration New
More informationMiami-Dade County Overview
Miami-Dade County Overview 2,000 square miles World s busiest cruise port 2.6 million residents Second busiest US airport for international travelers Gateway to the Caribbean and Latin America Natural
More informationPlanning for the Threat Preparing for the Impacts The Role of the Local Forecast
Planning for the Threat Preparing for the Impacts The Role of the Local Forecast 2014 Florida Governor Hurricane Conference Pablo Santos NOAA/NWS WFO Miami, FL 2014 - FLGHC 2014 - FLGHC Decision Support
More informationOverall point: knowledge of Rela4ve Humidity 2weeks ago improves predic4on
Overall point: knowledge of Rela4ve Humidity 2weeks ago improves predic4on Knowing the RH two weeks ago improves accuracy in predic8ng an epidemic by ~25% 1 Coupled with a two week forecast, this indicates
More informationNOAA s Regional Climate Science & Information: Opportunities and Challenges
NOAA s Regional Climate Science & Information: Opportunities and Challenges Dr. Wayne Higgins Climate Program Office, Director Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationUse of Geospatial data for disaster managements
Use of Geospatial data for disaster managements Source: http://alertsystemsgroup.com Instructor : Professor Dr. Yuji Murayama Teaching Assistant : Manjula Ranagalage What is GIS? A powerful set of tools
More informationProbabilistic weather hazard forecast guidance for transoceanic flights based on merged global ensemble forecasts
Probabilistic weather hazard forecast guidance for transoceanic flights based on merged global ensemble forecasts Matthias Steiner National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA msteiner@ucar.edu
More informationCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION BY MEANS OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO ESTABLISH EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION BY MEANS OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO ESTABLISH EARLY WARNING SYSTEM By: Dr Mamadou Lamine BAH, National Director Direction Nationale de la Meteorologie (DNM), Guinea President,
More informationOBJECTIVE CALIBRATED WIND SPEED AND CROSSWIND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR THE HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
P 333 OBJECTIVE CALIBRATED WIND SPEED AND CROSSWIND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR THE HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT P. Cheung, C. C. Lam* Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China 1. INTRODUCTION Wind is
More informationOn downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications
On downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications V. Moron,* A. W. Robertson * J.H. Qian * CEREGE, Université Aix-Marseille, France * IRI, Columbia University, USA WCRP Workshop on Seasonal
More informationThe UK National Severe Weather Warning Service - Guidance Unit Perspective
The UK National Severe Weather Warning Service - Guidance Unit Perspective Dan Suri, Chief Operational Meteorologist ECMWF User Workshop June 2015 Contents Who are the Guidance Unit? The National Severe
More informationCERA-Atlantic Storm Surge Web Page: Improvements for 2013 Based on EM Feedback
CERA-Atlantic Storm Surge Web Page: Improvements for 2013 Based on EM Feedback Jessica Losego Meteorologist University of North Carolina - Institute for the Environment Rick Luettich Director, UNC IMS
More informationWeather Analysis and Forecasting
Weather Analysis and Forecasting An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 25 March 2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 This Information Statement describes
More informationWeather forecasts and warnings: Support for Impact based decision making
Weather forecasts and warnings: Support for Impact based decision making Gerry Murphy, Met Éireann www.met.ie An Era of Change Climate and weather is changing Societal vulnerability is increasing The nature
More informationWeather Vision: Past, Present, Future. Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) Weather Integrated Product Team
Weather Vision: Past, Present, Future Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) Weather Integrated Product Team 1 20 Years Ago: Aviation Weather Forecasting Task Force FAA Funded Originally looked out
More informationConceptual Modelling within The OGC MetOcean Domain Working Group
Conceptual Modelling within The OGC MetOcean Domain Working Group 21 st EGOWS Mtg, 1 st -4 th June 2010, ECMWF Dominic Lowe, dominiclowe@stfc.ac.uk British Atmospheric Data Centre, http://badc.nerc.ac.uk
More informationHurricane Matthew. National Weather Service Wilmington NC. Steven Pfaff, WCM.
