Storm surge modeling at JRC and Data Requirements for the GDACS System A. Annunziato Jan 2015 Deltares, Delft (NL)

Transcription

1 Storm surge modeling at JRC and Data Requirements for the GDACS System A. Annunziato Jan 2015 Deltares, Delft (NL)

2 Table of Content Why Storm Surge Modelling? The Joint Research Centre The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS - an initiative of the EC and UN) Modelling activities: Tsunami and Cyclones Cyclone modelling Results of the testing activity with ECMWF pressure/wind Forecasts Daily Bulletins creation Conclusions

3 The Joint Research Centre JRC Robust science for policy making As a Directorate-General of the European Commission, the JRC provides customer-driven scientific and technical support to EU policy making Supporting citizen s security, research on energy, environment, transport, climate change, safety of food and consumer products, security, crisis management, nuclear safety and security

4 Structure JRC Structure: 7 Institutes in 5 Member States IRMM Geel, Belgium Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements ITU Karlsruhe, Germany Institute for Transuranium Elements IE Petten, The Netherlands and Ispra, Italy Institute for Energy IPSC Ispra, Italy Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen IES Ispra, Italy Institute for Environment and Sustainability IHCP Ispra, Italy Institute for Health and Consumer Protection GlobeSec IPTS Seville, Spain Institute for Prospective Technological Studies ~ 2750 staff ~ 345 M /y institutional budget (+ 60 M /y earned income)

5 GLOBAL SECURITY AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT UNIT Support to Strengthening the Union s Resilience to Crises and Disasters and To the EU s Aim to Promote Stability and Peace EU Support Policy Areas Cohesion Policy Focus on Territorial Cohesion and related Urban policies Protection of EU budget from Fraud and other irregularities Disaster Risk Reduction and Conflict Prevention Fight against Organised Crime and Terrorism Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Public Health Security Transparent and Effective External Aid

6 Activities of the ECML Monitoring/Analysis of ongoing events Researching ICT Technologies to support Crisis Room Functionalities Benchmarking Software Testing in-house Software Situation Awareness Early Warning Systems Design of Crisis Rooms Analysis of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami March 2011 Workshops and Training courses Backup of EC Crisis Rooms ECHO/MIC - ERC DG-HOME Haiti Crisis Room of Civil Protection Workshop on mobile technologies, May2012

7 Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System Near real time monitoring of natural disasters Earthquakes Tsunamis Hurricanes, Volcanoes Floods

8 The GDACS system: alerting the humanitarian community Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) On-line early warning system for earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, volcanoes, floods Purpose Real-time alerting of humanitarian disasters world wide Sharing disaster related information Partners UN-OCHA, UNOSAT DG-ECHO Users Humanitarian aid donors: ECHO, USAID, national governments International organisations: UN OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian implementers: NGOs, national governments Operational since 2003 About users receive GDACS alerts worldwide

9 Earthquakes: is it of humanitarian concern? Population density model, vulnerability and magnitude of the disaster are taken into account The objective is to distinguish between large earthquake in unpopulated regions and smaller earthquake in higher populated areas. M 6.7 M 6.0

10 GDACS users needs detailed information on the potential impact of events Seismic parameters Authoritative domain Institution Evacuate!! Local meteo measurements Bulletin n. 1 First Responders/ Humanitarian Community Sea Level Sat. Observations Interpretation Model Socio Econo mic Vulner ability Does bulletins contain those information? GDACS Indus trial plants Should we prepare? Will be a disaster? When will struck first? Where should we go first?

11 Storm Surge Activities The following modelling activities are carried out at JRC Tsunami wave height forecast Cyclones Storm Surge

12 Tropical Cyclones in GDACS GIOVANNA 9-21 Feb 2012 Madagascar Categoria 4 (SSHS) Vmax = 232 km/h Pc = 932 mbar Winds Rainfall STORM SURGE

13 Tropical Cyclones: Storm Surge (2/2) Tropical Cyclon Monitoring Centers IRENE Hurricane Aug 2011 TC BULLETINS Track Maximum wind Wind radii WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method Vmax Wind Radii HOLLAND S MODEL PRESSURE and WIND FIELDS HyFlux2 ASGARD INUNDATION MAPS WIND INPACT ASSESMENT GDACS

14 Tropical Cyclones Online cyclones track analysis every 6 h in order to identify when the conditions for wind intensity and precipitation may lead to dangerous situations JRC Partners Pacific Disasters Center (track collection and formatting) NOAA (Tropical Rainfall Potential) JRC contribution Track Analysis Storm surge prediction Users Alerting Global Flood Detection System

15 From bulletins to pressure/winds Input: Output: Vmax, Wind radii Pc, Rmax, B, k Bulletins WIND RADII TREATMENT by a Monte Carlo Method Vmax Wind Radii Holland Model parameters: Central Pressure, Max Radius, k (B=f(Vmax,Pn,Pc)

16 Current Technique: Bulletins (G. Franchello, P. Probst, 2010) Based on the reconstruction of the pressure and wind field from the textual bulletins to follow Holland Model WTPN32 PGTW MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC time lat long vmax 64ne 64se 64sw 64nw 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw 34ne 34se 34sw 34nw notes WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.5E --- FORECASTS: LOCATION 50 knots 34 knots 25 NM 50 NM QUADRANT OF 50,34 KNOTS AND THEIR DISTANCE

