IBTrACS: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Put your title here too

Transcription

1 IBTrACS: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Put your title here too 1

2 The IBTrACS Players Ken Knapp, Paula Hennon, Michael Kruk, Howard Diamond, Ethan Gibney, Carl Schreck NOAA s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Tropical cyclone frequency & intensity - TCS22 1 2

3 Need for a global best track archive Used for many industries: Building codes for coastal zones Risk assessment Insurance loss analysis Climate change research Needed for satellite analysis Complete record of pressure and wind needed. No pressure in the Western Pacific if just JTWC is used. Many basins have more than one source of data No single one-stop-shop for a global data set exists

4 Providing tropical cyclone best track data in a centralized location to aid our understanding of the distribution, frequency, and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide MISSION

5 Frequency Measuring TC activity Simple count in each ocean basin over some time period Count of TC? TS? Major TC? Counted how? Over what time period? 5

6 Intensity Measuring TC activity Maximum sustained wind (MSW) US: 10 minute averaged wind speed in kt Others: 1-minute average wind speed in kt Minimum central pressure (MCP) lower pressure = more intense no good way to measure! 6

7 Measuring TC Frequency & Intensity pre near-shore observations & ship logs aircraft & naval reconnoissance satellites - 9 km present 9 satellites - 4 km activity 7

8 International Many nations and agencies working together Best Track Information on tropical cyclones Enormous impact on life and property worldwide Archive One-stop-shop Climate Global distribution Cyclone intensity Temporal variability Stewardship What is IBTrACS? Maintaining data for future generations

9 IBTrACS Fundamentals What IBTrACS is Collection Combination Collaboration Centralization Scalable Officially recognized by the WMO IBTrACS is not a global reanalysis!

10 Data providers: IBTrACS: Who we are RSMCs: CPHC, IMD, JMA, La Reunion, Nadi, NHC TCWCs: BoM, Wellington Other: HKO, JTWC, CMA/STI At NCDC: IBTrACS Team Around the world: Many others providing input

11 IBTrACS process Collect data Unify format Quality checks of data Identify unique storms Normalize wind speeds Combine data Position Wind Pressure Nature

12 Best Track formats NCDC TD JMA DOLPHIN BoM 1,614,1906,1,,S,, ,,,,130,1465,,994,,,WW,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,11,1907,1,17,23,0,01/17/ :00:00,,,, ,6244 2,614,1906,1,,S,, ,,,,150,1450,,993,,,WL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,27,13,1907,1,18,23,0,01/18/ :00:00,1440,,,2520, ,614,1906,1,,S,, ,,,,140,1430,,993,,,LL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30,4,1907,1,19,23,0,01/19/ :00:00,1440,,,2160,2282 CPHC 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-C,,,,,,,,, 08/15 / 1800,13.6,151,1009,30,,,,, 16 / 0000,13.9,152.9,1009,30,",,,, 16 / 0600,14.2,154.4,1009,30,",,,, CMA/STI Dolphin IMD 04/05/1990,0000, 8.5,87.0,1.0,1006, 16, 2,,1006,7, 04/05/1990,0600, 8.5,87.0,1.5,1002, 25, 4,,1006,10, 04/05/1990,1200, 9.5,87.0,1.5,1000, 25, 4,,1004,5, Reunion Old Format xxxx xxxx xxxx Reunion New WMO Format 11SWI SWI SWI HKO TCNAME YYYYMMDDHH(UTC) INTENSITY RITA TD RITA TD RITA TD Neumann, HURDAT 00005T07/15/1960 M= 7 1 SNBR= 1 HSK0161 BSH0161 JTWC&NCDC /15 * T 25E * T 25E /16* T 20E * T 20E * T 25E * T 25E /17* T 25E * T 25E * T 25E * T 25E /18* T 30E * T 30E * T 30E * T 30E Nadi NAME YYYY MM DD HHHH LAT LONG PRES W(KT) Catergory ========================= ======================= DAMAN Tropical Depression (TD) Phase DAMAN DAMAN JTWC ATCF format WP, 12, ,, BEST, 0, 224N, 1343E, 15, 1010, DB, 0,, 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 12, ,, BEST, 0, 226N, 1335E, 15, 1010, DB, 0,, 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 12, ,, BEST, 0, 231N, 1328E, 15, 1006, DB, 0,, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, W, 0,, 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 12, ,, BEST, 0, 237N, 1325E, 15, 1006, DB, 0,, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, W, 0,, 0, 0, INVEST, S, Wellington Name,Year,Month,Day,Time,Lat,Lon,PPP,Max,Prog GISELE,1968,4,3,0000,8,156.4,1002,25,H+000 GISELE,1968,4,3,1200,7.4,157.6,1002,25,H+000 GISELE,1968,4,4,0000,7,159,1002,25,H+000 Diamond HD , T00:00:00.0, , , 1 HD , T00:00:00.0, , , 2 HD , T00:00:00.0, , , 3