Hurricane Matthew Threat Assessment for northeast South Carolina & southeast North Carolina National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 AM EDT Tuesday October 4, 2016 Steven Pfaff, WCM Steven.Pfaff@noaa.gov
More informationComparative Analysis of Hurricane Vulnerability in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Dr. Marc Levitan LSU Hurricane Center. April 2003
Comparative Analysis of Hurricane Vulnerability in New Orleans and Baton Rouge Dr. Marc Levitan LSU Hurricane Center April 2003 In order to compare hurricane vulnerability of facilities located in different
More informationActive Weather Threat Halloween Week Nor easter October 28 th 31 st 2012
Active Weather Threat Halloween Week Nor easter October 28 th 31 st 2012 Prepared 1130 AM EDT Wednesday, October 24, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi Purpose of Briefing Briefing
More informationLessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma
EOL Visit to NSF 3 March 2016 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Harvey and Irma Wen-Chau Lee National Center for Atmospheric Research 23 November 2017 Outline: Meteorological elements of the active 2017 Atlantic
More informationFrank Revitte National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge
Frank Revitte National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge Above normal activity 17 Total Named Storms 7 Tropical Storms 4 Hurricanes 6 Major Hurricanes Not the most active,
More informationHurricane Readiness for Coastal Communities
Hurricane Readiness for Participant Guide Developed for: Federal Emergency Management Agency Emergency Management Institute 16825 South Seton Avenue Emmitsburg, MD 21727-8998 Developed by: C² Technologies,
More information12.2 PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR TRANSOCEANIC FLIGHTS
12.2 PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR TRANSOCEANIC FLIGHTS K. A. Stone, M. Steiner, J. O. Pinto, C. P. Kalb, C. J. Kessinger NCAR, Boulder, CO M. Strahan Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City,
More informationIntroduction to Meteorology and Weather Forecasting
Introduction to Meteorology and Weather Forecasting ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1 2 040909 ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1 3 040914 ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting
More informationMTO s Road Weather Information System (RWIS)
MTO s Road Weather Information System (RWIS) Ontario Good Roads Association Managing Winter Operations Workshop October 19, 2017 Overview of MTO s Road Weather Information Station (RWIS) RWIS for Winter
More informationHurricane Season 2018
Hurricane Season 2018 Mission Protect LIFE and Property (Save Lives and Livelihoods) NOAA/ National Weather Service We are NOT a 9-to-5 agency. We operate 24/7/365 serving communities. We are available
More informationVerification and performance measures of Meteorological Services to Air Traffic Management (MSTA)
Verification and performance measures of Meteorological Services to Air Traffic Management (MSTA) Background Information on the accuracy, reliability and relevance of products is provided in terms of verification
More informationClimate Risk Visualization for Adaptation Planning and Emergency Response
Climate Risk Visualization for Adaptation Planning and Emergency Response NCR Flood Fact Finding Workshop Ricardo Saavedra ricardo@vizonomy.com Social Media, Mobile, and Big Data St. Peter s Basilica,
More informationImproving global coastal inundation forecasting WMO Panel, UR2014, London, 2 July 2014
Improving global coastal inundation forecasting WMO Panel, UR2014, London, 2 July 2014 Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 Hurricane Katrina, 2005 Prof. Kevin Horsburgh Head of marine physics, UK National Oceanography
More informationProbabilistic Winter Weather Nowcasting supporting Total Airport Management
Probabilistic Winter Weather Nowcasting supporting Total Airport Management Jaakko Nuottokari* Finnish Meteorological Institute *With Heikki Juntti, Elena Saltikoff, Harri Hohti, Seppo Pulkkinen, Alberto
More informationAssessing Hazards and Risk
Page 1 of 6 EENS 204 Tulane University Natural Disasters Prof. Stephen A. Nelson Assessing Hazards and Risk This page last updated on 07-Jan-2004 As discussed before, natural disasters are produced by
More informationTropical Revolving Storms: Cuba 2008 By The British Geographer
Place Context Tropical Revolving Storms: Cuba 2008 By The British Geographer The Republic of Cuba is located in the northern tropics with in island chain of the Caribbean. It is made up of one large Island,
More informationWMO Welcome Statement
WMO Welcome Statement at the Opening of the WMO Symposium on Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast (Hong Kong, China, 25-29 July 2016) On behalf of Professor Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the
More informationUse of radar to detect weather
2 April 2007 Welcome to the RAP Advisory Panel Meeting Use of radar to detect weather G. Brant Foote Brant Director Foote Rita Roberts Roelof Bruintjes Research Applications Program Radar principles Radio
More informationCURRENT AND FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE RISK IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CURRENT AND FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE RISK IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: SAMOA JUNE 2013 Samoa has been affected by devastating cyclones on multiple occasions, e.g. tropical cyclones Ofa and
More informationComplete Weather Intelligence for Public Safety from DTN
Complete Weather Intelligence for Public Safety from DTN September 2017 White Paper www.dtn.com / 1.800.610.0777 From flooding to tornados to severe winter storms, the threats to public safety from weather-related
More informationAt the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer.
