Presentation on RSMC Nadi-TCC Activities

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1 6 th TC RSMC Technical Coordination Meeting, Brisbane, Australia, 2 5 Nov 2009 Presentation on RSMC Nadi-TCC Activities R. Prasad Director RSMC Nadi-TCC

2 NADI TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

3 RSMC NADI - TCC Approved by WMO EC in June 1995 Acts as RSMC for Tropical Cyclones in SW Pacific Primary Area of Responsibility: Equator to 25 South 160 East-120W Also Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) for Aviation under ICAO for area: Equator to 40 South 160E TO 120W

4 Nauru RSMC Nadi s Area of Responsibility for Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Intl Air Navigation Intl Marine Area Countries served with Forecasts & Warnings RSMC NADI AOR Countries served with Special Advisories

5

6 SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY SYSTEM STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT 1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3. TROPICAL CYCLONE with A) GALE intensity, - average winds knots. B) STORM intensity, - average winds knots C) HURRICANE intensity, - average winds over 63 knots. ( Usually referred to as HURRICANE ). Note: Winds averaged over 10 minutes

7 SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY SYSTEM BULLETINS SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN contains public ALERTS & WARNINGS. SPECIAL ADVISORY BULLETIN for Samoa & Vanuatu TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY Advisory on TCs & TDs TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY Summary of significant distrubances (including TCs) in region

8 SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY PHASES SYSTEM Early Information Phase (beyond 48 hrs) - provide information on TC development or movement beyond 48 hrs threat period. ALERT Phase (24-48 hrs lead time) - Alert people of possible TC threat within next hour period. WARNING Phase (within 24 hrs) - Warning for people to take precautions on impending threat within 24 hours.

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10 WARNING DISSEMINATION International - communications WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS) ICAO Aeronautical (Fixed) Telecommunication Network (AFTN) Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) Facsimile/ /Internet RAdio NETwork (RANET) ISCS/WAFS

11 WARNING DISSEMINATION National Radio (FM/AM) main means TV coverage increasing but not full. EMWIN for Disaster Management RANET in some countries e.g. Niue, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,

12

13 TC Trends

14 TC trends

15 Tropical Cyclone Activity in RSMC Nadi Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity - RSMC Nadi AOR Number '91 92'93 94'95 96'97 98'99 00'01 02'03 04'05 06'07 Season No of TCs No of Hurricanes

16 RSMC NADI AOR 2005/06 TC Season Activity Low first identified Initial tropical cyclone phase Name Date Lat. Long. Date Time Lat. Long. Tam 06 Jan 15.0 S W 12 Jan S W Urmil 13 Jan 12.8 S W 13 Jan S W Jim* 26 Jan 17.7 S E 27 Jan S E Vaianu 09 Feb 15.0 S W 11 Feb S W Wati 15 Mar 14.0 S W 19 Mar S E Maximum Intensity (knots) End of Tropical Cyclone Phase Name Date Time Lat. Long. Int. Cat. Date Time Lat. Long. Tam 13 Jan S W S W Urmil 14 Jan S W S E Jim* 30 Jan S E S W Vaianu 14 Feb S W S W Wati 22 Mar S E S W

17 RSMC NADI AOR 2005/06 TC Season Activity

18 RSMC NADI AOR 2006/07 TC Season Activity Low first identified Initial tropical cyclone phase Name Date Lat. Long. Date Time Lat. Long. Xavier 20 Oct 09.4 S E 21 Oct S E Yani 18 Nov 08.8 S E 22 Nov S E Zita 20 Jan 11.5 S W 22 Jan S W Arthur 20 Jan 12.2 S W 24 Jan S W Becky 25 Mar 12.0 S E 26 Mar S W Cliff 01 Apr 13.5 S E 04 Apr S W Maximum Intensity (knots) End of Tropical Cyclone Phase Name Date Time Lat. Long. Int Cat. Date Time Lat. Long. Xavier 24 Oct S E Oct S E Yani 23 Nov S E Nov S E Zita 23 Jan S W Jan S W Arthur 25 Jan S W Jan S W Becky 28 Mar S E Mar S E Cliff 05 Apr S W Apr S W

19 RSMC NADI AOR 2006/07 TC Season Activity

20 RSMC NADI AOR 2007/08 TC Season Activity Low first identified Initial tropical cyclone phase Name Date Lat. Long. Date Time Lat. Long. Daman 03 Dec 12.0 S W 05 Dec S E Elisa 07 Jan 18.0 S W 10 Jan S W Funa 15 Jan 16.0 S E 16 Jan S E Gene 26 Jan 11.8 S E 28 Jan S E Maximum Intensity (knots) End of Tropical Cyclone Phase Name Date Time Lat. Long. Int Cat. Date Time Lat. Long. Daman 07 Dec S E Dec S W Elisa 11 Jan S W Jan S W Funa 19 Jan S E Jan S E Gene 01 Feb S E Feb S W

