Thunderstorm Forecasting and Warnings in the US: Applications to the Veneto Region
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1 Thunderstorm Forecasting and Warnings in the US: Applications to the Veneto Region Bill Conway Vice President Weather Decision Technologies Norman, Oklahoma, USA Andrea Rossa ARPAV Lead Scientist Centre Meteorological di Teolo Teolo, Italy
2 Who am I and Why am I here? Bill Conway Weather Decision Technologies (private US company) specialty radar meteorology and systems design work with ARPAV on the Hydromet Decision Support System HDSS automated weather detections and predictions My Presentation: discuss thunderstorm forecasting methods in the US show applications of HDSS in the US and Veneto
3 Weather Related Deaths in the US 30 year total fatalities~ 17,190* Estimated over 200,00 injured* *There are 3X more deaths and injurie in car accidents in a single year!
4 Weather Damage Costs in the US Does not include events less than 1 billion USD! (700,000 euro) Total 560 billion USD (395 milardi euro) Hurricanes most costly Katrina 125 billion USD (87 milardi euro) Thunderstorms 16 billion USD (11.2 milardi euro) Floods 62.4 billion USD (43.6 milardi euro)
5 US National Weather Service 136 regional offices Operate 24 hours a day Responsible for all public forecasts and warnings Responsible for aviation forecasts 2006 Budget: 270 million USD (190 milioni euro) Norman, Oklahoma US center for thunderstorm forecasting and research
6 US National Weather Radar Network (460 Km coverage map) S-band radars (WSR-88D) First radar installed in 1988 Located at regional NWS offices Cost 6 billion USD (4.2 miliardi euro) WSR-88D All data go to the regional NWS offices and the National Climatic Data Center in real-time
7 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma National Severe Storms Laboratory US center for severe storms research over 400 positions in Norman National Weather Service meteorology, computer science regional forecasts and warnings and support Storm Prediction Center US center for national thunderstorm forecasts WSR-88D Radar Center US center for radar network University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology (250 students) One of the top schools in the world for thunderstorm studies
8 Storm Prediction Center Forecasts areas of severe thunderstorms out to 8 days in advance Severe thunderstorm watch (blue) Tornado watch (red) Forecast specific areas of severe weather by provid severe thunderstorm or tornado watches Maintain a database of severe weather reports General thunderstorm area (brown) Slight risk of severe thunderstorms (green Moderate risk of severe thunderstorms (re High risk of severe thunderstorms (not shown here)
9 Storm Prediction Center Watch Boxes Severe Thunderstorm Watch expect non-tornadic thunderstorms with hail greater than 2 cm in diameter and/or winds greater than 90 km/hr Tornado Watch expect severe thunderstorms with the possibility of tornadoes Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch expect severe thunderstorms with the possibility of long track strong tornadoes
10 When Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Occur! National Weather Service Offices issue severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings Television and radio broadcast the warnings Sirens are activated
11 Severe Weather Verification Severe weather is reported by police, the public, storm chasers, and others All reports are sent to the Storm Prediction Center Tornado kills 10, injures 48
12 Damaging Winds (non-tornadic) Shelf clouds, leading edge of very strong winds
13 Flash Floods
14 Lightning
15 Hail
16 Tornadoes Wedge F5 tornado the worst type! Satellite vortex tornado
17 F5 Tornado Damage
18 Radar s Satellite Numerical Models Data Integration Thunderstorm, damaging winds, hail, predictions Precipitation Estimates and Predictions Upper Air Hydromet Decision Support System Lightning Predictions Lightning Flash Flood Predictions
19 WDT Central Computer Facility (1.7 million USD in computers 1.2 milione euro)
20 National High Resolution Mosaic of all Radars
21 Example of HDSS in the US (electricity generation company) 30 minute lightning prediction
22 ARPAV HDSS Web Page 3 radars 3D radar mosaic rainfall amounts radar forecasts flash flood prediction Integrates Teolo, Lonco ENAV radars, model, satellite, rain gauge dat storm, high winds, tornado prediction lightning prediction Can be accessed 24 ho a day through the intern Expandable to ingest an number of radars hail prediction looping, mapping Can be customized for any location animation
23 Storm Alerts and Predictions hail size automated ranking of storms in order of severity tornado predictions (blue) storm predictions (white) map options
24 Flash Flood Prediction Basin table alerts Basin map alerts
25 Examples of ARPAV Customer Pages Future projects: Include more radars Continue to improve results Continue to add new customers Install in other locations in Italy
26 Texas Tornado Signature (far range from the radar) Reflectivity notch Strong velocity couplet
27 Very Close Range Tornado! (Enterprise Radar Factory) Reflectivity hook echo Debris inside tornado
28 Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions Within the outlook areas (previous slide) there are small scale analysis to determine which type of watch to issue
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