Operational hydrometeorological forecasting activities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thomas Pagano At the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer. http://scottbridle.com/
More informationWorld Weather Research Program: a ten years vision. PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec Jeju
World Weather Research Program: a ten years vision PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec 014 - Jeju An overarching question Disaster risk reduction Climate services How should we move from weather
More informationHazardous Weather and Flooding Preparedness. Hazardous Weather and Flooding Preparedness
Hazardous Weather and Flooding Preparedness 1 A Cooperative Effort 2 Administrative Information Emergency exits and procedures Location of restrooms Mobile devices Procedure for questions Course materials
More informationShort-Term Weather Forecasting for Probabilistic Wake-Vortex Prediction
Short-Term Weather Forecasting for Probabilistic Wake-Vortex Prediction Frank Holzäpfel Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Summary
More informationImproving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services July 13, 2016 Congressional Briefing Value
More informationNew Meteorological Services Supporting ATM
New Meteorological Services Supporting ATM Meteorological Services in the Terminal Area (MSTA)...providing MET services to support a move from Air Traffic Control (ATC) to more integrated and collaborative
More informationCoastal Erosion & Climate Change: PRIDE 2005 Towards an Alaska Wind/Wave Climatology
Coastal Erosion & Climate Change: PRIDE 2005 Towards an Alaska Wind/Wave Climatology 2 nd PRIDE Workshop August 9-10, 2005 David Atkinson, Int l Arctic Research Center, Univ. Of Alaska-Fairbanks James
More informationAdvances in weather and climate science
Advances in weather and climate science Second ICAO Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium (GANIS/2) 11 to 13 December 2017, Montreal, Canada GREG BROCK Scientific Officer Aeronautical Meteorology Division
More informationCOMMUNITY EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAM FLOODS INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION Floods are one of the most common hazards in the United States. A flood occurs any time a body of water rises to cover what is usually dry land. Flood effects can be local, impacting a neighborhood
More informationEl Niño Update Impacts on Florida
Current Issues in Emergency Management (CIEM) Sessions 1 &2 October 12 th and 26 th, 2006 Florida Division of Emergency Management Tallahassee, Florida El Niño Update Impacts on Florida Bart Hagemeyer
More informationSaiful Islam Anisul Haque
Workshop on Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Measures against Floods and Storm Surges in Bangladesh on 17-21 November, 2012, in Kyoto University, Japan Component 2: Flood disaster risk assessment and mitigation
More informationMassachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study
Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report May 2016 New England District Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report May 2016 Table of Contents 1.0 Study Area...
More informationCanadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards
Canadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards Bob Robichaud Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Canadian Hurricane Centre Contents Brief background on the
More informationEvolving Meteorological Services for the Terminal Area
Evolving Meteorological Services for the Terminal Area Towards an new participatory approach in ATM H. Puempel Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Dept. WMO The
More information1 City of Edmonton Quesnell Bridge, Roads and Associated Structures Assessment
1 City of Edmonton Quesnell Bridge, Roads and Associated Structures Assessment 1.1 Background Within the First National Engineering Vulnerability Assessment, the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability
More informationInternational Network to Encourage the Use of Monitoring and Forecasting Dust Products
International Network to Encourage the Use of Monitoring and Forecasting Dust Products COST Action CA16202 www.cost-indust.eu 1 Background Sand and Dust Storms (SDS) play a significant role in different
More informationEllen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA
Ellen L. Mecray NOAA Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region Taunton, MA Regions of the US National Climate Assessment What we Observe: Climate changes and impacts Increasing temperature Increasingly
More informationDevelopment and Application of Climate Prediction Technology to Limit Adverse Impact of Natural Disaster
2017/EPWG/SDMOF/016 Thematic Session 2.4 Development and Application of Climate Prediction Technology to Limit Adverse Impact of Natural Disaster Submitted by: APEC Climate Center 11 th Senior Disaster
More informationThe benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast
More informationNational level products generation including calibration aspects
National level products generation including calibration aspects Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK, Climatologist (cmeerbeeck@cimh.edu.bb), Adrian R. Trotman, Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (atrotman@cimh.edu.bb),
More informationSimulation of storm surge and overland flows using geographical information system applications
Coastal Processes 97 Simulation of storm surge and overland flows using geographical information system applications S. Aliabadi, M. Akbar & R. Patel Northrop Grumman Center for High Performance Computing
More informationAn Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center
National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast
More informationRecent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles
Recent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles Richard Swinbank, with thanks to Many colleagues in Met Office, GIFS-TIGGE WG & others HC-35 meeting, Curacao, April 2013 Recent advances
More informationExtreme Weather Events and Transportation Asset Management
Extreme Weather Events and Transportation Asset Management AASHTO Annual Meeting November 17, 2012 Mike Savonis ICF International 1 AASHTO commissioned a short paper on how to address Extreme Weather Events
More informationHurricane Matthew Threats and Impacts Briefing for Eastern NC
Hurricane Matthew Threats and Impacts Briefing for Eastern NC October 6 th, 2016 Date/Time Created: 10/6/2016, Noon EDT National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City, NC Hurricane Matthew Key Points Changes
More informationExtreme Weather Events and Climate Change
Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Robert M Rabin NOAA/National Severe Storms Lab Norman, Oklahoma Most material presented is from: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental
More informationSOUTHEAST ASIAN SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (SEA S2S) PROJECT
SOUTHEAST ASIAN SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (SEA S2S) PROJECT CONCEPT NOTE FOR SEA S2S FIRST WORKSHOP Feb 27 3 Mar 2017 CENTRE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH SINGAPORE (CCRS) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SINGAPORE (MSS) Background
More informationInternational Desks: African Training Desk and Projects
The Climate Prediction Center International Desks: African Training Desk and Projects Wassila M. Thiaw Team Leader Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 1 African Desk
More informationAviation Weather A NextGen Perspective. Mark Andrews Federal Chair Weather Working Group Joint Planning and Development Office July 21 st, 2010
Aviation Weather A NextGen Perspective Mark Andrews Federal Chair Weather Working Group Joint Planning and Development Office July 21 st, 2010 1 NextGen 101 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic
More informationStorm and Storm Systems Related Vocabulary and Definitions. Magnitudes are measured differently for different hazard types:
Storm and Storm Systems Related Vocabulary and Definitions Magnitude: this is an indication of the scale of an event, often synonymous with intensity or size. In natural systems, magnitude is also related
More informationCPC s Week-2 probabilistic forecasts of hazards and extremes
CPC s Week-2 probabilistic forecasts of hazards and extremes Melissa Ou, Matt Rosencrans, Mike Charles, Jon Gottschalck Acknowledgements: Stephen Baxter, Dave Unger, and Dan Collins Outline Background
More information2006 & 2007 Pre-Hurricane Scenario Analyses
2006 & 2007 Pre-Hurricane Scenario Analyses Executive Summary May 2007 Page 1 OF X FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 4 Public Availability to be Determined Under 5 U.S.C. 552 NOTE: Limited Distribution. Release of
More informationINCA-CE achievements and status
INCA-CE achievements and status Franziska Strauss Yong Wang Alexander Kann Benedikt Bica Ingo Meirold-Mautner INCA Central Europe Integrated nowcasting for the Central European area This project is implemented
More informationHurricane Shelter Standards Governors Hurricane Conference 2018
Hurricane Shelter Standards Governors Hurricane Conference 2018 Partnership with Florida Local Level State Level Hurricane Evacuation Studies Hurricane Evacuation Study Fresh Water Flooding Storm Surge
More informationUnique Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset GLD360 TM
Unique Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset GLD360 TM / THE ONLY LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK CAPABLE OF DELIVERING HIGH-QUALITY DATA ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD GLD360 provides high-quality lightning data anywhere
More informationObjective: Demonstrate the ability to utilize the full range of ICS command, control, and coordination options to organize a disaster.
