PART 1: Workspace Layout

Transcription

1 PART 1: Workspace Layout 1 - Program Header Tools to manage program setup, update forecast data, print, create a Storm Summary PDF document, and capture animated (GIF) graphics. The header also includes system messaging capabilities used to broadcast information from HURREVAC s technical support staff or the National Hurricane Program when special situations arise having to do with operation of the software. 2 Current/Archive Data List The Current tab contains a list of current forecast information, including active storm(s), rainfall forecast data, river and tide gauge data, weather radar, probabilistic storm surge data, and wind probability data. The Archives tab allows access similar data for historic storms and forecasts. 3 - Map Display/Data Display Window Displays map and map legend, tropical cyclone advisory text products, tropical weather outlooks by basin, tabular reports, and charts. Tabs at the top of the window switch between the various views. 4 - Map Tools Controls what is shown in the Map Display Window (Area 3). Options include map zooming and panning, measuring distances, moving a storm along a forecast track, changing advisories, and toggling on/off various STORM FEATURES such as hourly wind ranges, potential track, wind probabilities, watches/warnings, and more. The bottom two buttons move back and forward through previous map views, and reset map graphics. 5 - Toolbox Access to additional STORM FEATURES and MAP ANNOTATION options, BROWSERS for evacuation clearance times and storm surge maps, and UTILITIES for changing evacuation settings, plus manipulation and export/import of storm data. Hawaii Scenario Page 1

2 PART 2: Map Tools, Context Menu, and Keyboard Shortcuts A vertical map toolbar and map context menu (accessed by right-clicking on the map) cover the most commonly-used functions within the Map Display Window (Area 3). Certain buttons and menu items may be greyed out until a specific data layer is checked on under the Current/Archive Data List (Area 2). Map Tools Many buttons have both left and right-click functionality. Hovering over a button will briefly display a tool-tip description of its action or actions as shown below. Zoom (Black Arrow): Draw a box on map with left mouse button to zoom in Pan (White Hand): Move the map by holding down left mouse button and moving mouse Measure (Triangle): To measure distance, click left mouse button on map at start/end point Map Extent (Globe): Toggle between user defined full (left click) and local (right click) map view Zoom In/Out (Magnifying Glass with + or symbol): Left click to zoom in/out one level. The current zoom level, ranging from 5 to 11, is reflected in the bottom right corner of the program window. Move storm graphics and legend data forward or back within the forecast period for the current loaded storm and advisory (Yellow Arrows): Left click to move forward/back 1 hour, right click to move forward/back 6 hours. Bottom button moves storm forward automatically. Change Advisory (ADV with up/down arrows): These buttons cycle through previous or historic advisories for the storm you have loaded. Left click to move forward or back 1 advisory. Right click to move forward or back 3 advisories. Hourly Forecast: Turn on/off the hourly wind field (Colored Circle) or potential location showing forecast uncertainty (White Circle). See legend in map display window for more details. Entire Forecast: Turn on/off 72-hour wind forecast (Colored Swath) or potential track (White Cone) of area where there is a 66% chance that the center of the storm will pass through during the next 3 (white) or 5 (hollow) days. Advisory Labels (Text Bubble): Left click for advisory labels on map. Right click for label settings. Watches/Warnings (Warning Flag): Left Click to add watch/warning graphics to map Wind Probability Locations (Percent Sign): Show location-based probability labels on map Back and Forward (Blue Arrow): Left click for previous map extent, then right click for next extent. Reset (Red Circle): Left click to restore map display to default graphics. Right click to configure defaults. Hawaii Scenario Page 2

