Strategies for dealing with sea level rise
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- Tyler Kennedy
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1 Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for dealing with sea level rise Hugo Kind Strategic Coordinator Climate Adaptation Preparedness and societal development Urban and community planning
2 Heavy rain CITY OF STAVANGER
3 Heavy wind CITY OF STAVANGER
4 ..heavy wind.. CITY OF STAVANGER
5 CITY OF STAVANGER
6 «Worst case»..complexed scenario Exstreme percipitation - wind sea leval rise storm surge - waves - cold CITY OF STAVANGER
7 Stavanger, oktober 2100? CITY OF STAVANGER
8 Sea leval rise 2100? CITY OF STAVANGER
9 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
10 Stavanger - Norway's densest populated municipality 71,2 km innbyggere Founded in 1125 Ups- and downs Sailing ship industry Canning industry Shipping Oil and gas STAVANGER KOMMUNE This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No Topic: SCC : Smart Cities and Communities Nature based solutions
11 An overview on the city landscape Short distance to the sea Several lakes Few big areas of green, but a well established green structure Few big waterways Densely populated living areas The largest wooden town in Europe (?) STAVANGER KOMMUNE This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No Topic: SCC : Smart Cities and Communities Nature based solutions
12 The city center STAVANGER KOMMUNE
13
14 Challenges STAVANGER KOMMUNE
15 Sea level rise Western Norway gets the most sea leval rise in Norway due to less land rise The predictions are a 79 cm rise by 2100 In the master plan for Stavanger city center: areas lower than 3 meters above sea level can be flood exposed by combination of future sea rise and storm flood and waves Thematic map «Flood measures», Master plan for Stavanger city center STAVANGER KOMMUNE This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No Topic: SCC : Smart Cities and Communities Nature based solutions
16 Approach in dealing with climate change and adaptation NORADAPT Community Adaptation & Vulnerability in Norway Startdato: Sluttdato: Cities of the Future Municipality master plan Social element Land-use element Municipality sectorplan Climate & environment CITY OF STAVANGER
17 Adapting to a changing climate Participation in research projects Help to make the municipality able to cope with a future changed climate Specific risk and vulnerability assessments of climate change Develop climate change adaptation plan Protecting a good level of sociatal safety in a future changed climate The need today is to lay down rules and guidelines to ensure: Good and safe surface water management and densification of quality Safe development in: Landslide and flood-prone areas Areas with risk of sea level rise CITY OF STAVANGER
18 Møte om Nytte-kostnadsanalyse av konsekvenser ved oversvømmelse fra hav og kraftig nedbør Stavanger Mette Dalsgaard Arne Bernt Hasling APRIL 2017 NKA KLIMATILPASNING TROMSØ OG STAVANGER
19 Overall results cost / benefit analyses IPCC 8.5 scenario Storm Surge level 200 cm Flood protection is calculated by use of wall / masonry to protect 80% Nettonåtidsverdi (mill. NOK) Skadekostnader uten tiltak Skadekostnader med tiltak Afværget skade Tiltakskostnader 910 Nettogevinst Omkostninger ved skader og tiltak APRIL 2017 NKA KLIMATILPASNING TROMSØ OG STAVANGER
20 Anywhere Horizon 2020 EnhANcing emergency management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events ( ) CITY OF STAVANGER
21 ANYWHERE & Ferrara Storm Surge Modelling City of Stavanger have long been concerned about to developing better data and knowledge base related to challenges towards the sea, such as extreme weather, storm and wave impacts There are no good enough supervisors to handle, for example, wave challenges We believe that Anywhere's project is best served to get as good input data as possible, to achieve the project's goals, and not least solve the challenge of Stavanger CITY OF STAVANGER
22 RISK BASED DECISION SUPPORT Jan Håvard Skjetne Stavanger,
23 Why Local decision makers need more support to use weather forecasts The forecasts and prognoses are not targeted enough for local conditions and knowledge
24 Requirements for the Risk Analyser User requirement: Simple to use and use existing local knowledge Technical requirements: Easy to integrate Low cost Resilient & fault tolerant 24
25 Decision models Based on the risk and vulnerability analyses made by municipalities Assets Hazards Consequences Actions 26
26 Asset: A Hazard: Flood Rain: Heavy Wind: Svak vind Snow melting: Minimal Water level: Increasing Number of people: Risk for life and health: Big Probability for flooding: High Risk for houses and camping: Big Actions: Flood preventing measures and evacuation
27 The INDRA model for the evaluation of the impacts of storms: example of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy Clara Armaroli, Enrico Duo Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca
28 RESILIENCE-INCREASING STRATEGIES FOR COASTS TOOLKIT - EU FP7 (GA )
29 CRAF 1 Identification of sensitive areas (Hotspots) at the regional scale Ranking of hotspots on the basis CRAF 2 of the storm impact assessment (where to act first) Armaroli, Duo CFR