21 RSMC NADI AOR 2007/08 TC Season Activity

22 RSMC NADI AOR 2008/09 TC Season Activity 2008/9 TCs No. TC Name TC Dates Peak Intst (kt) Cat Countries Affected 1 Hettie 08F Jan Tonga 2 Innis Feb New Caledonia 3 Joni Mar Southern Cooks 4 Jasper Mar New Caledonia 5 Ken Mar No land area 6 Lin Apr Tonga

23 RSMC NADI AOR 2008/09 TC Season Activity

24 T+0 RSMC Nadi Forecast Position Errors T+12 RSMC NADI FORECAST POSITION ERRORS T+24 T+36 T MEAN ERROR (KM) 2007/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /95 SEASON

25

26 TC Threat Map WARNING ALERT

27 TC FORECAST TRACK & UNCERTAINTY MAP

28 OCEANIC WARNING HURRICANE STORM GALES

29 CONSENSUS FORECAST

30 TRAINING Training Courses conducted under JICA Third Country Training Programme 5 years of training completed years training under way with last training to be conducted in Feb Submission to JICA already made for next (3-year) training programme in meteorology. Attachment Training to RSMC Nadi - From Tonga & Niue (2007) - From Samoa & Cook Is (2009) - From Vanuatu (2010?)

31 TRAINING Training of RSMC Nadi Forecasters - Secondment of Australian TC forecasters to RSMC Nadi under AusAID funding - TC module training by Australian expert. - Participation in WMO organised and coordinated training e.g. - WMO SH Training on TCs & PWS (2007, 2009) - Training organised by METEO France.

32 OTHER ACTIVITIES Severe Weather Forecast & DRR Demonstration Project (SWFDRDP) First Phase involves 4 countries: Fiji, Samoa, Solmon Is, Vanuatu RSMC Nadi-TCC to provide TC Advisory to 3-5 days. Tsunami EWS FMS/RSMC to participate in Joint Tsunami Warning Centre activities. Disaster Awareness Ongoing programme Climate Change Participation in Climate Change Awareness

33 Recent & Planned Improvements 1) FIMS Upgrade Project - Following upgrades completed: Main servers upgrade (Dec 08) Satellite receiving systems upgrade MTSAT upgrade (Mar 08) GOES upgrade (July 09) Comms Upgrade (Dec 08 July 09) HRPT upgrade (July 09) TC Module Upgrade (Mar 09) TC Module Training (July 09)

34 Recent & Planned Improvements 2) Climate Network Upgrade (on-going) 3) Outstation Upgrade (on-going) 4) Weather Radar for Fiji s Northern Division (to be completed 2010) 5) Flood Early Warning System Two rivers near completion equipment installed, comms under way. Three other rivers being considered.

35 RSMC Nadi Problems & Needs 1. Severe Staffing constraints - Training of meteorologists 3-4 per year for next 3 years Staff supplementation 2. Regular Upgrade needed to Fiji Integrated Met System (FIMS) 3. Forecasting tools needed for Storm surge and wave Heavy rainfall/flash floods 4. Limited equipment maintenance capability - Training required for electronic technicians. 5. Need for development of Multi-hazard Early Warning System. 6. RSMC Nadi website needs major upgrading to cope with user demands. This includes computer facilities to host the site and a mirror site. 7. Need to implement quality management system under way for aviation.

36 Recommended Needs 1. Meteorologist training a very high priority o o Limited Training opportunities only BOM and NZMSL Lack of scholarships a major constraint 2. Regional synoptic observation network and reporting schedule needs urgent improvement to meet required standards and increasing demands for information. 3. Improvement needed in communications for effective delivery of warnings and information Between RSMC and NMSs GTS, backup communications, EMWIN NMS to Users/Public TV & Radio broadcast, RANET, Website access, autofax, vice-recorded bulletins via telephone, marine radio broadcast.

37 Recommended Needs 5. Feedback on RSMC Nadi performance NMS encouraged to report on operational matters including warning/advisory services 6. Improved access to TC impact data & reports. NMSs to make extra efforts to collect and forward TC impact data and reports to RSMC Nadi for compilation and action to WMO 7. In-service training for meteorologists/forecasters and support staff on new observing, analysis and forecasting techniques and products 8. Regular consultation with stakeholders to determine changing user requirements and priorities for enhancement of national/regional services. 9. General education and awareness on probabilistic forecast. Consensus forecast Storm tide (consists of normal astronomical tide + storm surge + wave setup) TC Categories and corresponding effects (Australian Categories 1 to 5)

38 END OF PRESENTATION THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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