3 Map Context Menu and Keyboard Shortcuts Right-click within the Map Display window to access context menu options for that map location. Keyboard shortcuts are also available for certain functions noted below as (CTRL-?). A. Zoom to the extent of the storm of interest (CTRL-Z). B. Advance the storm into the advisory s forecast period. Options are to advance to the hour nearest the mouse cursor or to input a specific hour. C. Select a different advisory to display. Options are to move storm to the advisory nearest the mouse cursor (CTRL-N), advance to the current/last advisory, or to input a specific advisory number. D. Add, move, or delete Custom Text Annotation(s) tied to a map position nearest the mouse cursor. A checkbox for MAP ANNOTATIONS > Custom Annotation within the Toolbox toggles this layer off and back on. E. Add (CTRL-W) and remove winds tag(s) that will display the deterministic forecast wind direction and speed when overtopped by the storm s hourly wind fields. A checkbox for MAP ANNOTATIONS > Wind Tags within the Toolbox toggles this layer off and back on. F. Generate a 72-hour Wind Timing Report for the specified location on the map. This report gives deterministic, hour-by-hour forecasted wind detail information for the point location. G. Generate a Wind Probabilities Report or Graph for the specified location on the map. This report gives the percent chance of tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and hurricane-force sustained winds within 6-hour intervals of time throughout a 120-hour forecast period. H. (Not Applicable to Hawaii and Pacific Islands) Creates a 78-hour Surge Probability Report or Graph for the specified location on the map. This report gives water depth in height above ground level (including tidal fluctuation) that has a 10% chance of being exceeded and represent values are on the high end of the range of surge depths that could possibly occur. I. Add range marks to the map, centered at the location nearest the mouse cursor. The purpose of range marks is to illustrate how far away the storm is from a location of interest. A checkbox for MAP ANNOTATIONS > Range Marks within the Toolbox toggles this layer off and back on. Also, the default range mark interval of 100 statute miles can be modified under SETUP > Default Map. J. Adjust the location of Advisory Labels by toggling on and off handles for label dragging (CTRL-L). An additional menu option is provided for resetting labels back to their original auto-placement. K. Move the Storm Info Box to a specified location on the map or return it to the legend at the bottom of the map. L. Create a Point of Interest at a specified location, with a specific name and type. Additional options for adding, editing, and importing points of interest are available within SETUP > Points of Interest. Hawaii Scenario Page 3

4 Part 3 Important Features Weather Data Storm Tracks by Ocean Basin These plots of past and forecast tracks for storms are derived from details within text-based tropical cyclone advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Successive numbered advisories are published every 6 hours at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC, which is the equivalent of 5 PM, 11 PM, 5 AM, and 11 AM Hawaiian Time (HST). These are the critical times when you should check the program for new forecast information. Intermediate(A) advisories are published in between main advisory times if watches and warnings are in effect because the storm is close and threatening. An intermediate advisory only updates the current location and intensity of the storm and does not contain changes to the forecast track. Wind Probabilities Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities are important because they communicate forecast uncertainties not immediately apparent from the storm tracks and their deterministic winds projections. The half-degree gridded wind probability product in HURREVAC is a composite from ALL tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. It is updated every 6 hours, approximately 10 minutes after advisory issuance hour. When this layer is turned on, the map initially shows areas that have a 5% or greater chance of experiencing winds over the tropical storm (34kt/39mph) threshold within a 5-day forecast period. Using radio button options under the Wind Probabilities heading of the data list, the map display can be changed to instead show areas with probability of winds over strong tropical storm (50kt/58mph) or hurricane(64kt/74mph) threshold. Surge Probabilities (Not Applicable to Hawaii and Pacific Islands) The probabilistic storm surge layer in HURREVAC highlights coastal areas that have a potential for storm surge flooding. Potential flooding is represented as water height in feet above ground level and is intended to encompass reasonable worst case scenarios, meaning that in only 1 in 10 cases would the water height exceed the value reported at a specified location. The surge probabilities data source is NHC s P-Surge 2.5 product (with tide) which will only be produced when a hurricane or strong tropical storm is within 48 hours of landfall. Updates to this data are tied to the 6-hour advisory cycle, but may not be available until 30 minutes or more after issuance hour depending on the complexity of the storm surge model. Radio buttons under the Surge Probabilities heading of the data list include options for either a 4-color scale that approximates NHC s online inundation graphic, or a more-detailed 20-color scale containing 2-ft intervals of water height. These surge timing tools appear in the program header only when a surge probabilities layer is displayed on the map. The first three buttons (back/forward/animate) are for viewing water heights in 6 hour increments in time. The fourth button in the row is used to reset the display back to the default 78-hr cumulative surge. Hawaii Scenario Page 4

