Workshop on hydrological modelling, forecasting and warnings

Transcription

1 WMO RAVI Hydrological Forum 2016 Workshop on hydrological modelling, forecasting and warnings 20 September 2016, Oslo, Norway Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) Middelthunsgate 29, Oslo, Norway 1

2 Programme 08:00 08:30 Arrival of the participants/registration 08:30 08:40 Welcome/Opening of the Workshop 08:40 10:30 Session1: "Hydrological forecasting, warning and communication with end users 10:30 11:00 Break 11:00 12:40 Session 2: "Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling, Forecasting and Warning" 12:40 13:40 Lunch 13:40 15:30 Session 3: Flash Floods and Urban Floods 15:30 16:00 Break 16:00 17:00 Discussions and questions 17:00 17:30 Closing remarks 2

3 Session 1: "Hydrological forecasting, warning and communication with endusers Chair: Eric Sprokkereef (the Netherlands), co chair Maria Concepcion Garcia Gomez (Spain) 08:40 08:45 Introduction: E. Sprokkereef 08:45 09:00 Meteoalarm, new challenges of preparing and dissemination of warnings and cooperation with national or regional hydrological services Michael Staudinger, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria 09:00 09:15 EFAS: European Flood Awareness System from research to operations. A probabilistic pan European flood early warning system providing national water authorities with information on probabilities of early flood warnings for large river basins with a medium range lead time Eric Sprokkereef, Rijkswaterstaat Water Management Center for the Netherlands 09:15 09:30 Communication between service providers and Disaster Risk Management during the disastrous May 2014 flood in the Sava River basin Enes Alagic Sava River Watershed Agency Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 09:30 09:45 Norwegian Flood and landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service Hervé Colleuille, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Norway 09:45 10:00 Hydrological modelling in the Serbian Hydromet Service; Atmospheric hydrology model coupling. Examples of flash flood prediction and regional climate assessment of water balance Goran Pejanovic, Hydro meteorological Service of Serbia 10:00 10:15 Towards impact based warnings; examples from ARISTOTLE project and the Swedish pilot study on impact based warnings Richard Wylde, SMHI 10:15 10:30 HEPEX: Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. An international initiative bringing together hydrologists, meteorologists, researchers and end users to develop advanced probabilistic hydrological forecast techniques for improved flood, drought and water management Albrecht Weerts or Jan Verkade, Deltares, The Netherlands 10:30 11:00 Break 3

4 Session 2: "Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling, Forecasting and Warning" Chair: Emmanuel Roulin (Belgium), co chair Ayhan Sayin (WMO) 11:00 11:05 Introduction: E. Roulin 11:05 11:25 Challenges of remote sensing for hydrology: the SMOS and the SWOT missions, Dr. Selma Cherchali, CNES (Centre national d'études spatiales) France 11:25 11:40 H SAF, from products to end users, Francesco Zauli (Italian Air Force Meteorological Service, Rome, Italy). Overview of the EUMETSAT project Satellite Application Facility on Support to operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF), products, product validation programme, availability to end users. 11:40 11:55 H SAF hydro validation programme, Dr. Michal Kasina, IMGW (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Krakow, Poland). Overview of the programme, common tasks and specific applications for the different products. Case studies. 11:55 12:10 Satellite products and the Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System, Ayhan Sayin, WMO. Quick overview of the system. How satellite derived products are used in BSMEFFGS. Case studies. 12:10 12:25 Improved hydrological forecasting through the systematic assimilation of satellite Earth Observation derived flood extent maps, Dr. Patrick Matgen, LIST (Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology) 12:25 12:40 LSA SAF evapotranspiration products and on going research at RMI, Dr. Françoise Meulenberghs, RMI (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium). Remote sensing exploitation for evapotranspiration assessment and operational products developments. 12:40 13:40 Lunch 4

5 Session 3: Flash Floods and Urban Floods Chair: Ayhan Sayin (WMO), co chair Peter Salamon (JRC) Hydrometeorological hazards, including flash floods, landslides, and urban flash flooding are major causes of the human losses and property damages across the World. It is anticipated that intensity and frequency of the flash flood events across the globe and in the region may increase due to climate variability and change. Flash floods are caused by heavy rainfall with short duration associated mostly with depressions, convective and tropical storms. Within the scope of WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative, the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) with Global Coverage has been jointly developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), with the support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to mitigate the impacts of flash floods by enhancing early warning capabilities at regional and national levels. It currently covers fifty two countries and more than two billion people saving lives and decreasing economic losses, including South East Europe Flash Flood Guidance (SEEFFG) System and Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance (BSMEFFG) System. 13:40 13:45 Introduction: Ayhan Sayin 13:45 14:00 Review of FFGS with global coverage (Mr. Ayhan Sayin) 14:00 14:15 Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System (Mr. Yusuf Ulupinar) 14:15 14:30 South East Europe Flash Flood Guidance System (Mr. Bo Terek, Croatia) 14:30 14:45 Flash Flood forecasting and early warning in Slovenia (Mr. Petan Saso) 14:45 15:00 Flash Flood Forecasting and Early Warnings in Romania (Mr Marius Matreata) 15:00 15:15 Intense precipitation and high resolution flood forecasting: a collaborative project between SMHI, MSB (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency), SGI (Swedish Geotechnical Institute) and Karlstad University (Mr Jonas Olsson, SMHI) 15:15 15:30 Devastating Flash Flood events in Georgia in June 2015 (Mr Irakli Megrelidze ) 15:30 16:00 Break 16:00 17:00 Discussion and questions 17:00 17:30 Closing remarks 5