Objective: Demonstrate the ability to utilize the full range of ICS command, control, and coordination options to organize a disaster. Instructions: 1. You will be assigned to one of the following four
More informationWhat is CERA? Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment
What is CERA? Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment Visualization tool using OGC standards Displays the outputs from the ADCIRC storm surge model or other coastal models Represents the maps on interactive
More informationGuide to Hydrologic Information on the Web
NOAA s National Weather Service Guide to Hydrologic Information on the Web Colorado River at Lees Ferry Photo: courtesy Tim Helble Your gateway to web resources provided through NOAA s Advanced Hydrologic
More informationUnique Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset GLD360 TM
Unique Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset GLD360 TM / THE ONLY LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK CAPABLE OF DELIVERING SUCH HIGH-QUALITY DATA ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD GLD360 provides high-quality lightning data anywhere
More informationGIS and Remote Sensing Support for Evacuation Analysis
GIS and Remote Sensing Support for Evacuation Analysis Presented to GIS for Transportation Symposium Rapid City, South Dakota March 28-31, 2004 Demin Xiong Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2360 Cherahala
More informationRadius of reliability: A distance metric for interpreting and verifying spatial probability forecasts
Radius of reliability: A distance metric for interpreting and verifying spatial probability forecasts Beth Ebert CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne, Australia Introduction Wish to warn for high impact
More informationExperimental Short-term Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers
Experimental Short-term Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Mike DeFlorio 1, Duane Waliser 2,3, F. Martin Ralph 1, Luca Delle Monache 1, Bin Guan 2,3, Alexander Goodman 2, Aneesh Subramanian 1, Zhenhai Zhang
More informationGEO-IV. Weather, Climate and Earth System Prediction. Document November This document is submitted to GEO-IV for information.
GEO-IV 28-29 November 2007 Weather, Climate and Earth System Prediction Document 22 This document is submitted to GEO-IV for information. The Socioeconomic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in
More informationHow ECMWF has addressed requests from the data users
How ECMWF has addressed requests from the data users David Richardson Head of Evaluation Section, Forecast Department, ECMWF David.richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 14, 2017 Overview Review the efforts made
More informationProgress in Aviation Weather Forecasting for ATM Decision Making FPAW 2010
Progress in Aviation Weather Forecasting for ATM Decision Making FPAW 2010 Jim Evans Marilyn Wolfson 21 October 2010-1 Overview (1) Integration with storm avoidance models and ATC route usage models (2)
More information2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond
2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond Ken Graham National Hurricane Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Much of U.S. Coast Saw Tropical Wind Watches or Warnings 2017 Hurricane Season Facts and Figures 7th
More informationAsian THORPEX Implementation Plan
Asian THORPEX Implementation Plan 1. Introduction This document is to describe the Implementation Plan of the Asian THORPEX, that the Asian THORPEX Regional Committee (ARC) approves. THORPEX was established
More informationIWT Scenario 2 Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service Albany, NY October 31, 2014
IWT Scenario 2 Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service Albany, NY October 31, 2014 09 10 11 12 13 Scenario 2 Timeline December 9-13 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Tue, Dec. 9 @ 5 am 2014 2014 2014
More informationBehind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
More informationWorkshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology /Climatology in Indonesia. Segel Ginting Wanny K. Adidarma
Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology /Climatology in Indonesia BPPT, 28 Februari 2013 JAKARTA FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (J-FEWS) Segel Ginting Wanny K. Adidarma JCP (Joint Cooperation Program) Indonesia
More information