5 Doppler Radar Observations (Not Applicable to Hawaii and Pacific Islands) This layer, available only within the CURRENT data list, automatically updates every 10 minutes with a new snapshot from the network of NEXTRAD stations in the continental United States. In the context of hurricane tracking, the colors of the radar image provide a useful illustration of the extent of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms for a storm near or over land. Rain Forecast (Not Applicable to Hawaii and Pacific Islands) Quantitative precipitation forecasts are useful for anticipating inland flood potential from a tropical cyclone within 3 days of landfall. The 3- day forecast is issued twice a day at 0000 and 1200 UTC (8 AM and 8 PM Eastern Daylight Time) by the NWS Weather Prediction Center. It is a generalized precipitation forecast for the continental United States. When this layer is turned on, the map initially shows a cumulative Day 1 rainfall forecast in the form of isopleths (polygons) of rainfall amount, with higher amounts of rain nested within lower amounts. Radio button options are available for cycling the map display through the rainfall forecast for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3. Rivers NOAA s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) is HURREVAC s source of data for approximately 1,100 river gauges in hurricane prone states from Texas to Maine, plus Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Orange, red, and purple colors of river gauge locations on the map indicate where flooding is either already occurring or forecast to occur within the next 5 days. Clicking on a single gauge location brings up a plot of water level and access to additional information about flood impacts and history. The River Flood Outlook highlights general areas within the continental United States that are experiencing riverine flooding or have the potential for flooding within the next 5 days. Individual river gauges update continuously, while the Flood Outlook is updated just one time per day typically by 2000 UTC (4 PM Eastern Daylight Time). Tide Gauges NOAA Tides Online is HURREVAC s source of data for approximately 130 tide stations in hurricane prone states from Texas to Maine, plus Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and U.S. territories in the West Pacific. Gauge locations are all marked by white circles. Clicking on a single gauge location brings up a plot of water level predicted by normal tide fluctuations (black line) and observed water level over time (blue dots). For a storm approaching landfall, the RESIDUAL difference between predicted and observed tide at nearby tide gauges can be a useful indicator of the storm tide (storm surge + tide) water level. Hurricane Evacuation Study Data Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) address hurricane planning and impact assessment for coastal regions. These studies look at the vulnerability of a population to hurricane threats and provide guidance to local emergency managers planning an evacuation of the community. One of the key outputs of an HES process is the matrix of evacuation clearance times. A clearance time is defined as the number of hours it takes to move the threatened population to safety given various factors such as the category of storm, the tourist occupancy (or population) of the area at the time, and public responsiveness. HURREVAC utilizes clearance times from the various HES for its evacuation timing analysis. To see all of the available evacuation scenarios for your county, go to BROWSERS > Evacuation Clearance Times within the toolbox. Hawaii Scenario Page 5

6 Another product of the HES process that is included within HURREVAC is the collection of storm surge maps of vulnerable coastal regions. Delineated zones on the maps reflect the worst-case surge inundation possible for each category of hurricane from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Map content and format varies with study regions. In addition to surge zones, some maps include evacuation routes and important assets such as shelters. To view the HES maps for your county, look under BROWSERS > Storm Surge Maps. Evacuation Timing The most crucial function of HURREVAC is its ability to keep the local emergency manager apprised of how many hours (or days) a community has for preparation and planning in advance of a threatening storm. As new forecast information becomes available, HURREVAC continually updates and reports on the community s Evacuation Start Time, or last possible time by which an evacuation could be initiated if it is to be completed before the arrival of the storm hazards based upon planning assumptions applied in each specific Hurricane Evacuation Study. HURREVAC arrives at an evacuation start time using input from the official hurricane forecast and the Hurricane Evacuation Study for the county of interest. To determine the arrival time of tropical storm force winds, the program takes a worst-case scenario of a direct hit in which the movement speed and wind fields of the official forecast are retained, but the track is straightened and redirected to the county of interest. A clearance time is selected from a matrix of times in the local HES based upon storm intensity and various local factors. Subtracting the number of clearance time hours from the arrival of the first hazards, we arrive at an earlier point in time the Evacuation Start Time. Decisions to mobilize and evacuate communities are not always easy or obvious, and the advantage of fine-tuning your Evacuation Start Time as well as other storm timeline preparations in HURREVAC is that you can base decisions upon the closest projections of the storm track, intensity, and size. Hawaii Scenario Page 6

