A Multi-Hazard Evaluation of Vulnerability using GIS along Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC
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1 A Multi-Hazard Evaluation of Vulnerability using GIS along Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC Tom Allen¹, Burrell Montz¹, JP Walsh¹, Tom Crawford² ¹East Carolina University, ²Saint Louis University Presented by Michael Flynn¹, Coastal Resources Management PhD Student
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4 Michael Flynn
5 Michael Flynn
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7 Michael Flynn
8 Michael Flynn
9 Michael Flynn
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11 Hurricane Irene six hours before landfall on Aug 27
12 Hurricane Irene (2011) Pea Island Wildlife Refuge Rodanthe
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18 Task Agreement No. P13AC01432 Piedmont South Atlantic Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit Task Agreement Between National Park Service And East Carolina University To Identify Cultural Resources Sites Affected by Sea Level Rise at Cape Hatteras National Seashore
19 Principal Investigators Dr. Tom Allen Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Burrell Montz Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. JP Walsh Department of Geology East Carolina University Dr. Tom Crawford Center for Sustainability Saint Louis University
20 Steve Earley Scope of Work East Carolina University will work closely with NPS staff and scientists to model local sea level rise and evaluate the vulnerability of 27 Historic Structures at Cape Hatteras National Seashore.
21 Project Objective ECU will identify the risk level of each structure and identify the estimate timelines for potential impact and alternative relocation of structures and districts.
22 Cape Hatteras National Seashore There are 27 historic structures located within 5 areas of interest. Bodie Island Coast Guard and Light Station Little Kinnakeet Hatteras Light Station Hatteras Weather Bureau Ocracoke Light Station
23 Bodie Island Light and Coast Guard Station
24 Little Kinnakeet
25 Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins
26 Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins Michael Colligan
27 Hatteras Weather Bureau
28 Ocracoke Light Station
29 Roger Bansemer Multi-Hazard Approach Coastal Erosion DSAS LRR Storm Surge SLOSH MOMs Sea Level Rise Bathtub Hydrodynamic
30 Completed Projects Historical Shoreline Change Effects of climatology on net shoreline movement Elevation Change Assessment following storm events
31 Completed using USGS Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) What method and shorelines should be used to project future shoreline position? Net Shoreline Movement End Point Rate (NCDCM) Linear Regression Rate 2D vs 3D considerations How do you account for nourishment? What about estuarine shorelines?
32 NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Annual Mode Annual Average Year WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) WVHT (m) DPD (s) APD (s) Std. Dev
33 Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis Annual Wave Analysis WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year Year 0.0
34 Wind Direction (Degrees) Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year
35 Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year
36 Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year
37 Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station Historical Data Seasonal Wind Analysis Seasonal Wave Analysis WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Season Season Should we pay attention to seasonal variation? What effect does it have on shoreline position?
38 2009 USACE Aug CHARTS Grid Size: 2 +/- 0.75m Hor +/- 0.2m Ver 2009 USGS Nov 27,29 Dec 1 EAARL Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.15m Ver
39 2009 USGS Nov 27,29 Dec 1 EAARL Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.15m Ver 2011 NGS Aug Riegl Q680i-D Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.3m Ver
40 2011 NGS Aug Riegl Q680i-D Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.3m Ver 2012 USGS Nov 5-29 Optech Gemini Grid Size: 1 +/ m Hor +/ m Ver
41 Roger Bansemer Future Work Storm Surge Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Nor Easter Use MOM Sea Level Rise 20, 40, 80, 120 cm scenarios Future geomorphological change Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Inlet Opening Potential Dune Hazard Analysis Tool (DHAT)
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49 Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS
50 Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS
51 Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS
52 Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS
53 Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS
54 Method Simple cross-section measurements of island volume above sea level (Perkins et al., 2007, Walsh et al., submitted) Plan to update using most recent LIDAR derived DEM
55 Roger Bansemer Deliverable Final report and maps documenting the hazards that threaten the 27 historic structures forecasted 30 years in 5 year increments. A protocol that other parks can use to perform a similar assessment questions/comments to flynnmi13@students.ecu.edu
56 questions/comments to
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