30 Application of the INDRA model to the city of Stavanger, Norway Armaroli, Duo - CFR
31 Armaroli, Duo - CFR Vidar 12. Januar 2017, 10:44 a.m.
32 Hazard map inundation simulation, Flood Depth Armaroli, Duo - CFR
33 Hazard map inundation simulation, Flood Depth Armaroli, Duo - CFR
34 Hazard map inundation simulation, Velocities Armaroli, Duo - CFR
35 Location of buildings Elevations
36 Transport system Local (hotspot) Regional
37 Flood protection Vågen STAVANGER KOMMUNE
38
39 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
40 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
41 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
42 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
43 STAVANGER KOMMUNE
44 STORM SURGE HAZARD IN ANYWHERE REGIONAL-LOCAL SCALE (PILOT SITE: STAVANGER) 22th May 2018
45 1. Introduction The storm surge phenomenon produces an anomalous rise in water level. It is forced by wind-driven water circulation towards or away from the coast and by atmospheric pressure-driven changes of the water level; i.e. the inverse barometric effect (WMO 2011). French Coast Xynthia storm Feb-2010 Flooding of coastal areas UK east coast Xaver storm Dec-2013 Coastal erosion
46 2. Work flow WORK FLOW HAZARD STORM SURGE MODEL PAN-EUROPEAN SCALE HAZARD FORECAST (EFAS COAST) STORM SURGE MODEL REGIONAL SCALE HAZARD FORECAST INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL LOCAL SCALE IMPACT FORECAST IMPACT
47 MH-EWS 2. Work flow WORK FLOW European scale Regional scale Local scale
48 MH-EWS 2. Work flow STORM SURGE PRODUCTS European ID-PRD NAME SCALE Regional Local scale 100 Storm surge levels european 101 Significant wave height european 102 Peak wave period european 103 Peak wave direction european 104 Storm surge hazard level european 107 Sea surface level regional 108 Significant wave height regional 109 Peak wave period regional 110 Peak wave direction regional 111 Erosion-accretion local 112 Maximum flow velocity map local 113 Maximum inundation depth map local 114 Shoreline retreat local 115 Hazard inundation layer local 116 Hazard erosion layer (dry beach width) local 106 Safe Corridor Width (at some specific points) local
49 EFAS-COAST MODEL VALIDATION: ASTRONOMICAL TIDE 3. Storm surge early warning system at Pan-european scale: Methodology
50 3. Storm surge early warning system at Pan-European scale: Methodology EFAS-COAST MODEL VALIDATION: STORM SURGE MODEL MEASURED ABERDEEN %RMSE= 13 cm DEN HELDER %RMSE= 9 cm SMHI RATAN %RMSE= 15 cm
51 3. Example of application: Xaver Storm EFAS-COAST REAL STORM SURGE EVENT: Xaver Storm 5-7 December 2013
52 3. Example of application: Xaver Storm EFAS-COAST REAL STORM SURGE EVENT: Storm 5-7 December 2013
53 3. Example of application: Xaver Storm EFAS-COAST REAL STORM SURGE EVENT: Storm 5-7 December 2013 Spencer et al. 2015
54 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Modelling approach REGIONAL STORM SURGE MODEL: STAVANGER WAVE DIRECTION WAVE PERIOD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SEA SURFACE LEVEL Number of nodes: Boundary conditions: Water level from EFAS-COAST Resolution of the grid at the edge of the domain: ~4km Resolution of the grid at the coast: 60m in Stavanger area.