7 Options exist in the program for getting alerts with regard to evacuation start timing and other storm timelines. To mark evacuation scenarios for alerting, go to UTILITIES > Set Evac Options and press the Select Scenarios button at the bottom. To add timeline actions and link them to a single county for alerting purposes, go to Setup > Timeline. Alerting for evacuation scenarios begins only when within 12 hours (2 advisories) of start time. Alerting for timeline actions can begin as early as 3 days out, provided that the selected county is within the 72-hour deterministic forecast wind swath. Reports Reports are added as new tabs to the end of the display window, either by 1) clicking on the Reports (+) label shown below and then making an Analysis/Reports selection, or 2) right-clicking on the map and choosing one of the point-specific reports offered in the map context menu s items F, G and H. You must first have a data layer loaded on the map (for instance--a specific storm track and advisory number, wind probabilities, surge probabilities, or rain forecast) before the corresponding report can be generated. Reports have varying geographic scope, as shown here on the left under the expanded heading for Wind Timing All Affected Areas Analysis is done for ALL counties that are within the geographic area encompassed by the corresponding map layer. Information pertaining to each county is in a separate row of the tabular report. Local Areas Report is identical to the one for All Affected Areas, but includes a shorter list of specific counties that you have marked within Setup > Local Areas as locations of interest. All Affected Points of Interest Report is similar to the one for All Affected Areas, except that the analysis is for point locations that you have added or imported into the program (under Setup > Points of Interest), rather than a larger county-wide area. Single Area Analysis is for a SINGLE county only and includes greater detail than can be gathered from the All or Local Areas reports. Each row of this tabular report represents an increment of time. Single Point of Interest Report is similar in format to the Single Area report, but for a SINGLE point location. Asking the question When will winds reach the EOC in the center of the county that I ve marked as a point of interest? gives a different result from asking When will winds will first reach the county?, the latter of which will give an earlier answer based on when the storm s wind field first touches an outer edge of the county. Hawaii Scenario Page 7

8 The following types of analyses give very specific estimates of wind speeds and timing, derived from the official forecast track. They require only the storm track and a specific advisory to be loaded on the map. HURREVAC s archives contain forecast storm tracks dating back from present time to 1995, so these reports can be generated for any storm. In contrast, these additional reports below are probabilistic in nature. Only the Error Cone/Potential Track Area report is derived from the storm track and can be run against any archived storm in HURREVAC. Wind Probabilities and Surge Probabilities are associated with map data layers populated only if storm conditions warrant NHC to issue these separate products. A few sample datasets are provided on the Archives side of HURREVAC under Other Archive Data for practice purposes. Hawaii Scenario Page 8

9 Points of Interest and Other Map Annotations User-defined Points of Interest (POIs) is a relatively new feature in HURREVAC. POIs can be used to supplement or replace the map s default labeling of major cities (MAP ANNOTATIONS > Cities). POIs are also a basis for many kinds of reports in HURREVAC. Points of Interest must be entered into the program. To enter a point directly from the map, RIGHT-click on the location and choose Create Point of Interest Here from the map context menu. You will be prompted to assign a point name and type. The Type field is used for identifying like points such that as a group they can be toggled on/off, assigned a unique label style, and filtered in reports. POIs that have been entered into the program are organized according to their assigned types under MAP ANNOTATIONS > Points of Interest. Use this area of the toolbox to quickly zoom to the map extent of a specific group of points (by clicking on the text of the Type name) or toggle off the display of a group (by clicking on the check box of the Type name). Additional options for adding, editing, and importing POIs are available under SETUP > Points of Interest. If you have many locations to include in HURREVAC, either 1) batch importing points from a spreadsheet or 2) externally referencing points stored in a shapefile is recommended. The Points of Interest Mapping Styles button within SETUP gives access to options for assigning specific font styles and zoom levels for initial appearance to each POI type. Several other frequently-used map annotation features in HURREVAC include: Advisory Labels These text tags appear along the track of the working storm and can be toggled on/off using STORM FEATURES > Advisory Labels or the Advisory Label button. Enter label setup (RIGHT-click to button) to change the type of information contained in labels, change the interval of labeling, and font size/style. Individual label positions can be adjusted by pressing CTRL-L on the keyboard to enable dragging handles at the beginning of each label. Once the positions have been adjusted, press CTRL-L again to dismiss the drag handles and lock the labels in place. Legend and Storm Information Box Legend information appearing across the bottom of the map varies depending on what data layers are currently displayed. See MAP ANNOTATIONS > Map Legend for a full list of items that can appear automatically in the legend, or be omitted if unchecked. The storm info box (placed by RIGHT-clicking on the map and choosing Move Storm Info Box Here ) is an alternative to showing the working storm s advisory details on the first several lines of the legend. Hawaii Scenario Page 9

