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1 Identification of Predictors for Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan Part II: Storm Characteristics and Nowcasting Applications Challenges in Developing Nowcasting Applications for Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan Rita Roberts and James Wilson National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO 3 rd WMO/WWRP Int l Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 6 August 2012
2 Taiwan Central Weather Bureau AutoNowcaster System Forecaster Input Data Sets Radar WSR-88D Satellite Mesonet Profiler Sounding Numerical Model Lightning 368 townships Analysis Algorithms Predictor Fields In July 2011 we installed the AutoNowcaster system, providing: Final Prediction Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field -1 hr storm initiation, growth and decay nowcasts - gridded nowcasts updated every 6 min -Long-term goal: Locationspecific nowcasts of heavy rainfall for the 368 townships
3 TiMREX : Terrain-influenced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment May-June 2008 Taiwan NCAR S-Pol (dual-polarization ) Doppler radar Dropsonde locations, 4-5 June 2008 Vertical profiling instruments at Super Site 3-hourly sounding launches 400+ raingauge & surface stations South China Sea dropsondes per misson
4 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Locally-Driven Weather Foothills: Recurring storm initiations and storm mergers over same regions of elevated terrain. Coastal: Continual storm initiation above sea breeze Plains Foothills Plains: Storm initiation and storm mergers above convergence boundaries
5 Foothills: Recurring Storm Initiation/Storm Mergers Over Elevated Terrain Plots of Diurnal Storm Tracks Wind Speed Wind Direction 50 mm 70 mm ML: mb Steering Level 23 May May 2008 BL: mb 25.5 mm 83.5 mm 7 June June mm 49.5 mm 18 June June 2008
6 Coastal: Continual storm initiation above sea breeze Plains: Storm initiation and mergers above convergence boundaries Sea Breeze West-to-East Storm Trains Under modest steering winds, recurring initiation above the sea breeze led to propagation of storm trains to foothills, and localized heavy rain. 62 mm accum. 26 May 2008 Localized heavy rainfall occurred when gust-front triggered storms merged together or backbuilt under weak-modest steering level winds. 1 June 2008
7 Membership functions modified within the Taiwan Autonowcaster 17 July UTC Storm Area (km 2 ) New thresholds set for storms more likely to produce heavy rainfall. 1 Interest Storm Area Frequency of Recurring Storm Initiation Storm Growth Rate (km hr -1 ) Interest Storm Growth Rate 1 Output fields from the TITAN storm tracking algorithm Interest Number of Storm Initiations
8 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Synoptically-Driven Weather Front (cold season) Mei-Yu Front (spring) Waves of Convective Storms Maximum raingauge accum: 65 mm Southwesterly (southern) monsoon MesoscaleConvective System (MCS)/ Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Short-wave Trough Typhoons Easterly Wave May 2008
9 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Synoptically-Driven Weather Front (cold season) Mei-Yu Front (spring) Convective Bands & Foothills Initiation Maximum raingauge accum: 114 mm Southwesterly (southern) monsoon MesoscaleConvective System (MCS)/ Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Short-wave Trough Typhoons Easterly Wave Short-WaveTrough: 22 May 2008
10 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Synoptically-Driven Weather Front (cold season) Mei-Yu Front (spring) Maximum raingauge accum: 168 mm Convective Bands Southwesterly (southern) monsoon MesoscaleConvective System (MCS)/ Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Short-wave Trough Typhoons Easterly Wave Mei-Yu Front: 31 May 2008
11 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Synoptically-Driven Weather Front (cold season) Mei-Yu Front (spring) Maximum raingauge accum: 152 mm Convective Bands Southwesterly (southern) monsoon MesoscaleConvective System (MCS)/ Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Short-wave Trough Typhoons Easterly Wave SW Monsoon/MCS: 2 June 2008
12 Scenarios Leading to Heavy Rainfall Synoptically-Driven Weather Front (cold season) Mei-Yu Front (spring) Convective Bands & Local Initiation Maximum raingauge accum: 97 mm Southwesterly (southern) monsoon MesoscaleConvective System (MCS)/ Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Short-wave Trough Typhoons Easterly Wave Mei-Yu Front/MCS: 14 June 2008
13 Challenges in Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall Need to be able to nowcast those convective bands that will intensify as they move onshore
14 Challenges in Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall Offshore Onshore 1-2 June 20 UTC 00 UTC Convective Bands Widespread Stratiform What causes these differences?? Can we predict these changes in precipitation intensity? 2 June 00 UTC 04 UTC Convective Bands Intensification
15
16 Challenges in Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall Need to be able to nowcast those convective bands that will intensify as they move onshore o Do we have sufficient observations to detect and predict these subtle changes in atmospheric stability? No!! o Are there other important factors that we are not routinely observing/measuring?
17 23:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 2 mm China 00:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 6 mm Taiwan Mei-yu front 01:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 16 mm Mei-Yu Front and MCV Kaohsiung, Taiwan 5 June :00 UTC Kaohsiung: 21 mm South China Sea MCV locations Foothills 03:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 34 mm 04:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 56 mm 05:00 UTC Kaohsiung: 125 mm Rainrate: 5:00-5:30 UTC mm h -1 Subsequent Accumulations: 06:00 UTC 202 mm 07:00 UTC 217 mm 08:00 UTC 226 mm
18 TiMREX : Terrain-influenced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment May-June 2008 NCAR S-Pol (dual-polarization ) Doppler radar Dropsonde locations, 4-5 June 2008 Vertical profiling instruments at Super Site 3-hourly sounding launches 400+ raingauge & surface stations dropsondes per misson
19 Offshore Convergence Boundaries Important 5 June :00 UTC Heavy rainfall associated with well-defined, shallow ( 1 km deep) boundary located near the coast. Due to extremely moist upstream, unstable air, boundaries appear to have strong influence on convection initiation or intensification near the coast. Reflectivity and dropsonde data at 06:00 UTC on 5 June Virtual temperature in tenths of deg C contoured in 1 deg contour intervals. Can be long-lived due to presence of cool downdrafts and absence of diurnal heating over land under cloudy conditions. Davis, C. A., and W.-C. Lee, 2011: Mesoscale analysis of heavy rainfall episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX. J. Atmos. Sci.
20 Challenges in Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall Need sufficient observations to detect subtle changes in temperature and shallow, long-lived convergence. How can we do this with no observations over the water?
21 VDRAS Temperature perturbation Field (shaded) and horizontal winds km AGL 10 hr loop: 18:30 04:41 UTC Green/blue shades: Cooling trend Browns/gold shades: Warming trend Jenny Sun and Zhuming Ying
22 How to identify shallow convergence boundaries and temperature gradients offshore? Need to use VDRAS winds and temperature perturbation field. Need to utilize Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Install a network of buoy stations. Buoy Station
23 Challenges in Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall Need to document the attributes of the different weather regimes Collaborating with Luca Panziera of MeteoSwiss to test NORA (Nowcasting Orographic Rainfall using Analogs) on 7 years of Taiwan data. Tropical Convective Structures Need to monitor areal extent of storms and storm growth and dissipation rates Need to be able to predict regions storm mergers (LeMone et al 1998; Johnson and Bresch, 2005) Need to document important environmental thresholds
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