Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO

Transcription

1 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO Thorkild Aarup - Stefano Belfiore IOC Secretariat Regional Workshop on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Challenges and Future Actions Cairo, November 2009

2 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO One planet, one ocean Founded in connection with the International Indian Ocean Expedition in 1960 as an UN body with functional autonomy the IOC since then has worked to promote international cooperation in marine research and protection. Monitoring the ocean and facilitating data exhange through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Developing tsunami and other sea level-related warning systems in vulnerable regions Building capacities in marine sciences and coastal planning and adaptation

3 UNESCO and climate change Climate knowledge: science, assessment, monitoring and early warning: WMO and UNESCO convenors UNESCO Plan of Action on Climate Change Building and maintaining the climate change knowledge base Promoting mitigation and adaptation to climate change Moving towards a climate neutral UNESCO

4 Global Ocean Observing System GOOS is a series of observation and monitoring programmes designed to: Monitor, understand and predict weather and climate Describe and forecast the state of the ocean, including living resources Improve management of marine and coastal ecosystems and resources Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution Protect life and property on coasts and at sea Enable scientific research

5 Implementation agents: GOOS Regional Alliances SAON SOOS 1st GOOS Regional Forum, Athens, Greece, nd GRA Forum, Nadi, Fiji, rd GRA Forum, Cape Town, S. Africa, th GRA Forum, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2008

6 The Global Sea Level Sea Level Observing System Core Network

7 Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility

8 Alexandria

9 IOC Coordination of Tsunami Warning Systems The IOC has successfully coordinated the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS) since In the aftermath of the Sumatra tsunami on December 26, 2004, the IOC received the mandate to assist all Member States in establishing three more tsunami and other ocean related hazards EWS. IOTWS CARIBE-EWS NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas)

10 Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS) Tsunamis in the NEAM zone Stefano Tinti

11 Regional Distribution of tsunamis 1650 BC to A.D 2008 Indian Ocean 5% Black Sea 2% Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean 6% Mediterranean Sea 14% ~ 1100 events Pacific Ocean 73%

12 Elevation maxima Elevation minima Stefano Tinti

13 End-to-End Tsunami Warning System

14 TWS ARCHITECTURE National Data Centers Data collection Data processing Quality control Network Management Seismology / GPS Sea Level Simulation/ Modelling All Data Tsunami Watch Network supervision Redundant RTWC Redundant RTWC RTWC Focal Points NTWC NTWC b NTWC Tsunami Warning

15 Virtual seismic network for NEAMTWS for RTWCs

16 Existing RT station Existing dial-up station Existing off-line station Non-public RT station Required RT station Seismic network of the ITWS

17 Coastal sea-level network of the ITWS

18 Status of TNCs and TWFPs

19 RTWCs Centre Core coverage IM (PT) Portugal, Northeastern Atlantic CEA (FR) France, Western Mediterranean DPC (IT) Italy, Adriatic Sea, Malta, Libya, Tunisia NOA (GR) Greece, Aegean Sea KOERI (TK) Turkey, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea GFZ acting as back-up and data centre NTWC RTWC

20 Coastal flooding and erosion

21 Changes in mean sea level result in changes in the frequency of flooding events For San Francisco, a 1-in-100 year flooding event has become a 1-in-10 year event! Courtesy of John Hunter, CSIRO Hobart

22 Coastal inundation hazards Hazard Tsunami Storm surge Wind-driven waves Frequency Magnitude (run-up) Decades to centuries From cm to meters Duration Hours to 1 day Impact Inundation and drainage surges Annual to decadal 1-2 meters or more Few hours to few days Single event inundation Area Local run-up Hydrological modelling Warning IOC programme Minutes to hours 12 hours to 2 days Annual to decadal 1-2 meters or more Hours to many days Multiple localized inundations Terrain modelling Sea level rise Ongoing but accelerating Average cm Ongoing Progressive sea level rise Terrain modelling Coastal erosion Ongoing but accelerating Several m/yr Ongoing Progressive Long-term trends 1-3 days Decades Decades TSU JCOMM JCOMM GLOSS ICAM

23 Coastal Flooding Sea Level Observations Data transmisison of observations in real time Wave propagation modelling Dissimination of watch & warnings Coastal Bathymetry and innundation Modelling Planning Adaptation ICZM/ICAM Seismic Obs Coastal inundation end-to-end systems Tsunamis Storm Surges Extreme Waves Climate Change

24 Adaptation to climate and coastal change Objectives Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Senegal UNDP & IOC $4 million ( ) Identification of vulnerable sites Implementation of pilot projects in adaptation National and regional adaptation strategies

25 CONTENT OF THE GUIDELINES The production of the guidelines has been facilitated with the generous support of the NOAA, the Government of Flanders and the WMO.

26 THE ICAM CONTEXT

27 THE HAZARDS DESCRIBED Rapid-onset hazards Cumulative, progressive or creeping hazards Tsunami Storm surge Extreme wind-forced waves Long-term sea-level rise Coastal erosion

28 IDENTIFYING AND QUANTIFYING THE HAZARDS Define the geographical limits of the coastal management area. Examine the historical records of coastal hazard impact events and shoreline change, also the regional and ocean-wide seismic records. Access information on hazard origins and propagation patterns, local, regional and far-field. Acquire and compile data on nearshore bathymetry and coastal topography. Determine the spatial parameters of hazard impact the exposure (e.g., by modelling or post-impact observation). Determine probabilities for hazard scenarios. Display exposure and probability results as hazard maps. Convey results of hazard assessment to risk and emergency managers.

29 MEASURING VULNERABILITY This section aims to guide the determination of the social, physical, economic and environmental vulnerabilities of coastal communities who may be affected by the possible impacts of inundation. It identifies the data requirements that are appropriate to the scale the management unit and the specific thematic dimension of vulnerability. It describes how these data may be gathered then processed to provide vulnerability levels for defined inundation scenarios. Procedures for vulnerability assessment in respect of natural hazards are documented in publications such as those of ISDR. While many aspects of the vulnerability of coastal communities to coastal hazards are common to community vulnerability to natural hazards in general, the section highlights consequences of hazard impacts of particular relevance to coastal areas.

30 TRANSFER: Alexandria case study Partners: EC/JRC, University of Bologna, University of Alexandria, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS) Vulnerability assessment of coastal population based on local statistics and survey data (UNU-EHS) and the assessment of physical fragility via high-resolution earth observation data (< = 1m)(EC- JRC) Combination of satellite imagery data and socioeconomic data based on local statistics and survey conditions within a city

31 ASSESSING THE RISK This section provides guidance in determining the likelihood of specified loss and damage to a coastal community, including its population, economy, supporting environment and its institutional structures caused by the impacts of the coastal hazards.

32 ENHANCING AWARENESS AND PREPAREDNESS Identify an appropriate early warning framework. Raise awareness of the risk at all levels in the community. Establish the key operational requirements of the early warning system. Prepare all levels of the community for emergency responses. MITIGATING THE RISK Procedures and information that policy makers should consider within ICAM when developing a risk mitigation strategy for the coastal hazards.

33 Summary of socioeconomic, environmental and institutional/political trade-offs of various hazard management approaches.

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35 Plan of action for the 50 th Anniversary Expo 2010 Shanghai Exhibition with UNESCO on Safety of settlements at risk from the effects of marine natural hazards Expo 2012 Yeosu 2 nd International Symposium on the Effects of climate change on the World s ocean JCOMM-IV

36 The IOC contribution Sustained efforts in ocean and coastal observations underpinning climate monitoring and adaptation Multi-hazard approach in addressing coastal hazards and extreme events Manuals and guides