10 Export Options Various options exist for getting images, tabular data, map data, and summary documents out of HURREVAC for distribution or analysis in another program. Print/Print to File To capture a static image of HURREVAC s tracking map in its current state of appearance, press the Print button and select the Print to Graphics File option. PNG is the recommended file format for best image quality. Storm Summary PDF This tool is useful for quickly generating a multi-page document which summarizes conditions from the currently displayed storm and advisory. The basic summary will include several paragraphs of information concerning the storm s intensity and current location, plus a screen capture from the current map display. The forecast center s official advisory text products (public advisory plus forecast discussion) are appended to the end of the summary unless the box for this option is unchecked. Options are also available to include local information concerning wind and evacuation timing. Animated GIF Recording This feature is used to capture snippets of action from HURREVAC. For instance, you could record wind ranges advancing along the forecast track of the storm to illustrate the projected timing of wind hazards and then distribute the resulting animated GIF file. Two buttons within the program header are needed for GIF recording. The button on the left must first be used to define a box area of the screen for recording; then the button on the right (or CTRL-R on the keyboard) is used to start and stop the GIF recording. Excel Spreadsheet All tabular reports in HURREVAC offer the option to save the data in an XLSX (Microsoft Excel) spreadsheet format. Right-click to the individual report s tab and choose Export Report to Excel from the menu. Shapefile GIS Format To export map objects for use in other mapping programs, go the UTILITIES > Export/Import > Export to GIS within HURREVAC s toolbox. Any storm features, rain isopleths, and flood polygons currently displayed on the map will be available for export. Based upon your selection(s), the program will save the geographic data in various point, line, and polygon shapefiles with attributes associated with each shape. Hawaii Scenario Page 10

11 PART 4: Answering Key Questions When a Storm is Approaching The following practice scenario is based on tracking of Hurricane Iselle, a storm which threatened the Hawaiian Islands in To answer these first three sets of questions, check on Iselle from within 2014 Storms > Central Pacific of the ARCHIVES data list. Within the Toolbox, uncheck STORM FEATURES > Actual Track Ahead and go to Advisory 27 using either the (ADV >) button or the map context menu s Select Advisory option. The first three questions demonstrate the use of probabilistic tools and resources to use while the storm is still distant and forecast uncertainty is high. 1. What portions of the State of Hawaii are within the potential track of the storm center and/or the potential area for tropical storm force or greater winds? How early might tropical storm force winds begin on the Big Island of Hawaii? Right-click on the (Potential Track Area) button to add a hatched fringe winds area surrounding the white cone that represents where the center of the storm is most likely to track within the next 3 days. The Big Island is within the potential track area of the storm center. Maui, Oahu, and Kauai are within potential area for tropical storm force or greater winds. RIGHT-click on the Potential Location button (or within the Toolbox, turn on Potential Location + Winds ) and advance the storm along the forecast track using the yellow Move Storm Ahead (arrow +) button. Stop when the hatched ring first touches the coast of Hawaii and note the date and time from the legend. Winds may start on the Big Island of Hawaii as early as 3 PM on August 7 th. 2. How have coastal watches and warnings changed from Advisory 26 to Advisory 27? What is CPHC s rational for these changes? Within the Toolbox, ensure that STORM FEATURES > Watches/Warnings is checked. Use the ADV > and < ADV buttons to toggle back and forth between the two advisories and note the differences in highlighted coastal areas. A watch means that the threat is possible within 48 hours and a warning means that the threat is possible within 36 hours. The following line appears in the legend to indicate watch and warning colors: Hawaii Scenario Page 11