17 Dp/Dx, Dp/Dy, Ux, Uy

18 Wind friction and Pressure Sp for the pressure and Su for the wind friction obtained from ECMWF 1 p S p S px, S py, waterg x p y U 2 2 Su ux uy 10 x 10 y waterg h U aircd 10x 10y S, S U, U

19 HAIYAN animation

20 GDACS pages for HAIYAN

21 Storm Surge Reporting ECMWF provides twice a day meteo forecast for the whole world Using ECMWF forecast we are now forecasting potential Storm Surge in several European areas A series of 5 continuous calculations are performed twice a day, using the conditions of the previous day (-6 h) to initialize the code 7 Word format bulletins are issued 2 times per day showing comparison of measured sea level with forecasted values for the following +72h

22 Extra Tropical Storm Surge Since end of 2013 JRC started a collaboration with ECMWF for the creation of storm surge bulletins based on their meteorological forecasts This ended with the creation of daily bulletins based on a number of storm surge calculations for selected areas; currently we have: Mediterranean Sea North Europe North Atlantic Ocean Baltic Sea From these calculations we produce a number of bulletins specific for an area or a country Agreement with National Met Agencies to improve local predictions: Italian Air Force Met Office (IAF) Hellenic National Meteorological Center (HNMS) Portuguese Air and Sea Agency (IPMA)

23 Fixed calculations Fixed calculations can provide an important piece of information to Meteorological Agencies It is possible to complement local calculations with local, higher resolution weather forecasts and use these fixed calculations as boundary conditions to the local calculations Difficulty to establish a track movement for a non tropical cyclone Assimilation technique for sea level calculations?

24 4(+1 COSMO-AM) Fixed continuous Storm Surge calculations and 6 bi-daily bulletins produced UK 1 4 Baltic Sea North Sea 2 Greece Italy Mediterranean (ECMWF and COSMO-AM) 3 North Atlantic

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26 Calculation strategy ECMWF Worldwide Meteo data Present on ftp site (MSLP, Vx, Vy) Extract Boundary Conditions for each required window - Fixed window - Active Cyclones Run HyFlux2 Code Post-Processing Creation of animations Bulletins creation Web publishing COSMO data Mediterranean Sea from Italian Air Force Calculations Atlantic Sea from Istituto Porguguese do Mare e da Atmosfera (IPMA) Other

27 Daily summary of Max Storm Surge per country

28 Use of available webcams in order to show the sea level measurements, compared with the forecasted values and the real situation of the sea in that location Storm Surge continuous modelling with bulletin production is still a pilot phase at JRC but we received several demonstration of interest by Member States Met Agencies Possibility to test the system by online subscribing to the bulletins In the future this could be integrated by including various available sea level forecasts in the bulletins

29 Meta language for bulletins creation The color scheme can be changed to respect local requirements

30 Storm Surge web site Summary of daily forecasts Login to register and receive bulletins (open at the moment, no moderation) Calculations archive Modelling description

31 Global Sea Level Overview for operators

32 Xavier storm December 2013

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34 Wind speed: Altimetry and Models JRC Hyflux2 Model Slide: 34 Cyclone Xaver seen by SARAL/AltiKa EUM/RSP/VWG/14/756175

35 HELG: Storm surge and induced vertical deformation Slide: 35 Cyclone Xaver seen by SARAL/AltiKa EUM/RSP/VWG/14/756175

36 GDACS requirements Scatterometers Combined wind field Wind radii from scatterometers Min pressure and pressure profile across eye Altimetry Expected altimeter passes Quick processing of sea level for TWL and SS Visualization Quicker viewer More possibilities to filter

37 Proposal for discussion ERCC will launch a project for supporting their operational activities in a number of disaster fields First pilot project on Tsunami Storm Surge Earthquakes It would be useful to create a common Storm Surge daily bulletin combining All national forecasts Measured Sea and Wind Possibly satellite data (scatterometers, altimetry) Example: Italy ensemble bulletin

38 Bulletin ensemble examples Daily bulletins with several storm surge forecasts compared with previous measured values. It can be important to estimate the possible uncertainties in the meteorological/hydraulic coupling Forcing: Kassandra Storm Surge: Kassandra Forcing: ECMWF Storm Surge: JRC Forcing: COSMO-AM Storm Surge: JRC Forcing: ECMWF Storm Surge: JR DATA Forcing: COSMO-AM Storm Surge: JRC

39 Conclusions JRC is providing online storm surge calculations for every Tropical Cyclone occurring worldwide The use of parameters derived from esurge analyses can strongly improve the quality of the forecasts JRC Storm Surge Calculations represent an important support for many groups but the quality needs to be continuously verified with sea level measurements It would be very useful, in view of Scientific Partnership among main Institutions, to have a systematic comparison of sea levels estimations through a combined storm surge daily report that could compare the forecasts with measured sea levels ERCC will soon launch a Pilot Project for a scientific support that will include also Storm Surge as one of the 3 Natural Disasters events; the above activity, that could start informally could then be included in the project

40 Thanks!