WMO LC-LRFMME and Seasonal Climate Outlook for ONDJFM 2015/16

Transcription

1 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble WMO LC-LRFMME and Seasonal Climate Outlook for ONDJFM 2015/16 Daeun Jeong and WMO LC-LRFMME team The Winter South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (WinSASCOF-1) and Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag1) October 2015 Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

2 Contents 1 Introduction to WMO LC-LRFMME 2 Seasonal Prediction: ONDJFM 2015/16 3 Summary

3 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME)

4 Concept of WMO LC-LRFMME One of the important missions of WMO Lead Centre is to provide a linkage between GPCs and other organizations such as RCCs, GPCs, NMHSs, and RCOFs. Even though it is very beneficial for all GPCs to share their outputs with other regions, it is very difficult to use long range forecast model outputs directly due to their different standards. In order to maximize the use of outputs for disaster prevention and better socioeconomic planning, the WMO LC provides a venue to collect and display all GPC product.

5 Members of WMO LC-LRFMME 12 GPCs around the world

6 Goals of WMO LC-LRFMME To provide To Provide conduit for sharing the model data To develop a well-calibrated MME system for mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable climate conditions, and maximizing the benefit from favorable conditions high-quality climate prediction products, and To develop advanced climate prediction technology

7 Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Redistributing digital forecast data GPC Forecast data GPC GPC Forecast data Forecast data Generating GPCs forecasts in a standard format Displaying a standardized set of Lead Centre products GPC Forecast data Maintaining a lot of documentation

8 Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

9 Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Membership Levels & Accessibility Level A (GPCs) - Upload & download digital data (limited) - Download image plots Level B (NMHSs, RCCs) - Download digital data (limited) & image plots Level C (Others) - Image plots As of 1 st October 2014, access to the site is limited to GPCs, RCCs, NMHSs, and bodies coordinating RCOFs.

10 Individual forecast Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

11 Individual forecast: Map types Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Rectangular Time Series Stereographic All Map Consistency Map SST Plume

12 Individual forecast: Forecast period Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

13 Individual forecast: All GPCs Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

14 Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Individual forecast: Forecast regions Global Australia Russia East Asia North America Africa South America South Asia Arbitrary Region: East Africa

15 MME method: Deterministic MME Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Deterministic MME Simple Composite Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition Genetic Algorithm For Simple Composite Mean, users can choose the forecast period! (1month ~ 9month)

16 MME method: Probabilistic MME Products of WMO LC-LRFMME

17 Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Regional Climate Outlook Forum in GHACOF Feb Entebbe, Uganda SASCOF Apr Pune, India FOCRAII Apr Beijing, China GHACOF Aug Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ASEANCOF Nov Singapore EASCOF Oct Tokyo, Japan GHACOF Feb Nairobi, Kenya FOCRAII May Beijing, China SASCOF Apr Dhaka, Bangladesh GHACOF Aug Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

18 Other Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update Objective of GSCU A new initiative for Consensus-based Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of Seasonal Climate of the world To provide the world community with an expert consensus on the state of the global climate with an outlook for the upcoming season along with information on robustness of the available forecast signals To strengthen international collaboration and information flow between global, regional and national level operational climate monitoring and prediction centres For use by RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs for assistance in preparation of regional and national climate Updates Expert Meeting on scoping Global Seasonal Climate Updates at WMO Haedquarters, Geneva, Switzerland October 2010

19 Seasonal Prediction : ONDJFM 2015/16

20 Participating Models for ONDJFM 2015/16 GPC Beijing CPTEC ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal (cancm3/ cancm4) Pretoria Seoul Tokyo Toulouse Washington Moscow Institute BCC CPTEC ECMWF UKMO BoM MSC SAWS KMA TCC Meteo- France NCEP HMC Hindcast period GPC Pretoria updated its model as of February 2015! Model : SCM (SAWS Coupled Model) Forecast: monthly rolling three-month forecast with one-month lead Hindcast period : The model of GPC Tokyo had been changed as of June 2015! Model : JMA/MRI-CPS1 JMA/MRI-CPS2 Forecast: monthly rolling seven-month forecast with one-month lead Hindcast period :

21 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble 1. Oceanic Condition and Outlook

22 Large scale SST indices Month Niño 1+2 Niño 3 Niño 4 Niño3.4 IOD NTA STA JUL AUG SEP El Niño has continued during Jul 2015 to Sep The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) hold to positive phase during last 3 months. Data from OISST

23 Recent condition in the Pacific Ocean During August and September, positive subsurface temperature anomalies slightly moved to the eastern Pacific. 1.1ºC 2.4ºC 2.8ºC 2.8ºC Issued by NCEP/CPC on 5 Oct

24 ENSO Prediction OND 2015 Most models predict El Niño condition during ONDJFM 2015/16. NDJ 2015/16 DJF 2015/16 JFM 2016

25 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble 2. Prediction for ONDJFM 2015/16

26 2m Temperature for OND 2015 DMME PMME Warm condition is expected over almost all South Asia region.

27 2m Temperature for NDJ 2015/16 DMME PMME Above-normal condition over Western India and Myanmar becomes stronger.

28 2m Temperature for DJF 2015/16 DMME PMME

29 2m Temperature for JFM 2016 DMME PMME It is expected that warm conditions over South Asia persist until JFM 2016.

30 Precipitation for OND 2015 DMME PMME Wet condition is shown over Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Indian Ocean in DMME. Near-normal condition in some parts of Pakistan and India is forcasted in PMME.

31 Precipitation for NDJ 2015/16 DMME PMME Above-normal condition in India and Myanmar is forcasted in PMME.

32 Precipitation for DJF 2015/16 DMME PMME Slightly wet condition is shown over Bay of Bengal in DMME.

33 Precipitation for JFM 2016 DMME PMME DMME shows that near-normal condition is dominant over South Asia region.

34 Summary for ONDJFM 2015/16 Ocean ENSO Positive SST anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific with the Nino 3.4 index are expected. Atmosphere 2m Temperature Warmer-than-normal conditions are dominant over the most South Asia region for both OND and JFM seasons. Precipitation Near- normal conditions are expected over South Asia region for OND season, but slightly above-normal conditions are forecasted in some parts of India for JFM season.

35 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Thank you!

36 For more Information, please contact Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration Contact Information 45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu Seoul , Republic of KOREA Tel.: Fax: lc_lrfmme@korea.kr Website :

37 2m temperature for ONDJFM 2015/16

38 Precipitation for ONDJFM 2015/16