12 With Advisory 27 showing on the map, click on the Advisory tab and scroll down to read the contents of the Public Advisory & Discussion. The top of the public advisory specifically describes changes to the watch/warning areas. The bottom of the discussion explains the rational for changes. A hurricane warning has been issued for Hawaii County and a tropical storm warning has been issued for Maui. The storm intensity forecast has increased slightly. 3. For Maui County, Hawaii, which time period has the earliest chance for onset of tropical storm force winds? What is the overall (cumulative) chance of hurricane force winds and when are hurricane force winds most likely to begin? Load the Iselle31.tpcprblty zip file from within Other Archived Data > Wind Probabilities of the ARCHIVES data list. This file contains wind probabilities for the entire northern hemisphere at the time of Iselle Advisory 31 and must be loaded separately from the Iselle storm track before the above questions can be answered. In a live storm event, the corresponding wind probability graphic would be accessed from the CURRENT data list, under the Wind Probabilities heading. Click on the Reports(+) tab and add a Wind Probabilities > Single Area report for Maui. The individual time period that has the earliest chance for onset of tropical storm force winds is from 8 AM to 2 PM Thursday (highlighted in blue as a 1% chance). The overall chance of hurricane force winds is 4% and the most likely onset for these winds is from 2 to 8 AM Sunday (highlighted in red as a 2% chance). Hawaii Scenario Page 12

13 Once a storm is 24 to 48 hours of landfall, deterministic wind timing and intensity reports should be used to supplement probabilistic data within HURREVAC. Advance to Iselle Advisory 31 using the (ADV >) button before answering the next three questions. 4. What county has the highest forecasted peak wind? What are the specific hour-by-hour wind projections for this area? Click on the Reports(+) tab and select Wind Timing Chart > All Affected Areas to see wind timing and intensity for all counties within the forecast wind swath. The information is generalized with each column representing a 2-hour block of time that is colored according to projected wind threshold exceedance: tropical storm(blue), strong tropical storm(yellow), and hurricane force(red). Use the button at the bottom of the report to sort by Strongest. Hawaii County is projected to experience the earliest, strongest, and longest duration of winds. Add an additional report for Wind Timing > Single Area and select Hawaii County. The Date/Time and Wind Speed columns provide the wind speed that is projected for each hour in the forecast period. Do not focus on specific wind speeds reported here, but instead consider this a general guide of possible timing and severity. Hawaii Scenario Page 13

14 5. For areas within the potential track of Iselle, how soon would evacuations need to begin if using HURREVAC s default settings for evacuation options? Click on the Reports(+) tab and select Evacuation Timing > All Affected Area Scenarios. At this time, evacuation clearance times are only available for Honolulu. Under some scenarios, evacuation (if warranted) would need to begin within the next advisory cycle or two. Add an additional report for Evacuation Timing > Single Area Scenario and choose the Windward Oahu Worst Storm Heavy Traffic scenario for Honolulu, Hawaii. By default, this will utilize a clearance time of 10 hours based on a Category 1 storm under medium tourist occupancy and medium response. Hawaii Scenario Page 14

15 For both of the above reports, HURREVAC uses a worst-case direct hit approach for calculating wind arrival. Default selection of SS Category is based upon the highest category forecast over the entire storm track. 6. How can the default settings that HURREVAC uses to calculate evacuation start times be modified? How many different evacuation scenarios exist in the Hurricane Evacuation Study for Honolulu County and what is their range of clearance times? Click on the Evac Options at the bottom of the report, or select UTILITIES > Evacuation Options from within the Toolbox for viewing and changing settings. Change the Tourist Occupancy to High and the Response to Slow, press Apply to ALL, then OK to dismiss the screen. Return to the Evac Timing (Plaquemines, LA) report and press Refresh in the bottom right corner. A 10-hour clearance time is now in effect and the EVAC START TIME is reported as an earlier 10 AM CDT. To review all clearance time scenarios for a county or parish, go to BROWSERS > Evacuation Clearance Times. Choose Hawaii and Honolulu. Honolulu County has 14 evacuation scenarios with clearance times ranging from 5 to 50 hours. Hawaii Scenario Page 15