WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate Preliminary conclusions for 2018 and WMO Greenhouse Bulletin

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1 WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate Preliminary conclusions for 2018 and WMO Greenhouse Bulletin Dr Elena Manaenkova Deputy Secretary General World Meteorological Organisation

2 Statement on the State of the Global Climate Complements IPCC Assessment Reports and Special Reports Includes assessment from the annual WMO Greenhouse Bulletins on atmospheric concentrations of LL GHG complements UN Environment annual GAP Report on Emissions Since Annual updates on key climate climate indicators of changing conditions of the state of the climate; includes multy-year (5 and 10 years) trends Provides a snap shot on key climate indicators and extreme events with historical and geographical context Allows analysis of climate change signals separated more clearly from natural modes of variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Final release in March 2019

3 Lead experts (12) Main contributors Member States direct contributions through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (64) International specialized institutions (17) United Nations organisations (7) Structure of the Statement Key Climate Indicators Climate risks and associated impacts

4 Key Climate Indicators Key Climate Indicators Global temperature (change from pre-industrial period) Greenhouse gases - CO2 (ppm, atmospheric concentration) ± 0.1 ppm (2017) - CO2 (rate of increase) 2.2 ppm/yr (2016) Annual year year year Other 0.98 ±0.12 C 1.04±0.09 C 0.93±0.07 C 0.87 C 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 four warmest years ppm ( ) 2.5 ppm/yr ( ) ppm ( ) 2.2 ppm/yr ( ) ppm. ( ) 2.1 ppm/yr ( ) Cryosphere Sea Ice (vs ) - March Arctic sea ice extent change % -7.4% -6.7% -5.2% -3.9% CO2, CH4 and N2O also highest on record - September Arctic Sea ice change % -27.7% -26.6% -27.5% -25.1% - September Antarctic Sea ice change % -4.8% -2.1% -0.6% +0.9% Sea Level - Global average rate/year n/a 4.5±0.3 mm/yr 4.6±0.15 mm/yr 3.8±0.1 mm/yr 3.1±0.1 mm/yr ( ) - Total change since mm 70 mm (2015) 60 mm (2014) 42mm (2009) - SE-Asia rate per year 4.5±0.4 mm/yr ( ) - Caribbean rate per year 2.9±0.2 mm/yr ( ) Ocean heat content meters (10 22 J wrt ) st /2 nd highest each qtr meters (10 22 J wrt ) st/2 nd highest each qtr Ocean acidification

5 Global Temperature warmest 5 & 10 years 5 years: : 1.04 ± 0.09 C 10 years: : 0.93 ± 0.07 C

6 Global Temperature - 4 th warmest year 0.98 ± 0.12 C above set to be 4 th warmest year on record The 4 warmest years on record are the last 4 ( )

7 Warmest La Niña year

8 Surface air temperature anomaly Jan-Oct 2018

9 Source: WMO Greenhouse Bulletin No. 14, November 2018 Greenhouse gas levels reach new record CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O 2017 global abundance ± 0.1 ppm ± 2 ppb ± 0.1 ppb 2017 abundance relative to absolute increase relative increase Mean annual absolute increase of last 10 years 146 % 257 % 122 % 2.2 ppm 7 ppb 0.9 ppb 0.55 % 0.38 % 0.27 % 2.24 ppm yr ppb yr ppb yr -1

$Globally averaged mole fraction (a) and its growth rate$ from 1984 to 2017 (b).

10 Greenhouse gas levels reach new record CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Globally averaged mole fraction (a) and its growth rate from 1984 to 2017 (b). Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (b). The red line in (a) is the monthly mean with the seasonal variation removed. The blue dots in and line depict the monthly averages.

11 Sea Ice well below average Arctic March max million km 2, 7% below average ( ), record low first 2 month Sea ice extent (% of ) March Arctic Sea Ice Extent % from average Year Arctic September min 4.62 million km 2, 28% below average 12 smallest in last 12 yrs Sea ice extent (% of ) September Arctic Sea Ice Extent % from average Year

12 Sea Level Rising Data from ESA CCI, CMEMS and AVISO GMSL Jan - Jul 2018: 2-3 mm higher than the same period in 2017

13 Ocean Heat Increases Each 3-month period in 2018 (to September 2018) upper 700m (data from 1955) and 2000m (from 2005) were

14 Ocean Acidification Increases Open-ocean sources over the last 30 years have shown a clear trend of decreasing ph Credit: Richard Feely (NOAA- PMEL) and Marine Lebrec (IAEA OA-ICC)

convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events Climatological events (Flood, mass movement) (Extreme temperature, drought, forest

15 Extreme events worldwide No. events growing Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events Climatological events (Flood, mass movement) (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Source: NatCatService.munichre.com 700 disasters/year (2017) Accounted events have caused at least one fatality and/or produced normalized losses US$ 100k, 300k, 1m, or 3m (depending on the assigned World Bank income group of the affected country).

16 Natural Disasters - last 20 years 90.6 % weather related Source: UN ISDR & CRED: October 16

17 4.5 Billion people affected last 20 years 96 % weather related Source: UN ISDR & CRED: October 17

18 Climate Risks and Associated Impacts

19 Every life matters Extreme weather left a trail of devastation on all continents and led to many casualties Over at least excess deaths associated with heat waves, more than 100 with the wildfires A historically significant heatwave affected parts of East Asia in late July and early August. The worst-hit area was Japan. A national record of 41.1 C was set at Kumagaya on 23 July. Over 150 deaths in Japan were associated with the heat. A wildfire to the northeast of San Francisco, known as The Camp Fire, is the deadliest fire in over a century for the U.S. and, in terms of property loss, the most destructive on record for California. There have been at least 79 fatalities. Large parts of western Japan experienced destructive flooding in late June and early July. At least 230 deaths were reported and houses were destroyed. In August, the southwest Indian state of Kerala suffered major flooding, reportedly the worst since deaths were reported and more than 5.4 million were affected.

20 Socio-economic impacts Heavy humanitarian consequences: In Madagascar, the number of people affected by food insecurity increased to 1.3 million in southern regions Over 2 million people were reported to be displaced in association with extreme weather and climate events Vulnerable Rohingya refugees severely affected: As of September 2018, up to refugees were exposed heightened risk of landslides and flooding. Large economic losses: Exceptional drought in Europe and southern America. 43% crop losses in Germany relative to the average, likely to be costed in the billions of euros Florence and Michael the most significant hurricane landfalls on the United States mainland in 2018 with heavy economic losses. Typhoon Manghkut/Ompong, which crossed the Philippines in mid- September was associaed with agricultural losses that could reach at least US$ 265 million. Gita in the South Pacific in February 2018 was the most intense tropical cyclone ever to affect Tonga causing severe damage. Significant damage

2018 REVIEW OF DISASTER EVENTS

2018 REVIEW OF DISASTER EVENTS Supplementary Information* BRUSSELS, 24 January, 2019 In 2018, there were 281 climate-related and geophysical events recorded in the EM-DAT (International Disaster Database)