1 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc. Activities at Addis Ababa University
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1 xä!s xbæ n!vrste A D D I S A B A B A U N I V E R S I T Y Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Research Activities at Addis Ababa University Gizaw Mengistu Dept. of Physics, Addis Ababa University 1 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
2 Outline 1 Climate Data Rescue Efforts 2 Precipitable Water from GPS: its role in improvement of conventional observation and models 3 Could Ozone Observation be tracer of troposphere-stratosphere/midlatitude-tropics interactions? 4 CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project 5 Making Ethiopian agriculture climate resilient: CCA into food security and sustainable development 6 Short Term Weather Forecast using BOLAM LAM 7 Summary 2 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
3 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts Complex topography Climate is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability in both spatial and temporal scales The Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and both the African and the Asian landmasses As a result, dense network observation is needed to understand drivers of climate and weather. But this is not realized due to Most of the stations are located over highlands Poor data quality, data gaps Also, models are not performing very well including reanalysis due to lack of sufficient observational constraints. 3 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
4 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 4 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
5 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 4 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
6 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 5 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
7 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 5 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
8 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 6 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
9 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts 7 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
10 1. Climate Data Rescue Efforts The high resolution data base could serve THORPEX objectives Similar rescue efforts on a daily time scale is underway for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature; also thinking of evaporation some works that related to this efforts Mengistu Tsidu, G. (2012): High resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: Homogenization, Reconstruction, and Gridding, J. Clim, under Revision Mengistu Tsidu, G. (2011): Climate change signals at local scale over Ethiopia: Insights from new gridded high resolution gauge, satellite, regional and climate model rainfalls, the first Climate change and Development in Africa (CCDA-1) Conference, October, 2011, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Zeleke T, Giorgi F, Mengistu Tsidu G and Diro G (2012): Spatial and Temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment Theoretical and Applied Climatology, in Submission Zeleke T, Giorgi F, Mengistu Tsidu G and Diro G (2012): Trend and frequency of drought over Ethiopia using observational and model driven indices, EGU meeting 8 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
11 2.Precipitable Water: GPS and Reanalysis Correlation of PWV from GPS with ECMWF reanalysis at 2 GPS stations: Addis Ababa and Alemaya: 9 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
12 2.Precipitable Water: GPS and Reanalysis comparison Correlation of PWV with model at Addis Ababa: Annual time series for 2008: 10 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
13 2.Precipitable Water: GPS and Reanalysis comparison Correlation of PWV with model at 2 GPS stations: Addis Ababa and Alemaya: Assists in modelling tuning in RCMs; constrain GCM Could serve as proxy to precipitation: high potential predictability - THORPEX application 11 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
14 3. Ozone Dynamics? Intearaction between midlatitude and tropics through wave breaking Interaction between stratosphere and troposphere (STE) Coupling of PV intrusion from stratospheric to troposphere with convective events Deep convection (low OLR) nearly always occurs during intrusions as identified by Waugh and polvani (2000) in the pacific regions Upper-level PV initiates and supports convection by destabilizing the lower troposphere and causing upward motion (Kiladis,1998) 12 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
15 3. Ozone Dynamics Model proposed for PV-convection coupling (left) and well established STE mechanisms (right) 13 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
16 3. Ozone Dynamics Model proposed for PV-convection coupling (left) and well established STE mechanisms (right) 13 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
17 3. Ozone Dynamics: MOZAIC coverage 14 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
18 3. Ozone Dynamics: Equatorial Africa,ECMWF assimilated GOME ozone during observed elevated ozone events Left: Feb. 27, 1996; middle: Mar. 27, 1997; and right: Apr. 18, / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
19 3. Ozone Dynamics: Equatorial Africa,Equivalent latitude during observed elevated ozone events 16 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
20 3. Ozone Dynamics: Equatorial Africa,ECMWF assimilated GOME ozone during observed elevated MOZAIC ozone events 17 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
21 3. Ozone Dynamics: Equatorial Africa,Satellite cloud images during observed elevated MOZAIC ozone events March 27-28, / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
22 3. Ozone Dynamics: North Africa,observed elevated ozone events and sites of observation 19 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
23 3. Ozone Dynamics: North Africa,Potential Vorticity cross-section Tropopause shown by 2PVU (blue); flight level (red); black solid lines (isentropes) 20 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
24 3. Ozone Dynamics: North Africa,ECMWF assimilated GOME ozone 21 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
25 3. Ozone Dynamics: North Africa,Hovemueller Diagram for two selected events Vertically descending strong zonal wind (two left panels) has to be distinguished whether it is part of existing subtropical jet using Hovemueller diagram (two right panels). Ozone could assist in constraining GCM as a proxy to potential vorticity: high potential predictability - THORPEX application 22 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
26 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project EU Seventh Framework Program (FP7) Project; Duration 36 months (December 2010-November 2013); and 13 Research partners : 6 from Africa, 7 from Europe (EU) 6 African partners: Gaston Berger University, Sngal University of Ouagadougou, Burkina Fasso University of Yaound 1 ( ENSP), Cameroon Ardhi University Tanzania Addis Ababa University (EiABC), Ethiopia Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, South African 23 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
27 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project EU Seventh Framework Program (FP7) Project; Duration 36 months (December 2010-November 2013); and 13 Research partners : 6 from Africa, 7 from Europe (EU) 7 EU partners: AMRA, Italy (Coordinator) University of Copenhaguen, Denmark University of Manchester, UK Technical University of Munich, Germany Helmoltz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change Research, Italy Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research, Norwey 24 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
28 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project CLUVA objectives The overall objective of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities: manage climate risks, reduce vulnerabilities and improve coping capacity and resilience towards climate changes. CLUVA will assess the environmental, social and economic impacts and the risks of climate change induced hazards expected to affect urban areas (floods, sea-level rise, storm surges, droughts). 25 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
29 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project Impacts of Climatic Variations For instance according to the data from ministry of social affairs: in , there were seven flood problem and affected 362 households in 2007 there had been nine flood problems and affected 351 households in 2008, six flood problems and affected 317 households 26 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
30 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project Accomplishement so far: Draft Urban Morphology Types (UMT) agreed AGRICULTURE, VEGETATION, MINERALS, RECREATION AND CONSERVATION, TRANSPORT, UTILITITES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, RESIDENTIAL, COMMUNITY SERVICES, RETAIL, INDUSTRY and BUSINESS, CLEARED, WETLAND, CITY CENTRES high resolution RCMs data at 20 km is now available statistical downscaling to a site is going on 27 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
31 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project 28 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
32 4. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA) Project Expected Outputs and work to finish: Major problems: Road, Urban drainage, Waste water, Housing The contribution of improper management of these infrastructures and utilities to Climate change Mapping/indicating the prone areas Assessment of the outcome of vulnerability of the urban settlements in the city To define indicators to measure vulnerability as a consequence of the dominant hazard scenarios in Addis Ababa hydrological studies will continue 29 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
33 5. Making Ethiopian agriculture climate resilient Mean climatology of wind field 30 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
34 5. Making Ethiopian agriculture climate resilient Mean climatology of rainfall 31 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
35 6. Short Term Weather Forecast The model is running in experimental model Assessment of model skill has to be done Expect to extend to more lead days and also issue statistical forecast on extreme events once we are convertable. 32 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
36 4. Summary There are a number of work at universities that could serve the THORPEX purpose. We are also ready and flexible to work on specific case studies from THORPEX 33 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
37 THANK YOU!!! 34 / 34 Gizaw Mengistu Climate, Weather and their Impacts:THORPEX related Researc
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