Introduction forecast Procedure of National Typhoon Center / KMA

Transcription

1 The 6 th China-Korea Joint Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (26 May-1 June, 2013) Introduction forecast Procedure of National Typhoon Center / KMA Lee, Jae-shin(jaeshin_l@yahoo.com) National Typhoon Center(NTC) Korea Meteorological Administration May

2 Typhoon forecast production process Position of the typhoon center Analysis Go past the route determination(6-12houres) Determine the strength of typhoon & max. wind speed Determine the radius of typhoon winds(15m/s, 25m/s wind radius) Forecast Course of typhoon (direction and rate of progression)forecast Typhoon intensity(central pressure, max. wind speed near the center)forecast Size of Typhoon forecast Notified 통보 Production & advice typhoon 2

3 Typhoon forecast production process Weather associated with the typhoon forecasts linked Newsflash (More than 80 organizations, including the fax notified) KMA Occasional Forecast Discussion (video, telephone) Relevant agencies NTC Course of typhoon strength a nd production forecasts Press Nationals 3

4 Typhoon forecast production process Analysis. Satellite Heat index Radar Anl. 4

5 Introduction of NTC/KMA main task 1 Typhoon monitoring Watching of Typhoon formation - Genesis: Satellite Image, Wind Shear, Synoptic - Enhancing/Weakening: Synoptic, SST, OHC, Wind Shear - Extratropical Transition: SST, Max. Wind Speed, Satellite Comparison with analysis results produced by other countries - RSMC Tokyo and JTWC Hawaii Comprehensive determination for Typhoon formation Notifying of Typhoon warning to the main government divisions 5

6 Introduction of NTC/KMA main task 2 Typhoon forecast NTC/KMA Analysis on similar typhoon cases - Track, Synoptic, Intensity Forecast of typhoon track, scale and intensity - Track: Synoptic, model simulated results - Scale and intensity: OHC, SST, Land roughness, jet Discussion with the KMA headquarter and decision Production of typhoon forecast report 6

7 TAPS System to produce the information report of typhoon forecast 7

8 History the client the TAPS DAY Forecast TD Forecast English version 2012 forecasts, multi-environment configuration DYTRAP linkage 5-Day Forecast consolidated operating Install the English version of Vietnam TAPSE 2011 November TAPS2s Services November diversification model information January forecasts TD onset (internal TAPS TAPS 2010 TAPS November TAPS2 Services Replace the engine map November November intensity forecasts, menu creation July 5-day forecast inception (No.2 kkonseon) TAPS The last typhoon TAPS-2 December 2008 to the client Forecast (No. 22 Dolphins) November TAPS-2 version Notice the start of production 05. (NEW)TAPS Web-based C/S version of TAPS development Project Name: itaps 3-Day Forecast TAPS Java applications 8

9 Position determination of TY Typhoon position is determined by reference to AMV, Radar, Satellite, JTWC also put the present typhoon position manually Position red mark the information of latitude and longitude is stored 9

10 Track Forecast 4 kinds of functions for track forecast - Net-matrix / Package Weight / Multi-Ensemble / Manual Track weight is applied equally about all models the weight values that user set are applied for all forecast time the weight application table in the order of forecast performance 10

11 Search the similar typhoons The past similar typhoons are searched within the territory of 5x5 from the central position. 11

12 Weather Chart Overlap can load its relevant data cv Select a map and time weather chart SST Surface height 500hPa height 300hPa height 850 stream line Satellite data... 12

13 Intensity Forecast Intensity Intensity Forecast Panel Forecast Time Central Pressure When users choose one data of the models and centers, the forecast data of typhoon central pressure are displayed 13

14 Radius Determination determines the radii/ exceptional radii/ exceptional directions of 15m/s and 25m/s The radius on the typhoon is determined in the relevant AMV image data. Radius Distance comparison bar red inverted triangle sets the radius the exceptional radius and the exceptional direction. 14

15 Forecast Report distance btw TY position and specific area Final Report Forecast Report activated when the Report Save on Server notices are saved When the operation of notices is finished 15

16 Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast system in NTC/KMA Guidance system for realtime monitoring the formation of typhoon in the Pacific Northwest 16

17 TCAF(Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast) Flowchart for TCAF Search for TD (00,06,12,18UTC) Y TD Subdivided analysis of 10 factors about searched TD Determination of TD development possibility about LOW, Medium, High at 00h and +24 h Graphic by using NCAR N Upgraded in 2010 based on TFOG Data - UM GDPS(N512) ERLY, - NCEP SST Subdivide 10 factors of TFOG The standard to search for TD Latitude < 40 N above 2.0E-5/sec vorticity at 850 hpa below 1010 hpa mean sea level pressure above 5 m/s wind at 850 hpa 17

18 TFOG(Tropical FOrmation Guidance) Flowchart for TFOG Search for TD (00,06,12,18UTC) TD N Y Analysis of 10 factors about searched TD Determination of TD development Graphic by using GrADS developed in 2006 run operationally August in 2006 Data - UM GDPS(N512) ERLY, - NCEP SST The standard to search for TD Latitude < 40 N above 2.0E-5/sec vorticity at 850 hpa below 1010 hpa mean sea level pressure above 5 m/s wind at 850 hpa 18

19 DYTRAP Dynamic data-base typhoon TRack Prediction 19

20 DYTRAP Provide career guidance forecast NTC forecasts and models building the database Find similar course of the past Typhoon Model-specific performance evaluation Production weighted average consensus 20

21 NTC Typhoon 5-Day Forecast Extra-Tropical decision Flow chart of Extra-Tropical transition analysis 21

22 Thank you very much for your attention!!! 22