Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study

Transcription

1 Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report May 2016 New England District

2 Massachusetts Hurricane Evacuation Study Technical Data Report May 2016

3 Table of Contents 1.0 Study Area Introduction Study Purpose Funding Authority Coordination Information Description of Study Area Geography Geology and Topography Bathymetry Demographics Historical Hurricane Activity Major Analyses General Hazards Analysis Vulnerability Analysis Behavioral Analysis Shelter Analysis Transportation Analysis HURREVAC/Decision Tools Hazards Analysis Introduction Purpose Forecasting Inaccuracies Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale Storm Surge Introduction Factors Affecting Surge Height i

4 2.2.3 Total Flood Elevation The SLOSH Model General SLOSH Grid Configuration Verification of the Model Model Output Modeling Process Simulated Hurricanes Maximum Envelopes of Water (MEOWs) Maximum of the MEOWs (MOMs) Other Hurricane Hazards Freshwater Flooding Hurricane Winds and Vulnerability Vulnerability Analysis Purpose Hurricane Surge Inundation Community-Specific Evacuation Zone Development Hurricane Surge Mapping Hurricane Evacuation Zones Vulnerable Population Possible Evacuation Obstacles Evacuation Route Flooding Emergency Transportation Needs Mobile Homes Behavioral Analysis Introduction Purpose Objectives Behavioral Anslysis ii

5 4.4.1 Evacuation Participation Rates Evacuation Timing Type of Refuge Destination Vehicle Use Possible Evacuation Obstacles Households Needing Assistance to Evacuate Other Challenges Planning, Information Access, and Home Characteristics Family Evacuation Plan Information Awareness and Access Housing Characteristics Past Evacuation Experiences Hurricane Sandy (2012) Hurricane Irene (2011) Hurricane Earl (2010) Sheltering Analysis Purpose General Shelter Vulnerability Shelter Demand Shelter Capacities and Inventories Transportation Analysis Introduction Analysis Objectives Transportation Analysis and Input Assumptions Traffic Analysis Zones Housing Unit and Population Data Behavioral Assumptions of the Evacuating Population iii

6 6.6.1 Participation Rates Response Rates Destination Percentages Vehicle Usage Transportation Modeling Methodology Introduction The Transportation Model Transportation Modeling Process Model Results Evacuating People and Vehicles Shelter Demand and Capacity Considerations Traffic Volumes and Critical Roadway Segments Compatibility with Other Hurricane Evacuation Related Studies Martha s Vineyard and Nantucket Ferries Estimated Evacuation Clearance Times State to State Trips and Clearance Time Impacts Traffic Control Measures General Recommendations Specific Recommendations Report Summary HURREVAC/Decision Tools Decision Tools Purpose Background HURREVAC History Overview for Using HURREVAC Using HURREVAC: The Basics Workspace Layout iv

7 7.3.2 Map Tools Context Menu and Shortcut Keys HURREVAC Program Setup Download Schedule Tab Local Areas Tab Points of Interest Timeline Time Zone Default Map Settings Wind Forecast Timing and Probability Reports Opening the Wind Timing and Wind Probability Reports Wind Timing for Single Area/Point of Interest Report Wind Timing All Affected Areas/Local Areas/All Affected Points of Interest Report Wind Probabilities Single Area Report Wind Probabilities All Affected Areas/Local Areas Report/All Affected Points of Interest Report Inland Wind Decay for Areas/Points of Interest Evacuation Timing Features Opening the Evacuation Timing Reports Evacuation Timing Single Area Scenario Evacuation Timing All Affected Areas/Local Areas Clearance Time Arc Other Forecast Data Doppler Radar Observations Rain Forecast River Data and Forecasts Tide Gages Probabilistic Storm Surge Data Browsers/Utilities Evacuation Clearance Time Browser v

8 7.8.2 Export to GIS Storm Summary PDF Accessing and Interpreting Important Decision Making Functions Determining the Relative Risk of Experiencing Landfall in a Community over the 120 Hour Forecast Period Determining Which Community Has the Highest Forecasted Peak Wind Determining the Projected Wind Speed Forecast for Nantucket, MA at Each Hour in the Forecast Period Determining the Evacuation Start Time for Wareham, MA, Based on a Cat 2 Direct Hit Scenario Determining the Evacuation Start Time for Newport, RI, Based on a Cat 1 Using the Clearance Time Arc Method Other Features of HURREVAC Obtaining HURREVAC Glossary... G-1 Related Links... RL-1 vi