"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "

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1 "STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR " ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

2 OUTLINE Introduction The Philippine Climate Climate Trends in the Philippines Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Variability: Tropical cyclone Variability:

3 Introduction: The Philippine Archipelago Composed of 7,107 islands w/ 32,400km coastline Geographically located in Western North Pacific: Pacific ring of fire Breeding ground of tropical cyclones Philippine Climate: tropical & maritime high relative humidity high temperature (26.6 o C) abundant rainfall Population: 91,983,000

4 Climate Types based on Coronas Climate Classification Type I: Two pronounced season: dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year. Type II : No dry season with a very pronounced maximum rainfall during the month of November-December. Type III: Seasons not very pronounced, relatively dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year. Type IV: Rainfall more or less evenly distributed throughout the year.

5 MONSOONS W N S E SW monsoon or Habagat NE Monsoon or Amihan

6

7 Philippine mean temperature Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines ( ) Departures from normal values An increase of C from (60 years)

8 Maximum & Minimum Temperature Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

9 Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Hot days). Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

10 Trend in the frequency with Maximum temperature below the mean 1st percentile Cool Days Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the mean 1st percentile Cold nights

11

12

13

14

15 Objective: To study the variability of southwest monsoon rainfall in terms of intensity and distribution in time and space Data: Daily rainfall observed at 49 PAGASA synoptic stations Southwest monsoon months considered: May - September

16 ANNUAL AND SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL 30-year Normal and 10-year Mean 30-year ( ) Normal 10-year ( ) Mean

17 SW monsoon rainfall is what % of the annual rainfall? 30 Year Period 10 Year Period

18 VARIABILITY OF ANNUAL, SW & NE MONSOON RAINFALL: Annual RR Anomaly SW Monsoon RR Anomaly NE Monsoon Anomaly ENSO Occurrence: 2001 La Nina: Jan-Mar 2002 El Nino: Apr-Dec 2003 El Nino: Feb-Apr 2004 El Nino: May-Dec 2005 El Nino: Jan-Mar 2006 El Nino: Jul-Dec 2007 El Nino: Jan-Feb, La Nina: Aug-Dec 2008 La Nina: Jan-Jun 2009 El Nino: May-Dec 2010 El Nino: Jan-May, La Nina:June-Dec SWM RR not affected by El Nino ( ,2009)

19 OCEANIC NINO INDEX Historical Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 o Cfor the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, W)], calculated with respect to the base period. For historical purposes El Niño and La Niña episodes are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ La Nina: Jan-Jun 2009 El Nino: May-Dec 2010 El Nino: Jan-May, La Nina:June-Dec

20 Extreme Climate variability (ENSO of 2010) 2008 La Nina: Jan-Jun 2009 El Nino: May-Dec 2010 El Nino: Jan-May, La Nina:June-Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Nov Sept Oct Rainfall Maps Black areas: Excessive rains Red areas: rainfall deficit

21

22 Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: ( ) Visited by an average 19 to 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period is 1,641 TC and 1,154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)

23 Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: Number of Tropical Cyclones Number of Tropical Cyclones Five-year running mean Linear (Five-year running mean) y = x Year * Cinco,T.A.,2011.

24 (Cinco, 2011)

25 Trends in the Number of TC TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES Number LUZON Luzon VISAYAS Visayas MINDANAO Mindanao

26 Tracks of Tropical Cyclones that Entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for Total = 185 Crossed landmass = 60

27 Comparison of long-term mean and 10-year mean of tropical cyclone occurrence in the Philippines Mean Monthly Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Number of Tropical Cyclones year mean year mean Month

28 SUMMARY OF INITIAL OBSERVATIONAL STUDY: No big change in the 10-year mean annual rainfall compared to the 30-year normal There was an increase in rainfall in some part of western Mindanao during the 10-year SW monsoon months The SW monsoon rainfall was not highly affected by El Nino of There was an extreme variability in the ENSO event The mean number of tropical cyclones for March, April, May and September increased in the last 10 years. There was a decreased in number on the rest of the months except for November which is constant.

29 We did not inherit the Earth from our ancestors we borrowed it from our children and our children s children. Native American Philosophy From Commissioner Saño s presentation

30 THANK YOU and MABUHAY!

31 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS REFERENCES: Yeb Saño, Commissioner, Climate Change Commission, Presentation on Climate Change during the 7 th Phil. Meteorological Society Convention, Nov , Rosalina de Guzman, Asst. Weather Services Chief, PAGASA; Philippine Climate trends projections and scenarios Thelma A. Cinco, Asst. Weather Services Chief, PAGASA; Philippine Climate trends projections and scenarios

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