55 WL(cm) WL(m) 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Methodology REGIONAL STORM SURGE MODEL: STAVANGER MODEL VALIDATION REGIONAL MODEL MEASURED
56 WL(cm) 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Methodology REGIONAL STORM SURGE MODEL: STAVANGER MODEL VALIDATION
57 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application January 1993 REGIONAL STORM SURGE MODEL: STAVANGER REAL STORM SURGE EVENT: 12 January 2017 WAVE DIRECTION WAVE PERIOD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SEA SURFACE LEVEL
58 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application January 1993 REGIONAL STORM SURGE MODEL: STAVANGER REAL STORM SURGE EVENT: 12 January 2017 WAVE DIRECTION WAVE PERIOD SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT SEA SURFACE LEVEL
59 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Methodology LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER STAVANGER CITY STAVANGER AIRPORT
60 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY (MFV) MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
61 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH (MDIM) MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
62 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER (HIZ) MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
63 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
64 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER EROSION-ACCRETION MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
65 4. Storm surge Early Warning System at Regional and Local scale (Stavanger): Example of application LOCAL INUNDATION-EROSION MODEL: STAVANGER EROSION-ACCRETION MAXIMUM FLOW VELOCITY MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH HAZARD INUNDATION LAYER SAFE CORRIDOR WIDTH (SCW) EROSION-ACCRETION EROSION HAZARD LAYER (Dry Beach Width ) SHORELINE RETREAT
66 ANYWHERE & Ferrara Storm Surge Modelling Unfortenately City of Stavanger has not received any financial support in the Anywhere project, in addition to the contributions to our partners. However, via the Norwegian Environment Agency, from the Norwegian Space Center, we have received some fundings which we can use to obtain better local data as important input to Sintef and Ferrara. Satellite data combination may increase the amount of base data used for mapping and monitoring CITY OF STAVANGER
67 Pilot Project Copernicus Monitoring 2018 The plan is to develop a wave model outside Stavanger. Data from these calculations are compared with satellite data, this to be verified the precision level of such models The plan is to develop a wave model outside Stavanger. Data from these calculations are compared with satellite data, this to be verified the precision level of such models CITY OF STAVANGER
68 Copernicus In cooperation with the MET, a fine scale wave model is established, which in addition to taking in waves from the ocean, also calculate waves that are generated locally A comparison of Met and one of our nationally leading consultants in this field, Norconsult, as well as in consultation with the Norwegian Mapping Authority, will provide good "best practice input" for geo-stipulation in marine areas CITY OF STAVANGER
69 Wave Simulations Stavanger kommune Ole Johan Aarnes, Magnar Reistad & Birgitte Furevik Norwegian Meteorological Institute
70 Wave model SWAN - Grid resolution 250m Boundary values (spectra): Hourly data from offshore wave model 4km resolution Wind input: MEPS (atmospheric model) 2.5 km resolution Wind data every hour Bathymetri Data from Institute of Marine Research Period January January
71 Wave model SWAN Hourly output data: Significant wave height (Hs) Peak period (Tp) Peak direction (Pdir) Mean period (Tm01/Tm02) Mean direction (Mdir) Swell height (Hs-swell) Directional spreading (Dspr) 2D wave-spectra (probably not needed in this project) 72
72 73 Mean significant wave height Jan Jan. 2018
73 74 Maximum significant wave height Jan Jan. 2018
74 75 Validation of model - offshore
75 Hs simulation Vågen Time series of Hs for a position near Vågen in Stavanger 250m resolution is too coarse to give accurate results for Vågen A model with higher resolution is needed MET Norway is working on a new wave simulation with 50m resolution Wave data will be analysed together with measured water level data in Stavanger 76
76 Boknafjord com STAVANGER MAY
77 Boknafjord Heavy wave action in outer region Hs,200 = m Hs =5-6 m on open coasts in middle region Only faint or negligible ocean swell in fjords and protected regions (e. g. Stavanger) Local easterly wind waves up to Hs = 2.5 m STAVANGER MAY
78 Metocean data ocean swell From Design Basis Landfall C187-AI-Q-RE Swell waves are moderate < 0.5 m
79 STAVANGER MAY
80 P com STAVANGER MAY
81 Other interesting products og projects new dataset? CITY OF STAVANGER
82 Slogan Better than yesterday, but not so good as tomorrow!
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