13 Combining multiple sources Number of agencies best tracking each storm

14 Track & Intensity Discrepancies Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife and Plants 14

15 Interagency Differences Range in wind speed (kt) Relative range (%)

16 IBTrACS Merging Position Pressure Wind Speed Track of 1992 Typhoon Yvette

17 IBTrACS: By the numbers 14 sources 25,996+ total tracks 500,000+ observations ~11000 storms 5298 TC with MSW>

18 Application: Interactive Storm Mapping Blue = 141 tracks within 1 deg of Guam Red = 16 passing within 1 deg of Taiwan

19 Application: Merging Satellite with IBTrACS 2003 Typhoon Lupit

20 Application: Prioritize Reanalysis Maximum intensity? Accumulated uncertainty! ΔMSW = 87 kt Western North Pacific Year Name 1951 Marge 1952 Bess 1954 June 1959 Tilda 1969 Ida Max MSW ( kt) = = = = = 56 Δ ACE(10 4 kt 2 ) ΔPDI (10 6 kt 3 ) Annual PDI ~ 150

21 Planned improvements

22 Version 3 (Spring 2010)

23 IBTrACS Data Formats Multiple intensities possible netcdf CSV One intensity per report WMO HURDAT ATCF cxml GIS shapefile Ver. 1 Ver. 2 Mean position Mean intensity Mean position Mean intensity Original positions & intensity Mean position JAOT Mean intensity Kruk et al., 2010 Mean position BAMS Mean intensity Knapp el al., 2010 Ver. 3 Original positions & intensity Other parameters as available WMO position WMO intensity In prep.

24 Parameter summary From all agencies Time, Latitude, longitude Wind & Pressure Cyclone type From some agencies Wind radii (5) Radius of Maximum Winds (4) Radius of outermost closed isobar (3) Pressure of outermost closed isobar (2) Dvorak Parameters: T-num and CI (2)

25 User needs IBTrACS requested users to identify their needs Results Storm size information RMW, Wind radii, ROCI Higher temporal resolution More the just 6 hourly Landfall, maximum intensity, etc.

26 First comprehensive global Best Track dataset Combines data from RSMCs, TCWCs, JTWC, etc. Scalable to include new datasets Provides statistical analysis for users: Quality flags, statistical variance, and range of values for wind and pressure from all sources Most complete set of cyclones available IBTrACS has > 200 additional storms when sources other than JTWC and HURDAT are included Routinely updated Semi-annual updates Summary Available in numerous formats: netcdf, NOAA Tape, WMO, cxml, CSV, WFS, WMS

27 IBTrACS 27

28 Extra stuff 28

29 Interagency differences: North Indian Ocean

30 Interagency differences: South Indian Ocean through time

31 Interagency differences: Western Pacific Ocean

32 Interagency differences: Western Pacific Ocean through time

33 Interagency differences: South Pacific Ocean

34 Interagency differences: South Pacific Ocean through time

35 Have we observed a change in tropical cyclone activity that exceeds the variability we would expect from natural causes? Tropical cyclone frequency & intensity - TCS22 35

36 Global Tropical Storm Frequency ( )...likely that the global frequency of TCs will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged... Knutson et al., Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience, 21 Feb

37 Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency Basin-wide major hurricane counts show a significant rising trend, but we judge these data as unreliable before aircraft reconnaissance before 1944 ( ) We have very low confidence in projected changes in individual basins. Knutson et al., Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience, 21 Feb

38 Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency ( ) 38

39 Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency ( ) 39

40 Average MSW of all TCs within 55 km of any grid point El Niño ( ) Tropical cyclone frequency & intensity - TCS22

41 Average MSW of all TCs within 55 km of any grid point La Niña ( ) Tropical cyclone frequency & intensity - TCS22

42 Average MSW of all TCs within 55 km of any grid point: 1970 s 42

43 Average MSW of all TCs within 55 km of any grid point: 1980 s 43

44 Average MSW of all TCs within 55 km of any grid point: 1990 s 44

45 Location at which storms are named (MSW>= 35 kt)

46 Mean Storm motion (arrows) and speed (color kts)

47 Mean Storm motion (arrows) and speed (color kts) El Niño

48 Mean Storm motion (arrows) and speed (color kts) La Niña

49 Global Mean Storm motion (arrows) and speed (color kts)